San Diego St. vs North Carolina Prediction & Picks - NCAA Basketball

USA - NCAA Basketball

San Diego St.
3/18/25 21:10
North Carolina

Prediction:

 

North Carolina -3.5

-112
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 by Matt Lowrimore | in Basketball Picks

The second First Four game on Tuesday will feature the 11th-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels and the 11th-seeded San Diego State Aztecs. Let's take a look at the match statistics and predictions to help determine the outcome of this First Four matchup between the Tar Heels and Aztecs in the South Region.

North Carolina was one of the surprise teams to make the NCAA tournament field and enter this game with a record of 22-13. The Tar Heels made it to the semifinals of the ACC tournament, beating Notre Dame in the second round and Wake Forest in the quarterfinals before losing to Duke in the semifinals. North Carolina had Duke on the ropes before a lane violation in the final seconds sealed their fate.

On the other side is San Diego State, which enters this game with a record of 21-9. The Aztecs lost in the Mountain West quarterfinals to Boise State, falling 62-52 but still did enough to warrant a bid into the NCAA tournament. 

San Diego St. vs North Carolina Form

San Diego St. and North Carolina Latest Matches

San Diego St.
San Diego St. Latest matches
L
Victories

0/1 (0%)

Defeats

1/1 (100%)

Mar 28, 2024 - NCAA Basketball

UCONN
82 :  52
San Diego St.
L
Victories

0/1 (0%)

Defeats

1/1 (100%)

Mar 28, 2024 - NCAA Basketball

UCONN
82 :  52
San Diego St.
North Carolina
North Carolina Latest matches
W L
Victories

1/2 (50%)

Defeats

1/2 (50%)

Mar 28, 2024 - NCAA Basketball

North Carolina
87 :  89
Alabama

Mar 23, 2024 - NCAA Basketball

North Carolina
85 :  69
Michigan St.
W L
Victories

1/2 (50%)

Defeats

1/2 (50%)

Mar 28, 2024 - NCAA Basketball

North Carolina
87 :  89
Alabama

Mar 23, 2024 - NCAA Basketball

North Carolina
85 :  69
Michigan St.

San Diego St. - North Carolina Key Points

  1. UNC is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games
  2. UNC is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games
  3. SDSU is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
  4. SDSU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 March games

Our San Diego St. vs North Carolina Prediction

For North Carolina, it feels like they are getting a mulligan after how they were eliminated by Duke in the ACC semifinals. The top experts did not have the Tar Heels in the field so this is the chance for North Carolina to prove they belong in the tournament.

The Tar Heels have the advantage in this game offensively, averaging 75.9 points per game compared to San Diego State, which averages 72 points per game. However, the Aztecs have the better defense, allowing 62.2 points per game, compared to the Tar Heels, who allow 74.9 points per game.

North Carolina has been much better recently as well, pushing Duke to the final seconds, while San Diego State limped to the finish with a lackluster performance against Boise State. The Tar Heels still have RJ Davis and a host of other talented players that can take over a game at any time. Because of this and because North Carolina is in better form, our North Carolina Tar Heels vs San Diego State Aztecs prediction is North Carolina -3.5.

Prediction:

 

North Carolina -3.5

-112
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San Diego St. vs North Carolina Picks