Newcastle vs Leeds Prediction & Picks - Premier League

England - Premier League

Newcastle
1/7/26 15:15
Leeds

Prediction:

 

Under 2.5 Goals

+100
$150 offered for betting!

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 by Bradley Gibbs | in Premier League Picks

One of Wednesday's later EPL games sees Newcastle and Leeds clash at St. James' Park, where the hosts will be looking for a third win in quick succession. Eddie Howe's men had looked a little out of shape when losing to Man United the day after Christmas, but they've since bounced back, beating Burnley by three goals to one on the road, a win that nicely set them up for victory over Crystal Palace. After two decent efforts, we should see a confident home team take to the field. 

The visitors will also be feeling confident in the North East. Daniel Farke's men have really turned things around in the last month or so, finally finding the defensive solidity that is needed to put up a serious fight for EPL survival. The men from Elland Road have lost none of their last seven league games, which has left them sitting eight points clear of the bottom three. Can they make it eight games without a loss? 

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Newcastle vs Leeds Form

Table

Teams Pts P W D L GD
12 Newcastle
49 38 14 7 17 -2
14 Leeds
47 38 11 14 13 -7

Newcastle and Leeds Latest Matches

Newcastle
Newcastle Latest matches
L W D L W W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Jan 4, 2026 - Premier League

Newcastle
2 :  0
Crystal Palace

Dec 30, 2025 - Premier League

Burnley
1 :  3
Newcastle

Dec 26, 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
1 :  0
Newcastle

Dec 20, 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle
2 :  2
Chelsea

Dec 17, 2025 - Carabao Cup

Newcastle
2 :  1
Fulham

Dec 14, 2025 - Premier League

Sunderland
1 :  0
Newcastle
W D W W D W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals
83% BTTS
2 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Jan 4, 2026 - Premier League

Newcastle
2 :  0
Crystal Palace

Dec 20, 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle
2 :  2
Chelsea

Dec 17, 2025 - Carabao Cup

Newcastle
2 :  1
Fulham

Dec 6, 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle
2 :  1
Burnley

Dec 2, 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle
2 :  2
Tottenham

Nov 22, 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle
2 :  1
Manchester City
L W D L L W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

Dec 30, 2025 - Premier League

Burnley
1 :  3
Newcastle

Dec 26, 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
1 :  0
Newcastle

Dec 14, 2025 - Premier League

Sunderland
1 :  0
Newcastle

Dec 10, 2025 - Champions League

Bayer Leverkusen
2 :  2
Newcastle

Nov 29, 2025 - Premier League

Everton
1 :  4
Newcastle

Nov 25, 2025 - Champions League

Marseille
2 :  1
Newcastle
Leeds
Leeds Latest matches
D D W D D D
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
83% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

Jan 4, 2026 - Premier League

Leeds
1 :  1
Manchester United

Jan 1, 2026 - Premier League

Liverpool
0 :  0
Leeds

Dec 28, 2025 - Premier League

Sunderland
1 :  1
Leeds

Dec 20, 2025 - Premier League

Leeds
4 :  1
Crystal Palace

Dec 14, 2025 - Premier League

Brentford
1 :  1
Leeds

Dec 6, 2025 - Premier League

Leeds
3 :  3
Liverpool
W L W D W D
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.83 Total goals
100% BTTS
2.33 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Jan 4, 2026 - Premier League

Leeds
1 :  1
Manchester United

Dec 20, 2025 - Premier League

Leeds
4 :  1
Crystal Palace

Dec 6, 2025 - Premier League

Leeds
3 :  3
Liverpool

Dec 3, 2025 - Premier League

Leeds
3 :  1
Chelsea

Nov 23, 2025 - Premier League

Leeds
1 :  2
Aston Villa

Oct 24, 2025 - Premier League

Leeds
2 :  1
West Ham
L L L D D D
Victories

0/6 (0%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals
67% BTTS
0.83 Goals scored
1.83 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Jan 1, 2026 - Premier League

