Portland Fire vs New York Liberty Prediction & Picks - WNBA
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by Erik Gibbs | in WNBA Picks
The Portland Fire and New York Liberty meet tonight at Moda Center for a high-stakes rematch that could either cement an expansion underdog's legendary start or see a championship contender re-establish the natural order of the league. Just two nights ago, the basketball world was stunned when Portland secured the first victory of its inaugural 2026 season in dramatic fashion, knocking off the powerhouse Liberty 98-96. That result left the Fire with a 1-1 record following a lopsided opening-day loss to Chicago, proving that this new iteration of the franchise has the grit to compete with the elite. Meanwhile, the Liberty now sit at 2-1 and find themselves in the unusual position of having to avenge a loss to an upstart expansion squad to avoid a demoralizing series sweep on the road.
New York's early-season form has been a tale of two identities: a dominant offensive force that put up 100 points in their second game and a defensive unit that struggled to contain Portland's perimeter shooting on Tuesday. The Fire utilized a high-tempo transition game to keep the Liberty off-balance, hitting half of their field goals and an impressive 15 three-pointers. Portland's bench was the true difference-maker in that contest, outscoring New York's reserves 32-11. For the Liberty, the focus tonight must be on tightened rotations and perimeter defense, as they cannot afford to let the Fire gain early momentum in front of what is expected to be a raucous, sell-out crowd in the Fire Pit.
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Portland Fire vs New York Liberty Form
Table
| Teams | % | P | W | L | Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7
|
0.556 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 2 |
|
9
|
0.407 | 27 | 11 | 16 |
Portland Fire and New York Liberty Latest Matches
1/2 (50%)
1/2 (50%)
May 12, 2026 - WNBA
May 9, 2026 - WNBA
1/2 (50%)
1/2 (50%)
May 12, 2026 - WNBA
May 9, 2026 - WNBA
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
May 12, 2026 - WNBA
May 10, 2026 - WNBA
May 8, 2026 - WNBA
Sep 19, 2025 - WNBA
Sep 17, 2025 - WNBA
Sep 14, 2025 - WNBA
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
May 8, 2026 - WNBA
Sep 17, 2025 - WNBA
Sep 9, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 28, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 25, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 21, 2025 - WNBA
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
May 12, 2026 - WNBA
May 10, 2026 - WNBA
Sep 19, 2025 - WNBA
Sep 14, 2025 - WNBA
Sep 11, 2025 - WNBA
Sep 5, 2025 - WNBA
Portland Fire against New York Liberty : Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
May 12, 2026 - WNBA
Players list
K. Smalls
N. Puoch
B. Carleton
E. Engstler
M. Johannes
P. Astier
B. Stewart
Substitutes
H. Jones
S. Barker
S. Sutton
S. Williams
F. Buhner
J. Vanloo
R. Gardner
A. Griffin
R. Allen
Portland Fire - New York Liberty Key Points
- The Over is 2-0 in the Fire's first 2 home games of the season
- The Over is 2-0 in the Liberty's first 2 away games of the season
- The Fire are 1-1 ATS in their first 2 home games of the season
- The Liberty are 0-2 ATS in their first 2 away games of the season
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Our Portland Fire vs New York Liberty Prediction
Breanna Stewart has been every bit the MVP candidate, leading the way for the Liberty with a massive double-double average of 23.3 points and 9.7 rebounds over the first three games. She is flanked by Jonquel Jones, who has been a tower of strength in the paint, contributing 13.3 points and 6.7 rebounds. However, the Liberty are hampered by significant absences; superstar guard Sabrina Ionescu remains sidelined with a foot injury, and the versatile Satou Sabally is also out as she recovers from a cyst. This has placed immense pressure on Pauline Astier, who has stepped up admirably with 15.7 points per game, and Marine Johannès, whose scoring outbursts have kept New York competitive.
On the Portland side, the spotlight remains on Bridget Carleton and Sarah Ashlee Barker. Carleton was spectacular in the previous meeting, leading all scorers with 26 points and showing why she was the centerpiece of the team's roster construction. Barker's buzzer-beating heroics on Tuesday have already made her a local icon, but her overall playmaking has been the engine of the Fire's offense. Portland enters this game relatively healthy compared to their opponents, though they are still without Nika Mühl and Sug Sutton. Despite the Fire's recent upset, New York holds the upper hand tonight as they are unlikely to be caught off-guard twice and possess the veteran experience to adjust their defensive schemes. Our prediction for Portland Fire vs. New York Liberty: Under 177.5 points.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
