ATP - ATP Shanghai Masters
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by Lou Aguila in ATP Shanghai Masters Picks
Novak Djokovic of Serbia comes out of the gates as an overwhelming favorite at -800 to win Saturday’s semifinal clash with Valentin Vacherot of Poland (+520), who has taken the Shanghai Masters by storm with a spree of unbelievable upsets.
Current Form:
Djokovic secured his spot in the semifinal in Shanghai after fending off Zizou Bergs of Belgium 6-3, 7-5 on Wednesday. After surviving back-to-back three-set matches against Jaume Munar and Yannick Hanfmann, the former world’s No.1 won the first set in 9 games and converted two breakpoints down the stretch in the second to put Bergs away for good. Djokovic, a four-time Shanghai Masters champion, is 9-1 in his last 10 matches.
Vacherot is officially the breakout star of this year’s Shanghai Masters after claiming massive wins over a handful of high-caliber opponents. A relatively unknown before this tournament, Vacherot racked up 5 consecutive ATP top-100 wins in a row, including a 2-6, 7-6, 6-4 stunner over former world’s No.10 Holger Rune on Thursday. Vacherot has already played 7 matches in this tourney, including two from the qualifiers, and yet he has managed to maintain a 91% service hold percentage.
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Novak Djokovic vs Valentin Vacherot Form
Novak Djokovic and Valentin Vacherot Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Oct 9, 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Oct 7, 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Oct 5, 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Oct 3, 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Sep 5, 2025 - ATP US Open
Sep 2, 2025 - ATP US Open
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Oct 9, 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Oct 7, 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Oct 5, 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Oct 3, 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Oct 1, 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Sep 30, 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Novak Djokovic - Valentin Vacherot Key Points
- Valentin Vacherot defeated Holger Rune 2-6, 7-6, 6-4 in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Shaghai Masters.
- Valentin Vacherot boasts a 72 percent win rate on the hard court in 2025.
- Novak Djokovic defeated Zizou Bergs 6-3, 7-5 in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Shanghai Masters.
- Novak Djokovic is 21-6 on the hard court in 2025.
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Our Novak Djokovic vs Valentin Vacherot Prediction
With Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Alexander Zverev in the semifinals, Djokovic has established himself as the top betting favorite to win his fifth Shanghai Masters title. Djokovic is 8-1 against players outside the ATP top-100 this year and 2-4 in the semifinals, though all four losses coming at the Grand Slam stage. Meanwhile, Vacherot has yet to test his mettle against a top-10 player this season and has never faced a top-5 player throughout his career. He would have to raise his game to another level yet again to match the caliber that the 38-year-old Djokovic brings to the table.
Fearless Forecast: Novak Djokovic is a no-brainer pick to win here, but I find Vacherot an intriguing pick at -118 to cover +4.5 Games on FanDuel. The player from Monaco is serving exceptionally well in this tournament, and I believe this could be the key to overcoming the talent and experience gap between him and the 24-time Grand Slam champion.
Our betting prediction for Novak Djokovic vs. Valentin Vacherot: Valentin Vacherot +4.5 Games
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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