Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction & Picks - LaLiga

Spain - LaLiga

Real Madrid
5/23/26 15:00
Athletic Bilbao

Prediction:

 

Madrid to win and under 3.5 goals

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 by Simon Day | in LaLiga Picks

Real Madrid's disappointing season comes to an end this Sunday, as they host midtable Bilbao in the final round of La Liga fixtures. 

Despite winning their last two fixtures, Madrid are still a whopping 11 points behind champions Barcelona and will finish the season without a trophy for just the second time in the last 16 years. With Jose Mourinho set to take over as Real manager in the Summer, a vital offseason lies ahead for Los Blancos as they attempt to build a side capable of mounting a serious title bid.

It has been a tricky season for Bilbao, as they have attempted to deal with injuries to several key players, such as Nico Williams and Oihan Sancet. Supporters won't be overly happy with their current 12th place position, but if incoming boss Edin Terzic can add a bit more of a cutting edge to the Bilbao attack, they look set for a much stronger seaosn next time around. 

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Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Form

Table

Teams Pts P W D L GD
2 Real Madrid
86 38 27 5 6 +42
12 Athletic Bilbao
45 38 13 6 19 -15

Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao Latest Matches

Real Madrid
Real Madrid Latest matches
W D W L W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2 Total goals
33% BTTS
1.33 Goals scored
0.67 Goals conceded
17% Over 2.5
83% Under 2.5

May 17, 2026 - LaLiga

Sevilla
0 :  1
Real Madrid

May 14, 2026 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
2 :  0
Real Oviedo

May 10, 2026 - LaLiga

Barcelona
2 :  0
Real Madrid

May 3, 2026 - LaLiga

Espanyol
0 :  2
Real Madrid

Apr 24, 2026 - LaLiga

Betis
1 :  1
Real Madrid

Apr 21, 2026 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
2 :  1
Alavés
W W L D W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
83% BTTS
2.17 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

May 14, 2026 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
2 :  0
Real Oviedo

Apr 21, 2026 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
2 :  1
Alavés

Apr 10, 2026 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
1 :  1
Girona

Apr 7, 2026 - Champions League

Real Madrid
1 :  2
Bayern Munich

Mar 22, 2026 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
3 :  2
Atletico Madrid

Mar 14, 2026 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
4 :  1
Elche
L L D W L W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.33 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

May 17, 2026 - LaLiga

Sevilla
0 :  1
Real Madrid

May 10, 2026 - LaLiga

Barcelona
2 :  0
Real Madrid

May 3, 2026 - LaLiga

Espanyol
0 :  2
Real Madrid

Apr 24, 2026 - LaLiga

Betis
1 :  1
Real Madrid

Apr 15, 2026 - Champions League

Bayern Munich
4 :  3
Real Madrid

Apr 4, 2026 - LaLiga

Mallorca
2 :  1
Real Madrid
Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao Latest matches
W L W L L D
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.33 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

May 17, 2026 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
1 :  1
Celta Vigo

May 13, 2026 - LaLiga

Espanyol
2 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

May 10, 2026 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
0 :  1
Valencia

May 2, 2026 - LaLiga

Alavés
2 :  4
Athletic Bilbao

Apr 25, 2026 - LaLiga

Atletico Madrid
3 :  2
Athletic Bilbao

Apr 21, 2026 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
1 :  0
Osasuna
L W L W L D
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.83 Total goals
50% BTTS
0.83 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

May 17, 2026 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
1 :  1
Celta Vigo

May 10, 2026 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
0 :  1
Valencia

Apr 21, 2026 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
1 :  0
Osasuna

Apr 12, 2026 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
1 :  2
Villarreal

Mar 22, 2026 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
2 :  1
Betis

Mar 7, 2026 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
0 :  1
Barcelona
L L L L W L
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

5/6 (83%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals
33% BTTS
1 Goals scored
2.17 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

