Portugal vs Spain Prediction & Picks - World Cup
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by Bradley Gibbs | in World Cup Picks
Not for the first time, the World Cup will give us The Iberian Derby on Monday, when Portugal and Spain will battle out for a place in the quarter-finals. No strangers to warm weather, the neighbouring countries will clash in the Texan sunshine.
Unlike the Spanish, who cruised into the Round-of-16 thanks to a commanding performance against the Austrians, who never landed a glove on a dominant La Roja team, the Portuguese flirted with an early exit against the Croats, first going behind, before being generously handed a soft penalty, which has not been the norm at this tournament. A late goal from Ramos preceded VAR heartbeat for Croatia to send Roberto Martinez's men through, but they’ll now need to improve if they want to extend their stay further.
Based on what we’ve seen from the pair at this tournament so far, especially during the first knockout round, the Spanish deserve to be strong favorites, perhaps even to the point where odds of -105 are a little generous.
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Portugal vs Spain Form
Portugal and Spain Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Jul 2, 2026 - World Cup
Jun 27, 2026 - World Cup
Jun 23, 2026 - World Cup
Jun 17, 2026 - World Cup
Jun 10, 2026 - International Friendlies
Jun 6, 2026 - International Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Jul 2, 2026 - World Cup
Jun 23, 2026 - World Cup
Jun 17, 2026 - World Cup
Jun 10, 2026 - International Friendlies
Jun 6, 2026 - International Friendlies
Nov 16, 2025 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Jun 27, 2026 - World Cup
Mar 31, 2026 - International Friendlies
Mar 28, 2026 - International Friendlies
Nov 13, 2025 - World Cup
Sep 9, 2025 - World Cup
Sep 6, 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Jul 2, 2026 - World Cup
Jun 26, 2026 - World Cup
Jun 21, 2026 - World Cup
Jun 15, 2026 - World Cup
Jun 8, 2026 - International Friendlies
Jun 4, 2026 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Jul 2, 2026 - World Cup
Jun 21, 2026 - World Cup
Jun 15, 2026 - World Cup
Jun 8, 2026 - International Friendlies
Jun 4, 2026 - International Friendlies
Mar 31, 2026 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Jun 26, 2026 - World Cup
Nov 15, 2025 - World Cup
Sep 7, 2025 - World Cup
Sep 4, 2025 - World Cup
Jun 8, 2025 - UEFA Nations League
Mar 20, 2025 - UEFA Nations League
Portugal against Spain : Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
83 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
Jun 8, 2025 - UEFA Nations League
Sep 27, 2022 - UEFA Nations League
Jun 2, 2022 - UEFA Nations League
Jun 4, 2021 - International Friendlies
Oct 7, 2020 - International Friendlies
Jun 15, 2018 - World Cup
Portugal - Spain: Form Analysis
Have we seen enough from the Portuguese to seriously suggest that they can get the better of what is a very strong Spanish team? Well, a year ago, we did see Portugal pip Spain to the UEFA Nations League title, with the pair tying 2-2 before Martinez’s team triumphed on penalties. However, they were outplayed for most of that contest and were very fortunate to end the 90 minutes level. Arguably, they’ve not improved since and let’s face it, they’ve not been overly fluent at this tournament.
However, they were outplayed for most of that contest and were very fortunate to end the 90 minutes level. Arguably, they’ve not improved since and let’s face it, they’ve not been overly fluent at this tournament.
You could say the same for La Roja, who obviously disappointed by tying 0-0 with Cape Verde in their opening match at this World Cup. However, they have bounced back since, while they look much harder to getbeat than the Portuguese, while they simply have more offensive exuberance, especially in games that become quite open. Following their easy win over Austria, the confident Spanish should have what it takes to get the job done here.
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Spain v Portugal last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Substitutes
J. Sa
R. Silva
DefenderT. Araujo
S. Costa
G. Inacio
N. Semedo
D. Dalot
MidfielderM. Nunes
R. Neves
B. Silva
ForwardG. Guedes
F. Conceicao
G. Ramos
Joao Felix
F. Trincao
J. Garcia
D. Raya
DefenderA. Grimaldo
M. Llorente
E. Garcia
M. Pubill
MidfielderF. Ruiz
M. Zubimendi
M. Merino
Gavi
ForwardY. Pino
B. Iglesias
N. Williams
V. Munoz
F. Torres
Missing players
N. Williams
Portugal & Spain Squad Analysis
Roberto Martinez probably won’t be keen to tinker with the Portugal lineup too much. Cristiano Ronaldo was visibly unhappy about coming off late on against Croatia, and any other player may be fearful of losing their spot, but he is once again expected to feature from the outset. After another positive contribution, Rafael Leao is expected to start also.
Cristiano Ronaldo was visibly unhappy about coming off late on against Croatia, and any other player may be fearful of losing their spot, but he is once again expected to feature from the outset.
For Spain, Mikel Oyarzabal was once again a key player during the Round-of-32, netting not once but twice, taking his tournament tally to four goals. He’ll be the main man up top for this clash, while Spanish boss Luis de la Fuente is unlikely to drop Dani Olmo, Lamine Yamal or Alex Baena, all of whom played well in offense against the Austrians.
Most goals and assists
Portugal
Spain
Cristiano Ronaldo
(3 Goals)
M. Oyarzabal
(4 Goals)
P. Neto
(1 Assists)
,
J. Cancelo
(1 Assists)
,
B. Fernandes
(1 Assists)
,
R. Leao
(1 Assists)
M. Cucurella
(2 Assists)
Portugal - Spain Key Points
- The Portuguese have struggled at times in games against lesser teams than Spain at this tournament.
- The Spanish have won each of their last three games at this tournament without getting out of second gear.
- The Spanish are yet to concede a goal at the 2026 World Cup.
- The Portuguese have not beaten the Spanish at a major tournament since 2004.
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Our Portugal vs Spain Prediction
There will be plenty of people who believe that this Portugal team, spearheaded by a determined Cristiano Ronaldo, can cause an upset here, but if we really think about and consider all the available evidence, it’s very hard to make the case that Roberto Martinez’s men are generously priced at odds of +300. If anything, Seleção das Quinas should be slightly larger outsiders, meaning that the Spanish should be available at slightly shorter odds. Take the value that a price of -105 provides.
Our Portugal vs Spain Pick: Spain to Win.
Portugal vs Spain - Other Interesting Picks
Spain to Score Over 1.5 Goals
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Portugal vs Spain match : Frequently asked questions
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