Liverpool
0 :  0
Leeds

Dec 28, 2025 - Premier League

Sunderland
1 :  1
Leeds

Dec 14, 2025 - Premier League

Brentford
1 :  1
Leeds

Nov 29, 2025 - Premier League

Manchester City
3 :  2
Leeds

Nov 9, 2025 - Premier League

Nottingham Forest
3 :  1
Leeds

Nov 1, 2025 - Premier League

Brighton
3 :  0
Leeds

Newcastle against Leeds : Head to Head (H2H)

Newcastle

17 %

Draw

67 %

Leeds

17 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

1.67
Total goals
50%
BTTS
0.83
Goals scored
0.83
Goals conceded
33.33%
Over 2.5
66.67%
Under 2.5

Aug 30, 2025 - Premier League

Leeds
0 :  0
Newcastle

May 13, 2023 - Premier League

Leeds
2 :  2
Newcastle

Dec 31, 2022 - Premier League

Newcastle
0 :  0
Leeds

Jan 22, 2022 - Premier League

Leeds
0 :  1
Newcastle

Sep 17, 2021 - Premier League

Newcastle
1 :  1
Leeds

Jan 26, 2021 - Premier League

Newcastle
1 :  2
Leeds
Newcastle vs Leeds Picks

Newcastle against Leeds Lineups: Starting 11

Newcastle

Formation : 4 - 3 - 3

1
N. Pope
67
L. Miley
12
M. Thiaw
5
F. Schar
3
L. Hall
39
B. Guimaraes
8
S. Tonali
7
Joelinton
11
H. Barnes
27
N. Woltemade
10
A. Gordon
9
D. Calvert-Lewin
11
B. Aaronson
3
G. Gudmundsson
18
A. Stach
4
E. Ampadu
44
I. Gruev
24
J. Justin
5
P. Struijk
15
J. Bijol
6
J. Rodon
1
L. Perri

Formation : 3 - 5 - 1 - 1

Leeds

Substitutes

Newcastle
Newcastle
Goalkeeper

A. Ramsdale

Defender

K. Trippier

S. Botman

M. Thiaw 46'

T. Livramento

S. Tonali 46'

A. Murphy

Midfielder

J. Willock

J. Murphy

A. Gordon 81'

J. Ramsey

F. Schar 75'

Forward

Y. Wissa

N. Woltemade 76'

Leeds
Leeds
Goalkeeper

K. Darlow

Defender

S. Bornauw

J. Rodon 90'

S. Byram

Midfielder

J. Harrison

A. Tanaka

I. Gruev 90'

Forward

N. Okafor

A. Stach 80'

J. Piroe

L. Nmecha

D. Calvert-Lewin 86'

G. Wilfried

B. Aaronson 90'

Missing players

Newcastle
Newcastle
Defender

D. Burn

Forward

A. Elanga

W. Osula

Leeds
Leeds
Defender

J. Bogle

Forward

D. James

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Newcastle
CD Huachipato Leeds
Top Goalscorer
Brazil B. Guimaraes (9 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
England D. Calvert-Lewin (14 Goals)
Best assists
Brazil B. Guimaraes (5 Assists)
Best assists
USA B. Aaronson (5 Assists)

Newcastle - Leeds Key Points

  1. No goals were scored as Leeds recently dug deep and frustrated at Anfield.
  2. The visitors have only conceded two goals in their last three away games.
  3. Less than three goals have been scored in four of Leeds' last five games overall.
  4. Less than three goals have been scored in each of Leeds' last three away games.
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Our Newcastle vs Leeds Prediction

For my money, the chances of a relatively low-scoring game unfolding at St. James' Park on Wednesday are a little greater than the early odds suggest. After all, we know that the Whites have tightened up, and there's no way that they'll will go to Newcastle and open up, especially not early on. We recently saw Farke's men grind out a 0-0 at Anfield, and let's face it, they'll be looking for something similar here. 

No more than two goals have been scored in any of Leeds' last three away games, while the hosts were content to grind it out in fairly low-key fashion against Palace last time out, so do not be surprised if this one turns out to be far from high-scoring. I certainly won't be. Crucially, odds of +100 appear to offer a smidgen of value, and I'll be taking that value. 

Our Newcastle vs Leeds Pick: Under 2.5 Goals. 

Prediction:

 

Under 2.5 Goals

+100
$150 offered for betting!

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.