Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction & Picks - NBA

USA - NBA

Oklahoma City Thunder
5/26/25 20:30
Minnesota Timberwolves

Prediction:

 

Timberwolves +3.5

-114
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 by Carlos Zabala in NBA Picks

At the Paycom Center, the Oklahoma City Thunder took Game 1 of the series against the Timberwolves 114-108 thanks to 31 points from Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder also took Game 2, winning 118-103 with their star scoring 38 points and the Thunder shooting 50% from the field. However, the series took an unexpected turn in Minneapolis, with the T-Wolves delivering a 42-point thrashing that bookmakers, bettors, and NBA enthusiasts hadn't anticipated.

For that first game at Target Field, the Timberwolves started as 3-point underdogs, a line that remained firm with no sudden changes on the betting sites until the tip-off.

The T-Wolves' lopsided Game 3 result raises the question of whether the Thunder really have this series wrapped up. 117 points is the lowest the T-Wolves have managed at Target Center in their past three games there. It was perhaps the Thunder's weakest game of the season, and they committed 14 turnovers. Gilgeous-Alexander went 4-for-13 shooting before being substituted when the game was already wide open in Minnesota's favor late in the third quarter.

The Thunder star commented that he felt his team "eased into the game" and that the T-Wolves didn't. A 20-point first-quarter loss demoralized any chance of a comeback. Still, Oklahoma leads the series 2-1.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Form

Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves Latest Matches

Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder Latest matches
W L W W W L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

May 24, 2025 - NBA

Oklahoma City Thunder
101 :  143
Minnesota Timberwolves

May 22, 2025 - NBA

Minnesota Timberwolves
103 :  118
Oklahoma City Thunder

May 20, 2025 - NBA

Minnesota Timberwolves
88 :  114
Oklahoma City Thunder

May 18, 2025 - NBA

Denver Nuggets
93 :  125
Oklahoma City Thunder

May 15, 2025 - NBA

Oklahoma City Thunder
107 :  119
Denver Nuggets

May 13, 2025 - NBA

Denver Nuggets
105 :  112
Oklahoma City Thunder
L W W W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

May 22, 2025 - NBA

Minnesota Timberwolves
103 :  118
Oklahoma City Thunder

May 20, 2025 - NBA

Minnesota Timberwolves
88 :  114
Oklahoma City Thunder

May 18, 2025 - NBA

Denver Nuggets
93 :  125
Oklahoma City Thunder

May 13, 2025 - NBA

Denver Nuggets
105 :  112
Oklahoma City Thunder

May 7, 2025 - NBA

Denver Nuggets
106 :  149
Oklahoma City Thunder

May 5, 2025 - NBA

Denver Nuggets
121 :  119
Oklahoma City Thunder
W W L W L L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

May 24, 2025 - NBA

Oklahoma City Thunder
101 :  143
Minnesota Timberwolves

May 15, 2025 - NBA

Oklahoma City Thunder
107 :  119
Denver Nuggets

May 11, 2025 - NBA

Oklahoma City Thunder
92 :  87
Denver Nuggets

May 9, 2025 - NBA

Oklahoma City Thunder
104 :  113
Denver Nuggets

Apr 26, 2025 - NBA

Oklahoma City Thunder
117 :  115
Memphis Grizzlies

Apr 24, 2025 - NBA

Oklahoma City Thunder
114 :  108
Memphis Grizzlies
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves Latest matches
W W W L L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

May 24, 2025 - NBA

Oklahoma City Thunder
101 :  143
Minnesota Timberwolves

May 22, 2025 - NBA

Minnesota Timberwolves
103 :  118
Oklahoma City Thunder

May 20, 2025 - NBA

Minnesota Timberwolves
88 :  114
Oklahoma City Thunder

May 14, 2025 - NBA

Golden State Warriors
110 :  121
Minnesota Timberwolves

May 12, 2025 - NBA

Minnesota Timberwolves
117 :  110
Golden State Warriors

May 10, 2025 - NBA

Minnesota Timberwolves
102 :  97
Golden State Warriors
W W L W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

May 24, 2025 - NBA

Oklahoma City Thunder
101 :  143
Minnesota Timberwolves

May 14, 2025 - NBA

Golden State Warriors
110 :  121
Minnesota Timberwolves

May 8, 2025 - NBA

Golden State Warriors
93 :  117
Minnesota Timberwolves

May 6, 2025 - NBA

Golden State Warriors
99 :  88
Minnesota Timberwolves

Apr 27, 2025 - NBA

Los Angeles Lakers
113 :  116
Minnesota Timberwolves

Apr 25, 2025 - NBA

Los Angeles Lakers
104 :  116
Minnesota Timberwolves
L W W W L L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

