Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Prediction & Picks - WNBA

USA - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
9/19/25 21:00
New York Liberty

Prediction:

 

The New York Liberty will win

+114
$200 offered for betting!

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 by Lou Aguila | in WNBA Picks

After splitting the first two games of their first-round series, the New York Liberty and the Phoenix Mercury are headed for a do-or-die Game 3 on Friday at PHX Arena.

The Liberty, the defending WNBA Champions, are +114 underdogs to the Mercury despite getting a 60 percent win probability from ESPN Match Predictor.

Current Form:

The Liberty could not finish off the Mercury in Game 2 as they shot a cold 30.2 percent from the field in a 60-86 loss. Emma Messerman was the only Liberty who scored in double figures (11 points on 4 for 9 shooting) in this match, as New York’s 1-2 punch of Sabrina Ionescu and Brianna Stewart only combined for 15 points on 5-for-19 shooting.

With their backs against the wall, the Mercury came through with one of their most dominant performances all season long to obliterate the Liberty by 26 points. Five players scored in double figures for the Mercury, who shot 47 percent from the floor. Satou Sabally recorded 15 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists while Allysa Thomas tallied 15 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists to spearhead Phoenix’s fightback.

Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Form

Phoenix Mercury and New York Liberty Latest Matches

Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix Mercury Latest matches
W L L L L W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Sep 17, 2025 - WNBA

New York Liberty
60 :  86
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 14, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
69 :  76
New York Liberty

Sep 11, 2025 - WNBA

Dallas Wings
97 :  76
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 9, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
83 :  88
L.a. Sparks

Sep 6, 2025 - WNBA

Connecticut Sun
87 :  84
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 4, 2025 - WNBA

Washington Mystics
69 :  75
Phoenix Mercury
W W W W L L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Sep 14, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
69 :  76
New York Liberty

Sep 9, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
83 :  88
L.a. Sparks

Sep 2, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
85 :  79
Indiana Fever

Aug 30, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
80 :  63
New York Liberty

Aug 28, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
83 :  79
Chicago Sky

Aug 22, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
81 :  72
Golden State Valkyries
L W W L L W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Sep 17, 2025 - WNBA

New York Liberty
60 :  86
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 11, 2025 - WNBA

Dallas Wings
97 :  76
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 6, 2025 - WNBA

Connecticut Sun
87 :  84
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 4, 2025 - WNBA

Washington Mystics
69 :  75
Phoenix Mercury

Aug 26, 2025 - WNBA

L.a. Sparks
84 :  92
Phoenix Mercury

Aug 21, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
83 :  61
Phoenix Mercury
New York Liberty
New York Liberty Latest matches
L W W W W L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Sep 17, 2025 - WNBA

New York Liberty
60 :  86
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 14, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
69 :  76
New York Liberty

Sep 11, 2025 - WNBA

Chicago Sky
86 :  91
New York Liberty

Sep 9, 2025 - WNBA

New York Liberty
75 :  66
Washington Mystics

Sep 5, 2025 - WNBA

Seattle Storm
76 :  84
New York Liberty

Sep 2, 2025 - WNBA

Golden State Valkyries
66 :  58
New York Liberty
W L W W W L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Sep 17, 2025 - WNBA

New York Liberty
60 :  86
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 9, 2025 - WNBA

New York Liberty
75 :  66
Washington Mystics

Aug 28, 2025 - WNBA

New York Liberty
89 :  63
Washington Mystics

Aug 25, 2025 - WNBA

New York Liberty
81 :  79
Connecticut Sun

Aug 21, 2025 - WNBA

New York Liberty
85 :  91
Chicago Sky

Aug 19, 2025 - WNBA

New York Liberty
85 :  75
Minnesota Lynx
L L L W W W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Sep 14, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
69 :  76
New York Liberty

Sep 11, 2025 - WNBA

Chicago Sky
86 :  91
New York Liberty

Sep 5, 2025 - WNBA

Seattle Storm
76 :  84
New York Liberty

Sep 2, 2025 - WNBA

Golden State Valkyries
66 :  58
New York Liberty

Aug 30, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
80 :  63
New York Liberty

Aug 23, 2025 - WNBA

Atlanta Dream
78 :  62
New York Liberty

Phoenix Mercury against New York Liberty : Head to Head (H2H)

Phoenix Mercury

67 %

New York Liberty

33 %

Sep 17, 2025 - WNBA

New York Liberty
60 :  86
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 14, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
69 :  76
New York Liberty

Aug 30, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
80 :  63
New York Liberty

Jul 25, 2025 - WNBA

New York Liberty
89 :  76
Phoenix Mercury

Jun 27, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
106 :  91
New York Liberty

Jun 19, 2025 - WNBA

New York Liberty
81 :  89
Phoenix Mercury

Players list

Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix Mercury
N. Mack

M. Akoa-Makani

K. Copper

S. Sabally

A. Thomas

New York Liberty
New York Liberty
J. Jones

N. Cloud

S. Ionescu

L. Fiebich

B. Stewart

Substitutes

Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix Mercury
K. Brown

K. Williams

D. Bonner

L. Held

K. Laksa

S. Whitcomb

K. Westbeld

New York Liberty
New York Liberty
N. Sabally K. Burke

R. Gardner

M. Johannes

E. Meesseman

S. Talbot

I. Harrison

Phoenix Mercury - New York Liberty Key Points

  1. The New York Liberty are 10-12 on the road.
  2. The New York Liberty are 4-1 in their last five games.
  3. The Phoenix Mercury are 15-7 at home.
  4. The Phoenix Mercury are 1-4 in their last five games.

Our Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Prediction

It seems bookmakers are no longer bullish about New York’s chance of defending the title this year. Following a lopsided loss in Game 2, the Liberty are now listed on DraftKings as +114 underdogs to the Mercury, who boast a 15-7 record at PHX Arena.

Phoenix really made a huge statement in the last game by clamping down on New York’s prolific offense, forcing them to shoot 30 percent from the floor. But don’t count out New York just yet, and never underestimate the heart of a champion, because this team has battle-tested veterans who can elevate their game in a high-stakes match. New York will make the necessary adjustments to fix everything that went wrong in Game 2. Expect Stewart and Ionescu to step up and lead the charge for the Liberty, who are 4-1 in their last five matches. This won’t be an easy match for either team, but the New York Liberty’s familiarity with this situation makes them a worthy underdog pick in this win-or-go-home scenario.

Our betting prediction for the New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury: the New York Liberty will win.

Prediction:

 

The New York Liberty will win

+114
$200 offered for betting!

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Picks