Club Necaxa vs Deportivo Toluca FC Prediction & Picks - Liga MX
Mexico - Liga MX
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by Erik Gibbs | in Liga MX Picks
Club Necaxa and Deportivo Toluca FC are set to battle in Aguascalientes in what promises to be one of the more tactical matchups of the weekend. Necaxa currently sits comfortably in the middle of the pack, holding the 9th spot in the standings. Their recent form has been a bit of a rollercoaster; they secured a vital 2-1 victory over FC Juárez last week, which provided some breathing room after a tough 2-0 loss to Club América.
Under manager Martín Varini, Necaxa has developed a reputation for being a disciplined unit that is difficult to break down, though they have struggled to keep clean sheets consistently. Their ability to counter-attack remains their primary weapon, often catching higher-ranked opponents off guard when they overextend.
Deportivo Toluca FC enters this match as one of the league's heavyweights, currently occupying 4th place. "Los Diablos Rojos" have been in impressive form over the last month, remaining unbeaten in their last six outings. Recent results include a convincing 3-1 win over Santos Laguna and a hard-fought 0-0 draw against a defensive-minded Puebla side.
Toluca's performance has been characterized by a high-octane offensive approach and a midfield that dominates the ball. They have shown great resilience on the road, often imposing their style of play regardless of the venue. For Toluca, this match represents an opportunity to cement their status as title contenders and potentially move into the top three of the Clausura.
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Club Necaxa vs Deportivo Toluca FC Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5
|
30 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | +12 |
|
15
|
18 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | -6 |
Club Necaxa and Deportivo Toluca FC Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Feb 14, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 6, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 31, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 17, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 13, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 10, 2026 - Liga MX
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Feb 6, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 17, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 13, 2026 - Liga MX
Oct 31, 2025 - Liga MX
Oct 21, 2025 - Liga MX
Oct 3, 2025 - Liga MX
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Feb 14, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 31, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 10, 2026 - Liga MX
Nov 7, 2025 - Liga MX
Oct 26, 2025 - Liga MX
Oct 17, 2025 - Liga MX
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Feb 13, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 7, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 30, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 17, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 14, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 10, 2026 - Liga MX
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Feb 13, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 7, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 14, 2026 - Liga MX
Dec 14, 2025 - Liga MX
Dec 6, 2025 - Liga MX
Nov 29, 2025 - Liga MX
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Jan 30, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 17, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 10, 2026 - Liga MX
Dec 11, 2025 - Liga MX
Dec 3, 2025 - Liga MX
Nov 26, 2025 - Liga MX
Club Necaxa against Deportivo Toluca FC : Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
20 %
80 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
Jul 12, 2025 - Liga MX
Mar 8, 2025 - Liga MX
Oct 27, 2024 - Liga MX
Feb 10, 2024 - Liga MX
Apr 30, 2023 - Liga MX
Club Necaxa against Deportivo Toluca FC Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 5 - 3 - 2
Substitutes
L. Jimenez
DefenderE. Martinez
E. Lara
R. Alonso
F. Mendez Lara
F. Rossano
K. Gutierrez
T. Badaloni
R. Cortez
J. Ruiz
H. Gonzalez
DefenderM. Isais
B. Mendez
A. Briseno
Luan
J. Diaz
S. Cordova
F. Arce
ForwardO. Virgen
F. Rossi
Most goals and assists
Club Necaxa
Deportivo Toluca FC
T. Badaloni
(5 Goals)
,
J. Ruiz
(5 Goals)
Paulinho
(6 Goals)
F. Rossano
(3 Assists)
, 
D. Leyva
(3 Assists)
J. Gallardo
(4 Assists)
Club Necaxa - Deportivo Toluca FC Key Points
- The Over is 2-3 in Necaxa's last 5 games
- The Over is 1-4 in Toluca's last 5 games
- Necaxa are 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games
- Toluca are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
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Our Club Necaxa vs Deportivo Toluca FC Prediction
The hosts are fortunate to have a relatively clean bill of health heading into this fixture. Conversely, Toluca is grappling with several key absences. Star playmaker Alexis Vega remains out with a knee injury, while Helinho and Nicolas Castro are both doubtful with muscle strains. Despite these injuries, the depth of the Toluca roster remains formidable. Paulinho has stepped up in the attacking third, providing the clinical finishing that Toluca needs in Vega's absence.
Deportivo Toluca FC holds the upper hand. Despite the injuries to key creative players, their overall tactical cohesion and recent unbeaten run make them the favorites. Necaxa will likely set up to frustrate and play for a draw or a narrow win on the break, but Toluca's quality in possession should eventually find the gaps. It will be a test of Necaxa's defensive resolve against the most fluid attack in the league. This game is scheduled for Saturday, February 21, 2026, at 8:00 pm Eastern Time. Our prediction for Club Necaxa vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Under 3.5 goals.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
