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by Travis Pulver in NCAA Picks
The Liberty Flames will try to improve to 2-1 in conference play Tuesday, Oct. 14, when they face the New Mexico State Aggies at Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, VA. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. EST; fans can see the action on CBSSN.
Liberty got its first conference win of the season last week in Texas against UTEP, 19-8. Quarterback Ethan Vasko had a solid day, going 19-33 for 243 yards and adding 31 yards and the team’s only touchdown. After struggling to stop the run for much of the season, the defense held the Miners to just 56 yards on the ground. The pass defense recorded two picks on the day while holding UTEP to 111 passing yards. As for the Aggies, New Mexico State is coming off a win as well, 37-10 over the winless Sam Houston Bearkats. Quarterback Logan Fife had a good day, going 19-26 for 255 yards and a touchdown with another touchdown on the ground. They’ve had a hard time running the ball this season (No. 134, 50.6 yards per game). But they had 95 yards and two scores on the ground against Sam Houston.
Liberty beat the Aggies last year in a competitive game on the Aggies' home field, 30-24.
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New Mexico State Aggies vs Liberty Flames Form
Table
| Teams | % | P | W | D | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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5
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0.5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
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8
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0.5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
New Mexico State Aggies and Liberty Flames Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Oct 2, 2025 - NCAA
Sep 27, 2025 - NCAA
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1/5 (20%)
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2/6 (33%)
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4/6 (67%)
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2/5 (40%)
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3/5 (60%)
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Jan 4, 2025 - NCAA Division I, FBS, Playoffs
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2/6 (33%)
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4/6 (67%)
Oct 8, 2025 - NCAA
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New Mexico State Aggies - Liberty Flames Key Points
- Liberty leads the all-time series vs. New Mexico State, 6-2, including the last three.
- New Mexico State last beat Liberty at home on Oct. 6, 2018, 49-41.
- New Mexico State has yet to lose at home this season; Liberty is 1-3 on the road.
- Betting Public: 89% of moneyline tickets and 75% of the handle are on Liberty.
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Our New Mexico State Aggies vs Liberty Flames Prediction
New Mexico State has one of the worst running games in the country, but has a decent passing game (261.2 yards per game). However, Liberty has been tough against the pass this season (No. 12, 154.2 yards per game allowed). The Flames struggle to stop the run, but I’m not confident the Aggies will have any luck running the ball. I am not sure why Liberty is a 10.5-point favorite in this game; like New Mexico State, they are not a good team. I’d like to say they will not cover, but I can’t say with confidence the Aggies will keep it close. However, Liberty is averaging 17.3 points per game, while New Mexico is averaging 22.2 points per game. The best bet is pretty clear here.
Our Liberty vs. New Mexico State Pick: UNDER 48.5
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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