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by Lou Aguila in MLB Picks
The New York Mets are -187 favorites to earn their second win over the Miami Marlins in Saturday’s Game 3 at Citi Field.
The Mets captured their fourth win in five games in the most emphatic way possible, blasting Miami 19-9 in the second game of their four-game weekend series. Miami scored more than 10 runs for the second time this week, raising their average runs per game to 10.5 runs on a .345 batting average over their last five games. Also in the stretch, New York has maintained a sturdy 3.20 ERA and 1.27 WHIP while surrendering an average of 0.6 home runs per game.
The Marlins are 2-3 in their last five games to drop to 63-72 in the season. Friday’s 9-19 loss to the Mets on Friday marked the third time in five games that Miami allowed an opponent to score more than 10 runs in a game. As a result, the Marlins’ ERA over the last five games has dramatically jumped to 9.61, with the starters giving up a 7.25 ERA and the bullpen yielding a 12.05 ERA.
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Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Form
Table
| Teams | % | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
11
|
0.537 | 136 | 73 | 63 |
|
21
|
0.471 | 136 | 64 | 72 |
Miami Marlins and New York Mets Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
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2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
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2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
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4/6 (67%)
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5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
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3/6 (50%)
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Miami Marlins against New York Mets : Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
67 %
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Miami Marlins - New York Mets Key Points
- Miami is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against NY Mets.
- Miami is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games.
- NY Mets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
- NY Mets is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home.
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Our Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction
Bet on the Mets to cover -1.5 runs for the second straight game. New York is 4-1 in their last five games and has covered the spread in all four wins. David Peterson’s numbers over his last five starts (1-4, 4.66 ERA) might not be impressive, but I believe he will pitch well against the Marlins, against whom he holds a 3-0 card in his last three faceoffs and averages 2.7 earned runs per game. Miami has had explosive nights behind the plate on some random days this season, but I highly doubt they can outgun Miami a night after giving up 19 runs.
Miami has tapped Edwin Cabrera to start on Saturday. Now, Cabrera is coming off a fantastic start against Atlanta on August 25, pitching seven scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts. He also averaged just 1.7 earned runs per game over his last three starts against the Mets. However, despite Cabrera's terrific numbers, it would still need a flawless game from him and more for the Marlins to beat a motivated Mets squad that is fighting for its postseason lives. In addition, Miami is susceptible to fizzling out late in the match because of its bullpen, which is sporting a horrendous 12.05 ERA.
Our betting prediction for the Miami Marlins vs. the New York Mets: the Mets -1.5 Runs
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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