May 13, 2026 - LaLiga

Espanyol
2 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

May 2, 2026 - LaLiga

Alavés
2 :  4
Athletic Bilbao

Apr 25, 2026 - LaLiga

Atletico Madrid
3 :  2
Athletic Bilbao

Apr 5, 2026 - LaLiga

Getafe
2 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

Mar 14, 2026 - LaLiga

Girona
3 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

Mar 4, 2026 - Copa del Rey

Real Sociedad
1 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

Real Madrid against Athletic Bilbao : Head to Head (H2H)

Real Madrid

67 %

Draw

17 %

Athletic Bilbao

17 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

2.17
Total goals
33.33%
BTTS
1.67
Goals scored
0.5
Goals conceded
33.33%
Over 2.5
66.67%
Under 2.5

Dec 3, 2025 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
0 :  3
Real Madrid

Apr 20, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
1 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

Dec 4, 2024 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
2 :  1
Real Madrid

Mar 31, 2024 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
2 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

Aug 12, 2023 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
0 :  2
Real Madrid

Jun 4, 2023 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
1 :  1
Athletic Bilbao
Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Picks

Real Madrid against Athletic Bilbao Lineups: Starting 11

Real Madrid

Formation : 4 - 4 - 2

1
T. Courtois
2
D. Carvajal
17
R. Asencio
4
D. Alaba
18
A. Carreras
30
F. Mastantuono
45
T. Pitarch Pinar
8
F. Valverde
5
J. Bellingham
16
G. Garcia
10
K. Mbappe
11
G. Guruzeta
23
R. Navarro
20
U. Gomez
9
I. Williams
18
M. Jauregizar
16
I. Ruiz De Galarreta
19
A. Boiro
4
A. Paredes
5
Y. Alvarez
3
D. Vivian
27
A. Padilla

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

Athletic Bilbao

Substitutes

Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Goalkeeper

A. Gonzalez

A. Lunin

Defender

F. Garcia

M. Serrano

D. Carvajal 82'

D. Huijsen

D. Alaba 69'

A. Ruediger

Midfielder

A. Tchouameni

E. Camavinga

D. Ceballos

J. Bellingham 73'

Forward

B. Diaz

F. Mastantuono 74'

A. Guler

G. Garcia 73'

Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao
Goalkeeper

U. Simon

Defender

A. Laporte

J. Areso

A. Gorosabel

Y. Alvarez 46'

I. Lekue

I. Ruiz De Galarreta 60'

Midfielder

B. Prados

A. Rego Mora

U. Gomez 60'

M. Vesga

M. Jauregizar 86'

Forward

E. Gift

N. Serrano

U. Izeta

G. Guruzeta 74'

M. Sannadi

Missing players

Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Defender

T. Alexander-Arnold

F. Mendy

E. Militao

Forward

Rodrygo

Endrick

Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao
Defender

Y. Berchiche

U. Egiluz

Midfielder

O. Sancet

Forward

N. Williams

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Real Madrid
CD Huachipato Athletic Bilbao
Top Goalscorer
France K. Mbappe (25 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Spain G. Guruzeta (10 Goals)
Best assists
Turkey A. Guler (9 Assists)
Best assists
Spain Y. Berchiche (6 Assists)
Ghana I. Williams (6 Assists)

Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao Key Points

  1. There have been under 3.5 goals in each of Madrid's last 6 games
  2. There have been under 3.5 goals in each of the last 13 Madrid-Bilbao matches
  3. There have been under 3.5 goals in each of Bilbao's last 3 games
  4. Bilbao have won just 1 of their last 7 away games
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Our Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction

Whilst we are expecting Madrid to complete their season with a routine victory, we aren't expecting too much excitement at the Santiago Bernabéu on Sunday night. 

Despite their array of world class attacking players, most of Madrid's recent games have been fairly drab affairs, with the likes of Kylian Mbappe, Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Junior all below their best. 

When you also factor in Bilbao's misfiring attack but reasonably strong defence, it all points towards a low scoring end to the season.

Our prediction for Real Madrid vs Athletic Club Bilbao is: Madrid to win and under 3.5 goals.

Prediction:

 

Madrid to win and under 3.5 goals

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$200 offered for betting!

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.