Queretaro vs Deportivo Toluca FC Prediction & Picks - Liga MX
Mexico - Liga MX
New customers only | Commercial content | 21+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Erik Gibbs | in Liga MX Picks
Queretaro and Deportivo Toluca FC meet at the Estadio Corregidora this Saturday in a fixture that highlights the widening gap between the league's elite and those struggling to stay relevant in the Clausura 2026 standings. As we reach the business end of the season, the home side finds itself languishing near the bottom of the table, desperately searching for a spark to ignite a late-season surge. Their recent form has been nothing short of disappointing, characterized by a lack of offensive identity and a backline that has consistently crumbled under pressure. While they have managed to scrape together a few draws at home, the lack of clinical finishing has left them vulnerable to teams that can transition quickly from defense to attack.
In stark contrast, Deportivo Toluca FC has been a model of consistency and tactical discipline throughout the campaign. Currently sitting in third place, the visitors have played some of the most attractive football in Mexico this year, blending a high-press system with intricate passing in the final third. Their recent results have solidified their status as genuine title contenders, with a string of impressive victories that have showcased their depth and adaptability. Whether playing at high altitude or at sea level, the Diablos Rojos have maintained a relentless tempo that most opponents have found impossible to mirror. Their ability to dictate the rhythm of the game from the midfield out has been the hallmark of their success, making them a daunting prospect for a Queretaro side that often struggles to maintain possession for extended periods.
Limited Offer. Currently at FanDuel
Queretaro vs Deportivo Toluca FC Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5
|
30 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | +12 |
|
11
|
20 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | -4 |
Queretaro and Deportivo Toluca FC Latest Matches
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 21, 2026 - Liga MX
Mar 15, 2026 - Liga MX
Mar 7, 2026 - Liga MX
Mar 4, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 27, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 14, 2026 - Liga MX
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 7, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 27, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 7, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 1, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 14, 2026 - Liga MX
Nov 2, 2025 - Liga MX
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 21, 2026 - Liga MX
Mar 15, 2026 - Liga MX
Mar 4, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 14, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 17, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 11, 2026 - Liga MX
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 22, 2026 - Liga MX
Mar 18, 2026 - Concachampions
Mar 14, 2026 - Liga MX
Mar 11, 2026 - Concachampions
Mar 8, 2026 - Liga MX
Mar 3, 2026 - Liga MX
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 18, 2026 - Concachampions
Mar 14, 2026 - Liga MX
Mar 8, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 28, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 13, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 7, 2026 - Liga MX
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 22, 2026 - Liga MX
Mar 11, 2026 - Concachampions
Mar 3, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 21, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 30, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 17, 2026 - Liga MX
Queretaro against Deportivo Toluca FC : Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
17 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
Oct 18, 2025 - Liga MX
Feb 26, 2025 - Liga MX
Oct 18, 2024 - Liga MX
Jan 12, 2024 - Liga MX
Oct 8, 2023 - Liga MX
Mar 5, 2023 - Liga MX
Queretaro against Deportivo Toluca FC Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
L. Villegas Garcia
DefenderF. Venegas
C. Villanueva
J. Gomez
MidfielderB. Parra
L. Rodriguez
M. Carcelen
J. Unjanque
ForwardJ. Robles
E. Perez Reyes
H. Gonzalez Duran
DefenderB. Mendez
A. Briseno
Luan
J. Gallardo
V. Arteaga
F. Cordova
S. Simon
A. Vega
F. Rossi
Missing players
Omar Mendoza
M. Ruiz
Most goals and assists
Queretaro
Deportivo Toluca FC
A. Avila
(5 Goals)
, 
M. Coronel
(5 Goals)
Paulinho
(6 Goals)
C. Adriano
(2 Assists)
, 
J. Julio
(2 Assists)
J. Gallardo
(4 Assists)
Queretaro - Deportivo Toluca FC Key Points
- The Over is 4-1 in Queretaro's last 5 games
- The Over is 3-2 in Toluca's last 5 games
- Queretaro are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
- Toluca are 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games
Limited Offer. Currently at FanDuel
Our Queretaro vs Deportivo Toluca FC Prediction
The visiting side has been buoyed by the exceptional form of Alexis Vega, who has been pulling the strings in a creative role, and the veteran presence of Héctor Herrera in the heart of the pitch. During this recent stretch, Herrera's vision and composure have allowed Toluca to navigate high-pressure situations with ease. Defensively, Federico Pereira remains a pillar of strength, though there are minor concerns regarding a knock he picked up recently that might limit his mobility. For Queretaro, the weight of the team has fallen largely on the shoulders of Mateo Coronel, whose work rate is undeniable but whose service has been severely limited. Ali Avila has shown flashes of brilliance but lacks the support needed to truly threaten organized defenses.
The injury report for the hosts is a bit more concerning, as they are currently without key defensive reinforcements, leaving them thin at the back. When evaluating the overall outlook, it is difficult to look past the visitors. Toluca possesses superior quality in every department and enters this match with a massive psychological advantage given their current trajectory. Queretaro will likely sit deep and hope to catch the favorites on the counter-attack, but the technical precision of the Toluca midfield should eventually find the cracks in a weary defense. Everything points toward a comfortable afternoon for the side from the State of Mexico as they look to secure their spot in the upper echelon of the playoff seedings. Our prediction for Queretaro vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Over 2.5 goals.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
