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by Matt Lowrimore in NBA Picks
Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder will continue on Friday night in Indiana. Let's take a look at the match statistics and predictions to see if the Thunder can bounce back or if the Pacers will take a commanding lead in the series.
Oklahoma City enters this game trailing in the series 2-1 after losing in Game 3 by a score of 116-107. Despite the loss, the Thunder had a balanced scoring effort, with four players scoring in double figures, three of whom scored at least 20 points. Jalen Williams led the Thunder in scoring, posting a team-high 26 points.
As for Indiana, they were able to defend their home court in Game 3 and bounce back from their Game 2 blowout loss. The Pacers now have a great opportunity in front of them to put themselves on the verge of an NBA Championship. Indiana put together a complete team effort in Game 4, with four players scoring in double figures, and three with 20 or more points. Bennedict Mathurin led the Pacers with 27 points off the bench.
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Form
Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers Latest Matches
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Oklahoma City Thunder against Indiana Pacers : Head to Head (H2H)
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Oklahoma City Thunder - Indiana Pacers: Form Analysis
The Pacers have been a solid home team in the playoffs, winning seven of their nine games. Further, the Pacers are averaging 118.1 points per game at home in the playoffs, while allowing 112 points per game. So far in these Finals, they've defied all of the odds and are now leading the series 2-1 thanks to both individual and team performances (notably on defense).
“The Pacers have won seven of their nine home playoff games.”
As for the Thunder, their road playoff record is now 4-4. The Thunder are averaging 108.8 points per game on the road, while allowing 115.9 points per game. Currently behind in the series, the Thunder have been present in all 3 of the matches so far in the Finals, losing the first game by a buzzer beater from Tyrese Haliburton.
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Oklahoma City Thunder & Indiana Pacers Squad Analysis
Indiana's run to the NBA Finals has had a lot to do with how balanced their offense is. Any of their starters, and even bench players, have shown the ability to take over a game at any time, and as such, they tend to have multiple players scoring big points.
“The Pacers have six players averaging 10 points per game or more in the playoffs.”
For the Thunder, they rely heavily on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Other players such as Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren have had some big games, but if Gilgeous-Alexander gets slowed down, the Thunder tend to get themselves into trouble.
Oklahoma City Thunder - Indiana Pacers Key Points
- The Pacers are 7-2 SU at home in the playoffs
- The Pacers are 6-3 ATS at home in the playoffs
- The Thunder are 4-4 SU on the road in the playoffs
- The Pacers’ bench is outscoring the Thunder’s bench 122 to 94
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Our Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Prediction
As good as the Thunder have been all season and throughout the playoffs, their one weakness is consistently winning on the road. As previously mentioned, the Thunder are an underwhelming 4-4 in eight road postseason games.
Even when the Thunder do win on the road, it tends not to be by much, as their average margin of victory in four road playoff wins is 3.8 points per game.
After the Game 2 blowout by Oklahoma City, they looked to be ready to take control of this series, but the Pacers responded perfectly in Game 3. Despite their road woes, the Thunder looked likely to respond with a win in Game 4; however, given the Pacers are still playing at home, our Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction is: Indiana Pacers +6.Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers - Other Interesting Picks
Bennedict Mathurin to Score 10+ Points
Bennedict Mathurin has been a sneaky good role player for the Pacers throughout the postseason, and he finally made a huge mark in Game 3, as he led all scorers with 27 points off the bench.
Mathurin is now averaging 15.3 points per game in the series, and overall, he is averaging 10.3 points per game in the playoffs. If the Pacers are going to repeat what they did in Game 3 and win Game 4, Mathurin will once again need to be a factor. For that reason, we will target Mathurin to score at least 10 points for the third straight game this series.
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