Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu Prediction & Picks - Noche UFC
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by Stephen Abiola in UFC Picks
Rafa Garcia (19-4-0) and Rongzhu (28-6-0) will clash in the UFC Lightweight division on Saturday night at the Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona. Rafa Garcia is currently enjoying a career surge after winning his last three assignments. In fact, the “Gifted” has lost just once in his last six assignments. He defeated Alexander Hernandez in April this year via a decision win to build on his KO win over Jared Gordon in September last year. Garcia is the exciting +133 underdog this weekend.
Like Garcia, Rongzhu is also enjoying a career surge in the division, winning six of his last seven assignments. He defeated Victor Martinez via a Round 1 KO punch in May this year to extend his winning streak to three fights. His last defeat was in September 2024 against Chris Padilla following an eye punch that forced the doctors to enter the Octagon. We don’t see any shame in that, considering Padilla is among the most in-form fighters in the division currently.
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Rafa Garcia - Rongzhu Key Points
- Rongzhu is 6-1 in his last seven fights all-time.
- The fight went the distance three times in the last two Rongzhu wins.
- The fight went the distance in five of the last seven Rafa Garcia bouts.
- The fight went the distance in three of the last four Rafa Garcia bouts.
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Our Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu Prediction
This will be an interesting fight, with Rongzhu being the -186 betting favorite. At only 26 years old, “The Yama King” has already faced some of the best names in the game, including a victorious title fight against Shin Haraguchi in February 2024. The Chinese also has a 1-inch reach advantage, which could prove pivotal in the close contest against Garcia. However, Garcia has what it takes to match Rongzhu on his feet. The Mexican has scored an average of 4.28 significant strikes per minute. Still, his opponent outperforms him in this area, averaging 6.05 significant strikes per minute with a 51% success rate. Rongzhu should win if both fighters stay on their feet.
Our prediction for Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu: Rongzhu to win.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
