Rafa Garcia vs Alexander Hernandez Prediction & Picks - UFC Fight Night
MMA - UFC Fight Night
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by Bill Christy | in MMA Picks
A couple of fighters from the lightweight division who have won 4 of their last 5 fights will clash on Saturday night. Rafa Garcia (18-4-0) and Alexander Hernandez (18-8-0) will fight and only one fight will see their win streak extend.
Alexander Hernandez has won 4 straight fights, with the last two coming via KO/TKO. He stunned up-and-coming Chase Hooper in August of 2025 and followed that up with a finish of Diego Ferreira in the 2nd round of their bout less than a month later. Hernandez has looked like a fighter primed to break into the rankings of the division.
Rafa Garcia has picked up victories in his last 2 fights. He went to war with veteran Vinc Pichel in March of 2025, where he won by unanimous decision. Following that, he finished Jared Gordon late in the fight on the same card where Hernandez defeated Ferreira.
While both fighters are coming into this bout off of solid victories, we believe one has the power advantage, and one has the grappling advantage. While Garcia knows how to grapple, he is going to have a hard time getting close to Hernandez, who will make him eat heavy shots on every entry.
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Rafa Garcia - Alexander Hernandez Key Points
- Hernandez is 4-0 in his last 4 fights.
- Hernandez has 8 of his 18 wins via KO/TKO.
- Garcia has a 2in reach disadvantage in this fight.
- Garcia’s last loss came via KO/TKO.
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Our Rafa Garcia vs Alexander Hernandez Prediction
Garcia has not been able to string together more than 2 wins in a row in over 6 years. We believe that will continue here as he is facing a red-hot Alexander Hernandez. With a win here, Hernandez will be extremely close to getting that division ranking and we believe he is going to make the most of this opportunity. We would not be surprised if he gets his 3rd KO finish, but the money line is short enough to take him to just win.
Our prediction for Rafa Garcia vs Alexander Hernandez: Hernandez to win
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