New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks - WNBA

Prediction published on 9/19/25, 5:53 PM  by Lou Aguila | Modified on 9/20/25 at 2:20 AM in WNBA Picks

After splitting the first two games of their first-round series, the New York Liberty and the Phoenix Mercury are headed for a do-or-die Game 3 on Friday at PHX Arena.

The Liberty, the defending WNBA Champions, are +114 underdogs to the Mercury despite getting a 60 percent win probability from ESPN Match Predictor.

Current Form:

The Liberty could not finish off the Mercury in Game 2 as they shot a cold 30.2 percent from the field in a 60-86 loss. Emma Messerman was the only Liberty who scored in double figures (11 points on 4 for 9 shooting) in this match, as New York’s 1-2 punch of Sabrina Ionescu and Brianna Stewart only combined for 15 points on 5-for-19 shooting.

With their backs against the wall, the Mercury came through with one of their most dominant performances all season long to obliterate the Liberty by 26 points. Five players scored in double figures for the Mercury, who shot 47 percent from the floor. Satou Sabally recorded 15 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists while Allysa Thomas tallied 15 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists to spearhead Phoenix’s fightback.