Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Prediction & Picks - Premier League

England - Premier League

Nottingham Forest
8/22/26 10:00
Leeds

Prediction:

 

Ethan Ampadu to Receive a Card

+255
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 by Bradley Gibbs | in Premier League Picks

The new EPL season begins for both Nottingham Forest and Leeds on Saturday, when the teams will clash at City Ground. The hosts begin a new era under the stewardship of Oliver Glasner, and if the French manager is anywhere near as effective as he was at Crystal Palace, then it could be a fruitful era for the Tricky Trees. The visitors continue under the guidance of Daniel Farke, who masterminded survival last season. 

From a betting angle, it's worth siding with Leeds skipper Ethan Ampadu to get himself in trouble with the referee by betting on 'Ethan Ampadu to Receive a Card' at odds of +255, which look a little lenient. It won't be long at all until the tough-tackling midfielder starts going into games priced closer to +175, so it's worth getting involved early doors. The Welshman picked up no fewer than ten EPL cards last season, being one of the most prolific foulers in the division. 

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Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Form

Nottingham Forest and Leeds Latest Matches

Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest Latest matches
W L L L W W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.17 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Aug 16, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Nottingham Forest
2 :  0
Brest

Aug 12, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Nottingham Forest
2 :  1
Bayer Leverkusen

Aug 8, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Barcelona
1 :  0
Nottingham Forest

Aug 8, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Udinese
1 :  0
Nottingham Forest

Jul 31, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Sporting Lisbon
4 :  1
Nottingham Forest

Jul 31, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Portimonense
1 :  2
Nottingham Forest
D D W D W W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.33 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
0.67 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

Aug 16, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Nottingham Forest
2 :  0
Brest

Aug 12, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Nottingham Forest
2 :  1
Bayer Leverkusen

Jul 26, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Nottingham Forest
1 :  1
Vitoria SC Guimaraes

Jul 22, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Nottingham Forest
3 :  0
Blackburn

May 24, 2026 - Premier League

Nottingham Forest
1 :  1
Bournemouth

May 10, 2026 - Premier League

Nottingham Forest
1 :  1
Newcastle
L W W L L L
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.17 Goals scored
1.67 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Aug 8, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Barcelona
1 :  0
Nottingham Forest

Aug 8, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Udinese
1 :  0
Nottingham Forest

Jul 31, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Sporting Lisbon
4 :  1
Nottingham Forest

Jul 31, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Portimonense
1 :  2
Nottingham Forest

Jul 18, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Notts County
0 :  2
Nottingham Forest

May 17, 2026 - Premier League

Manchester United
3 :  2
Nottingham Forest
Leeds
Leeds Latest matches
L W W W D W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
50% BTTS
2.33 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Aug 15, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Leeds
4 :  0
Augsburg

Aug 12, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Manchester United
1 :  1
Leeds

Aug 8, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Leeds
2 :  0
Leipzig

Aug 2, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Liverpool
2 :  4
Leeds

Jul 30, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Leeds
1 :  0
Sunderland

Jul 25, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Leeds
2 :  3
Wrexham
W W L W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
33% BTTS
2.17 Goals scored
0.67 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Aug 15, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Leeds
4 :  0
Augsburg

Aug 8, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Leeds
2 :  0
Leipzig

Jul 30, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Leeds
1 :  0
Sunderland

Jul 25, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Leeds
2 :  3
Wrexham

May 17, 2026 - Premier League

Leeds
1 :  0
Brighton

May 1, 2026 - Premier League

Leeds
3 :  1
Burnley
D L D L W D
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.33 Goals scored
1.67 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Aug 12, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Manchester United
1 :  1
Leeds

Aug 2, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Liverpool
2 :  4
Leeds

May 24, 2026 - Premier League

West Ham
3 :  0
Leeds

May 11, 2026 - Premier League

Tottenham
1 :  1
Leeds

Apr 26, 2026 - FA Cup

Chelsea
1 :  0
Leeds

Apr 22, 2026 - Premier League

Bournemouth
2 :  2
Leeds

Nottingham Forest against Leeds : Head to Head (H2H)

Nottingham Forest

50 %

Draw

17 %

Leeds

33 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

2.67
Total goals
66.67%
BTTS
1.5
Goals scored
1.17
Goals conceded
50%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5

Feb 6, 2026 - Premier League

Leeds
3 :  1
Nottingham Forest

Nov 9, 2025 - Premier League

Nottingham Forest
3 :  1
Leeds

Apr 4, 2023 - Premier League

Leeds
2 :  1
Nottingham Forest

Feb 5, 2023 - Premier League

Nottingham Forest
1 :  0
Leeds

Feb 8, 2020 - Championship

Nottingham Forest
2 :  0
Leeds

Aug 10, 2019 - Championship

Leeds
1 :  1
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Picks

Missing players

Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
Defender

N. Savona

Leeds
Leeds
Goalkeeper

L. Perri

Defender

G. Gudmundsson

Midfielder

I. Gruev

Forward

Mateo Joseph

Nottingham Forest - Leeds Key Points

  1. Last season, only six EPL players made more fouls than Ethan Ampadu.
  2. Only seven players picked up more yellows than Ethan Ampadu during the previous EPL campaign.
  3. In the EPL last term, Ethan Ampadu picked up ten yellow cards.
  4. Last season, Ethan Ampadu averaged 0.29 cards per 90 minutes in the EPL.
Up to $1000 to bet on Nottingham Forest - Leeds! 

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Our Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Prediction

Given how regularly he went into the book last season, coupled with just how prolific he was in terms of giving away fouls, Ethan Ampadu comes into this league opener looking too leniently priced from a card point of view. He averaged a booking 29% of the time last term, which helps us to conclude that odds of +255 (=28.2% implied probability) are a little too juicy to ignore. 

His style of play is all about getting stuck in and playing hard, so we know it won't be long before the midfield man gets a booking, and given the odds, it's worth betting that he does so in this first game. 

Our Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Pick: Ethan Ampadu to Receive a Card. 

Prediction:

 

Ethan Ampadu to Receive a Card

+255
$1000 offered for betting!

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