Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction & Picks - NFL

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Miami Dolphins
1/4/26 16:25
New England Patriots

Prediction:

 

Miami +10.5

-110
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 by Bill Christy in NFL Picks

The New England Patriots (13-3) will host the Miami Dolphins (7-9) in a divisional game to wrap the regular season. While Miami has already been eliminated from the playoffs, it will have a chance to play spoiler and prevent the Patriots from having any shot at the #1 overall seed for the AFC.

It has been another injury-ridden and underachieving year for Mike McDaniel’s Miami Dolphins. They lost Tyreek Hill relatively early in the season, and the team fell to 1-6 through their 1st 7 games of the season. But credit must be given to them and McDaniel, as they were able to put together 5 wins over their next 6 games and fought to get back in a position where the playoffs were a possibility. However, back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati closed the door on their chances. They are coming off a 20-17 win over Tampa Bay, which proved they have not completely packed it in just yet.

New England has certainly been the biggest surprise team of the season. Sure, many thought they would contend for the division, but no one saw 13 and possibly 14 wins coming from this team. Now, they have their eyes set on a potential 1 seed and a deep run at yet another Super Bowl. Drake Maye has been playing at an MVP caliber and just tossed 5 touchdowns last week against the Jets.

The Patriots are riding high, as they should be, but they can not afford to take this Miami team lightly if they want to keep their hopes of the 1 seed alive.

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Form

Table

Teams % P W D L
3
New England Patriots
New England Patriots
0.824 17 14 0 3
22
Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins
0.412 17 7 0 10

Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots Latest Matches

Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins Latest matches
W W W L L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Dec 28, 2025 - NFL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
17 :  20
Miami Dolphins

Dec 21, 2025 - NFL

Cincinnati Bengals
45 :  21
Miami Dolphins

Dec 15, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
15 :  28
Pittsburgh Steelers

Dec 7, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
34 :  10
New York Jets

Nov 30, 2025 - NFL

New Orleans Saints
17 :  21
Miami Dolphins

Nov 16, 2025 - NFL

Washington Commanders
13 :  16
Miami Dolphins
L W W W L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Dec 28, 2025 - NFL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
17 :  20
Miami Dolphins

Dec 21, 2025 - NFL

Cincinnati Bengals
45 :  21
Miami Dolphins

Nov 30, 2025 - NFL

New Orleans Saints
17 :  21
Miami Dolphins

Nov 16, 2025 - NFL

Washington Commanders
13 :  16
Miami Dolphins

Nov 9, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
13 :  30
Miami Dolphins

Oct 30, 2025 - NFL

Baltimore Ravens
28 :  6
Miami Dolphins
L L L W W L
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Dec 15, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
15 :  28
Pittsburgh Steelers

Dec 7, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
34 :  10
New York Jets

Oct 26, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
34 :  10
Atlanta Falcons

Oct 19, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
6 :  31
Cleveland Browns

Oct 5, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
24 :  27
Carolina Panthers

Sep 18, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
21 :  31
Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots
New England Patriots Latest matches
W W W L W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Dec 28, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
42 :  10
New York Jets

Dec 21, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
28 :  24
Baltimore Ravens

Dec 14, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
35 :  31
New England Patriots

Dec 1, 2025 - NFL

New York Giants
15 :  33
New England Patriots

Nov 23, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
26 :  20
Cincinnati Bengals

Nov 13, 2025 - NFL

New York Jets
14 :  27
New England Patriots
W W W W W L
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Dec 14, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
35 :  31
New England Patriots

Dec 1, 2025 - NFL

New York Giants
15 :  33
New England Patriots

Nov 13, 2025 - NFL

New York Jets
14 :  27
New England Patriots

Nov 2, 2025 - NFL

Atlanta Falcons
23 :  24
New England Patriots

Oct 26, 2025 - NFL

Cleveland Browns
13 :  32
New England Patriots

Sep 28, 2025 - NFL

Carolina Panthers
13 :  42
New England Patriots
W W W W W W
Victories

6/6 (100%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Dec 28, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
42 :  10
New York Jets

Dec 21, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
28 :  24
Baltimore Ravens

Nov 23, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
26 :  20
Cincinnati Bengals

Nov 9, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
28 :  23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Oct 19, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
31 :  13
Tennessee Titans

Oct 12, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
25 :  19
New Orleans Saints

Miami Dolphins against New England Patriots : Head to Head (H2H)

Miami Dolphins

83 %

Draw

0 %

New England Patriots

17 %

Sep 14, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
33 :  27
Miami Dolphins

Nov 24, 2024 - NFL

New England Patriots
15 :  34
Miami Dolphins

Oct 6, 2024 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
15 :  10
New England Patriots

Oct 29, 2023 - NFL

New England Patriots
17 :  31
Miami Dolphins

Sep 17, 2023 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
24 :  17
New England Patriots

Jan 9, 2022 - NFL

New England Patriots
24 :  33
Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins - New England Patriots Key Points

  1. New England is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games played in January.
  2. New England is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games against Miami.
  3. Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New England.
  4. Miami is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games against an opponent in the AFC East division.

Our Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction

The Patriots have been dealing with some off the field issues. Stefon Diggs and Christian Barmore are both looking at potential charges and have caused some distractions. The Dolphins have been playing better football over the later part of the season, but it feels like they should still be getting more points here against the powerhouse Patriots team. The public is backing the Patriots, which has pushed us to back the Dolphins here.

Our prediction for New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins: Miami +10.5

Prediction:

 

Miami +10.5

-110
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Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Picks