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by Erik Gibbs | in MLB Picks
The Miami Marlins and New York Yankees find themselves heading in sharply different directions as they wrap up their three-game series today. The Marlins, once below .500, have surged back into postseason contention, while the Yankees, despite a strong overall record, appear to be faltering at a critical point in the season.
Miami entered this series at 50-55 but has now climbed to 54-55 after notching consecutive wins over the Yankees. Their game one victory was an explosive 13-12 slugfest, while game two was a polar opposite—a tight, low-scoring 2-0 win where the Marlins took an early lead and never looked back. The series sweep is now within reach, and momentum is firmly on their side.
Miami’s recent success isn’t just limited to this series; they’ve also won two out of three games against both the Cardinals and Brewers, totaling four straight wins and placing themselves just a couple of games out of a National League Wild Card berth. At 26-29 at home, they’ll look to improve on that mark with another key win.
On the other side, the Yankees are struggling to find consistency. Sitting at 60-51, New York has now lost back-to-back games in Miami and has fallen into third place in the American League East. Their offense, which exploded for 12 runs in game one, was completely stifled in game two.
The absence of star slugger Aaron Judge, who remains out with an elbow injury, has become glaringly obvious, and the Yankees’ lineup looked lifeless against Miami’s pitching staff on Saturday. Before this series, New York had taken three of four from the Rays but stumbled against the Phillies, losing two of three.
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New York Yankees vs Miami Marlins Form
Table
Teams | % | P | W | L |
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0.536 | 112 | 60 | 52 |
16
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0.5 | 110 | 55 | 55 |
New York Yankees and Miami Marlins Latest Matches

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New York Yankees against Miami Marlins : Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
67 %
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New York Yankees - Miami Marlins Key Points
- The Yankees are 3-12 in their 15 games as road favorites
- The Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 games when home underdogs
- The Marlins are 11-0 covering the run line in their 11 day games vs. AL East teams with a winning record
- The Yankees are 0-4 covering the run line in their last 4 games at LoanDepot Park
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Our New York Yankees vs Miami Marlins Prediction
The pitching matchup in the series finale heavily favors the surging Marlins. Miami hands the ball to Edward Cabrera, who comes into the game with a strong 3.35 ERA and a knack for keeping hitters off balance. Cabrera has been instrumental in the team’s recent 12-4 straight-up run and will look to extend Miami’s hot streak.
Meanwhile, the Yankees counter with Luis Gil, who is making his 2025 season debut. Gil struggled in rehab assignments, posting a 5.65 ERA across 14.1 innings, and enters a high-pressure situation with limited margin for error.
Both teams sport identical 26-29 records in road/home splits, which levels the playing field somewhat, but momentum clearly favors Miami. With the Yankees having lost six of their last ten and lacking offensive firepower, the Marlins have a golden opportunity to capitalize. Miami’s bullpen has held up well, and if Cabrera can give them five or six solid innings, they should be able to manage the rest of the game comfortably.
The Yankees' lack of offense, coupled with the pressure on Gil to perform in his first major league start of the year, makes this an uphill battle for New York. Miami's recent clutch performances and solid starting pitching have them poised to secure the sweep. Barring a major turnaround from the Yankees' bats, this game is shaping up to be another statement win for a Marlins team clawing its way back into the postseason conversation. Our prediction for Miami Marlins vs. NY Yankees: Marlins to win.
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