May 22, 2025 - NBA

Minnesota Timberwolves
103 :  118
Oklahoma City Thunder

May 20, 2025 - NBA

Minnesota Timberwolves
88 :  114
Oklahoma City Thunder

May 12, 2025 - NBA

Minnesota Timberwolves
117 :  110
Golden State Warriors

May 10, 2025 - NBA

Minnesota Timberwolves
102 :  97
Golden State Warriors

Apr 30, 2025 - NBA

Minnesota Timberwolves
103 :  96
Los Angeles Lakers

Apr 22, 2025 - NBA

Minnesota Timberwolves
85 :  94
Los Angeles Lakers

Oklahoma City Thunder against Minnesota Timberwolves : Head to Head (H2H)

Oklahoma City Thunder

50 %

Minnesota Timberwolves

50 %

May 24, 2025 - NBA

Oklahoma City Thunder
101 :  143
Minnesota Timberwolves

May 22, 2025 - NBA

Minnesota Timberwolves
103 :  118
Oklahoma City Thunder

May 20, 2025 - NBA

Minnesota Timberwolves
88 :  114
Oklahoma City Thunder

Feb 24, 2025 - NBA

Minnesota Timberwolves
131 :  128
Oklahoma City Thunder

Feb 23, 2025 - NBA

Oklahoma City Thunder
130 :  123
Minnesota Timberwolves

Feb 13, 2025 - NBA

Oklahoma City Thunder
101 :  116
Minnesota Timberwolves

Oklahoma City Thunder - Minnesota Timberwolves: Form Analysis

Up until Saturday's loss, the Thunder had won three straight, winning the Western Conference with a 68-14 record, 16 games ahead of the second-place Rockets. In the playoffs, the Thunder swept the Grizzlies and survived a seven-game series against the Nuggets. In the betting world, the Thunder have been favorites in each of their last 10 games, and with their 2-1 series advantage over the T-Wolves, the Thunder remain favorites with an implied probability of over 50% to win the NBA championship.

The Timberwolves have never been to an NBA Finals. But in 2025, they repeated their 2024 success by reaching the Western Conference Finals, which also happened in 2004. Twenty-one years ago, they lost the Western Conference Finals to the Lakers; in 2024, they lost the same thing to the Mavericks, and for now, they are behind in the series against the Thunder.

However, the Game 3 rout is a statement that the T-Wolves refuse to miss the next Finals. It was the first time in playoff history that a team made 20 three-pointers and 30 assists. The T-Wolves had also started the series against the Warriors down and won 4 games to 1, and they did not lose against the Lakers in Minneapolis.

Oklahoma City Thunder & Minnesota Timberwolves Squad Analysis

Just as Gilgeous-Alexander devastated the T-Wolves in Games 1 and 2, he was nowhere to be seen in Game 3. The Thunder are more dependent on him in the playoffs than ever, and this could be a double-edged sword. He only played 27 minutes, scoring 14 points (no Thunder player scored more), grabbing two rebounds and dishing out six assists.

Meanwhile, T-Wolves star Edwards did make a significant impact in the game, taking over Minnesota's offensive duties from the first quarter onward. Edwards finished with 30 points and was well supported by Randle, who contributed another 24. Edwards took eight three-pointers, sinking five of them, and was inaccurate in game two, shooting just 1 of 9.

Finally, Shannon, Reid, Alexander-Walker, Edwards, Randle, and MacDaniels each scored in double figures in the 143-101 Game 3 rout.

Oklahoma City Thunder - Minnesota Timberwolves Key Points

  1. Four of the Timberwolves' last five games have resulted in a Game Total of OVER
  2. The T-Wolves shot 57% from the field in Game 3
  3. The T-Wolves scored 20 second-chance points in Game 3
  4. The two teams combined for 31 points off turnovers in the final game

Our Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction

The morale of the T-Wolves fans, players, and coaches is once again high, and they once again believe that tying this series on Monday is possible. The plan when Minnesota plays at home is clear: pressure the ball and take as many shots as possible; at least that's what Edwards stated. The Thunder's defense certainly looked uncharacteristically overpowered in the final third of the court, which worried Oklahoma coach Mark Daigneault. Our prediction for Timberwolves vs Thunder is: Timberwolves +3.5.

Prediction:

 

Timberwolves +3.5

-114
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves - Other Interesting Picks

Randle to score 20+ points

Odds +128
Even though Julios Randle had a poor Game 2 of the series, playing 31 minutes and recording only 6 points, he scored more than 20 points in 6 of his last 7 playoff games, with 24 being the most common, occurring three times in that span.
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Over 218.5 points

Odds -110
It would be normal for Gilgeous-Alexander to increase his Game 3 points tally, as the T-Wolves scored 20 three-pointers in Game 3 and overwhelmed a somewhat lax Thunder defense. Something similar is expected for Game 4.
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Picks