New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Prediction & Picks - NFL

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New England Patriots
1/4/26 16:25
Miami Dolphins

Prediction:

 

Miami +10.5

-110
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 by Bill Christy in NFL Picks

The New England Patriots (13-3) will host the Miami Dolphins (7-9) in a divisional game to wrap the regular season. While Miami has already been eliminated from the playoffs, it will have a chance to play spoiler and prevent the Patriots from having any shot at the #1 overall seed for the AFC.

It has been another injury-ridden and underachieving year for Mike McDaniel’s Miami Dolphins. They lost Tyreek Hill relatively early in the season, and the team fell to 1-6 through their 1st 7 games of the season. But credit must be given to them and McDaniel, as they were able to put together 5 wins over their next 6 games and fought to get back in a position where the playoffs were a possibility. However, back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati closed the door on their chances. They are coming off a 20-17 win over Tampa Bay, which proved they have not completely packed it in just yet.

New England has certainly been the biggest surprise team of the season. Sure, many thought they would contend for the division, but no one saw 13 and possibly 14 wins coming from this team. Now, they have their eyes set on a potential 1 seed and a deep run at yet another Super Bowl. Drake Maye has been playing at an MVP caliber and just tossed 5 touchdowns last week against the Jets.

The Patriots are riding high, as they should be, but they can not afford to take this Miami team lightly if they want to keep their hopes of the 1 seed alive.

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Form

Table

Teams Pts P W L
3
New England Patriots
New England Patriots
0.824 17 14 3
22
Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins
0.412 17 7 10

New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins Latest Matches

New England Patriots
New England Patriots Latest matches
W W W L W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Dec 28, 2025 - NFL

New York Jets
10 :  42
New England Patriots

Dec 21, 2025 - NFL

Baltimore Ravens
24 :  28
New England Patriots

Dec 14, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
31 :  35
Buffalo Bills

Dec 1, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
33 :  15
New York Giants

Nov 23, 2025 - NFL

Cincinnati Bengals
20 :  26
New England Patriots

Nov 13, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
27 :  14
New York Jets
W W W W W L
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Dec 14, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
31 :  35
Buffalo Bills

Dec 1, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
33 :  15
New York Giants

Nov 13, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
27 :  14
New York Jets

Nov 2, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
24 :  23
Atlanta Falcons

Oct 26, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
32 :  13
Cleveland Browns

Sep 28, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
42 :  13
Carolina Panthers
W W W W W W
Victories

6/6 (100%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Dec 28, 2025 - NFL

New York Jets
10 :  42
New England Patriots

Dec 21, 2025 - NFL

Baltimore Ravens
24 :  28
New England Patriots

Nov 23, 2025 - NFL

Cincinnati Bengals
20 :  26
New England Patriots

Nov 9, 2025 - NFL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
23 :  28
New England Patriots

Oct 19, 2025 - NFL

Tennessee Titans
13 :  31
New England Patriots

Oct 12, 2025 - NFL

New Orleans Saints
19 :  25
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins Latest matches
W W W L L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Dec 28, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
20 :  17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Dec 21, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
21 :  45
Cincinnati Bengals

Dec 15, 2025 - NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers
28 :  15
Miami Dolphins

Dec 7, 2025 - NFL

New York Jets
10 :  34
Miami Dolphins

Nov 30, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
21 :  17
New Orleans Saints

Nov 16, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
16 :  13
Washington Commanders
L W W W L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Dec 28, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
20 :  17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Dec 21, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
21 :  45
Cincinnati Bengals

Nov 30, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
21 :  17
New Orleans Saints

Nov 16, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
16 :  13
Washington Commanders

Nov 9, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
30 :  13
Buffalo Bills

Oct 30, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
6 :  28
Baltimore Ravens
L L L W W L
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Dec 15, 2025 - NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers
28 :  15
Miami Dolphins

Dec 7, 2025 - NFL

New York Jets
10 :  34
Miami Dolphins

Oct 26, 2025 - NFL

Atlanta Falcons
10 :  34
Miami Dolphins

Oct 19, 2025 - NFL

Cleveland Browns
31 :  6
Miami Dolphins

Oct 5, 2025 - NFL

Carolina Panthers
27 :  24
Miami Dolphins

Sep 18, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
31 :  21
Miami Dolphins

New England Patriots against Miami Dolphins : Head to Head (H2H)

New England Patriots

17 %

Miami Dolphins

83 %

Sep 14, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
27 :  33
New England Patriots

Nov 24, 2024 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
34 :  15
New England Patriots

Oct 6, 2024 - NFL

New England Patriots
10 :  15
Miami Dolphins

Oct 29, 2023 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
31 :  17
New England Patriots

Sep 17, 2023 - NFL

New England Patriots
17 :  24
Miami Dolphins

Jan 9, 2022 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
33 :  24
New England Patriots

New England Patriots - Miami Dolphins Key Points

  1. New England is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games played in January.
  2. New England is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games against Miami.
  3. Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New England.
  4. Miami is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games against an opponent in the AFC East division.

Our New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Prediction

The Patriots have been dealing with some off the field issues. Stefon Diggs and Christian Barmore are both looking at potential charges and have caused some distractions. The Dolphins have been playing better football over the later part of the season, but it feels like they should still be getting more points here against the powerhouse Patriots team. The public is backing the Patriots, which has pushed us to back the Dolphins here.

Our prediction for New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins: Miami +10.5

Prediction:

 

Miami +10.5

-110
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New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Picks