Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction & Picks - NHL

USA - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
4/29/26 19:00
Montreal Canadiens

Prediction:

 

Lightning to win in regulation

-105
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 by Taavi Pailk | in NHL Picks

The Tampa Bay Lightning look to grab the series lead for the first time against the Montreal Canadiens on Wednesday at Benchmark International Arena.

In an incredibly tight series, which has seen three of four games go past regulation, the Canadiens have held the lead twice. But the Lightning have shown impressive resilience in overcoming adversity. Their defense has tightened up, and Brandon Hagel looks unstoppable up front.

Tampa Bay found itself facing a 3-1 deficit on Monday night in Montreal before Hagel produced two third-period goals to help his team to a 3-2 victory. He has become the first player in Lightning history to score six goals through his first four games of a postseason campaign.

The Canadiens are also struggling to contain Jake Guentzel’s playmaking. He has recorded six assists in the series, including four on the power play. Montreal has held the edge in special teams, but Guentzel’s efforts have provided the Lightning with a spark on the man advantage.

Coming back twice in the series will build confidence within the Lightning camp, and there’s a chance the team will receive a further boost on Wednesday with the return of Victor Hedman. After missing a month of action due to illness and personal reasons, the Lightning captain logged a full practice on Tuesday.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Form

Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens Latest Matches

Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning Latest matches
W L L W L W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Apr 26, 2026 - NHL

Montreal Canadiens
2 :  3
Tampa Bay Lightning

Apr 24, 2026 - NHL

Montreal Canadiens
3 :  2
Tampa Bay Lightning

Apr 21, 2026 - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
3 :  2
Montreal Canadiens

Apr 19, 2026 - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
3 :  4
Montreal Canadiens

Apr 15, 2026 - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
2 :  4
New York Rangers

Apr 13, 2026 - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
4 :  3
Detroit Red Wings
W W W L L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Apr 21, 2026 - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
3 :  2
Montreal Canadiens

Apr 19, 2026 - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
3 :  4
Montreal Canadiens

Apr 15, 2026 - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
2 :  4
New York Rangers

Apr 13, 2026 - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
4 :  3
Detroit Red Wings

Apr 4, 2026 - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
3 :  1
Boston Bruins

Apr 2, 2026 - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
6 :  3
Pittsburgh Penguins
L L L W L W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Apr 26, 2026 - NHL

Montreal Canadiens
2 :  3
Tampa Bay Lightning

Apr 24, 2026 - NHL

Montreal Canadiens
3 :  2
Tampa Bay Lightning

Apr 11, 2026 - NHL

Boston Bruins
1 :  2
Tampa Bay Lightning

Apr 9, 2026 - NHL

Montreal Canadiens
2 :  1
Tampa Bay Lightning

Apr 7, 2026 - NHL

Ottawa Senators
6 :  2
Tampa Bay Lightning

Apr 6, 2026 - NHL

Buffalo Sabres
4 :  2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Montreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens Latest matches
W L W L W L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Apr 26, 2026 - NHL

Montreal Canadiens
2 :  3
Tampa Bay Lightning

Apr 24, 2026 - NHL

Montreal Canadiens
3 :  2
Tampa Bay Lightning

Apr 21, 2026 - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
3 :  2
Montreal Canadiens

Apr 19, 2026 - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
3 :  4
Montreal Canadiens

Apr 14, 2026 - NHL

Philadelphia Flyers
4 :  2
Montreal Canadiens

Apr 12, 2026 - NHL

New York Islanders
1 :  4
Montreal Canadiens
L W W L W L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Apr 26, 2026 - NHL

Montreal Canadiens
2 :  3
Tampa Bay Lightning

Apr 24, 2026 - NHL

Montreal Canadiens
3 :  2
Tampa Bay Lightning

Apr 11, 2026 - NHL

Montreal Canadiens
2 :  5
Columbus Blue Jackets

Apr 9, 2026 - NHL

Montreal Canadiens
2 :  1
Tampa Bay Lightning

Apr 7, 2026 - NHL

Montreal Canadiens
4 :  3
Florida Panthers

Apr 5, 2026 - NHL

Montreal Canadiens
0 :  3
New Jersey Devils
W W W L W L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Apr 21, 2026 - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
3 :  2
Montreal Canadiens

Apr 19, 2026 - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
3 :  4
Montreal Canadiens

Apr 14, 2026 - NHL

Philadelphia Flyers
4 :  2
Montreal Canadiens

Apr 12, 2026 - NHL

New York Islanders
1 :  4
Montreal Canadiens

Apr 4, 2026 - NHL

New Jersey Devils
3 :  4
Montreal Canadiens

Apr 2, 2026 - NHL

New York Rangers
2 :  3
Montreal Canadiens

Tampa Bay Lightning against Montreal Canadiens : Head to Head (H2H)

Tampa Bay Lightning

33 %

Montreal Canadiens

67 %

Apr 26, 2026 - NHL

Montreal Canadiens
2 :  3
Tampa Bay Lightning

Apr 24, 2026 - NHL

Montreal Canadiens
3 :  2
Tampa Bay Lightning

Apr 21, 2026 - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
3 :  2
Montreal Canadiens

Apr 19, 2026 - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
3 :  4
Montreal Canadiens

Apr 9, 2026 - NHL

Montreal Canadiens
2 :  1
Tampa Bay Lightning

Mar 31, 2026 - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
1 :  4
Montreal Canadiens
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Picks

Players list

Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning

J. Johansson

A. Vasilevskiy

M. Crozier

J. Moser

E. Lilleberg

R. McDonagh

E. Cernak

D. Raddysh

C. Perry

G. Goncalves

C. Geekie

D. James

Z. Girgensons

N. Kucherov

Y. Gourde

B. Hagel

J. Guentzel

A. Cirelli

B. Point

O. Bjorkstrand

Montreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens

J. Dobes

J. Fowler

K. Guhle

J. Struble

L. Hutson

A. Xhekaj

A. Carrier

M. Matheson

C. Caufield

A. Newhook

K. Dach

J. Evans

Z. Bolduc

J. Slafkovsky

A. Texier

N. Suzuki

P. Danault

J. Anderson

B. Gallagher

I. Demidov

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Tampa Bay Lightning
CD Huachipato Montreal Canadiens
Top Goalscorer
N. Kucherov (45 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
USA C. Caufield (57 Goals)
Best assists
N. Kucherov (91 Assists)
Best assists
Canada N. Suzuki (84 Assists)

Tampa Bay Lightning - Montreal Canadiens Key Points

  1. Tampa Bay looks dangerous in attack, with Brandon Hagel leading the postseason in goals and Jake Guentzel tied for the second-most assists.
  2. The Lightning have limited the Canadiens to six even-strength goals in the series.
  3. Montreal scored three of its five power-play goals in Game 1.
  4. After a strong start in the series, Jakub Dobes has seen his save percentage decline to .865 over the last two games.

Our Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction

While the series is tied at two and Montreal still has a good chance of advancing to the next round, Tampa Bay currently sits firmly in the driver’s seat. They will have gained valuable momentum from Monday’s comeback win and will look to produce a strong home performance in Game 5.

The Canadiens' power play has been highly influential in the matchup, but its impact has started to fade. Their star players are struggling at even strength -- Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky have combined for just one even-strength point.

Our prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens: Lightning to win in regulation.

Prediction:

 

Lightning to win in regulation

-105
$1000 offered for betting!

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.