Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa Prediction & Picks - UFC Fight Night
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by Bill Christy | in MMA Picks
Alessandro Costa (15-5-0) joins a group of fighters on this card who are stepping in on short notice. He will be replacing Imanol Rodriguez, who withdrew due to injury. He will be facing Matt Schnell (17-10-0) and finds himself as a very heavy favorite.
36-year-old veteran Matt Schnell’s best days are likely behind him. He initially laid his gloves down back in 2024 but has come back to fight since. He has lost 4 of his last 5 fights and was finished in all 4 of those losses. He did pick up a unanimous victory over Jimmy Flick in April of 2025 but is coming off a submission loss to Joseph Morales in his last fight back in November. Any fight could potentially be the last for Schnell, and if he fights like it is going to be his last, maybe there is a window of opportunity to shock Costa here.
Costa has been a boom-or-bust fighter since entering the UFC. He is 3-3 since joining and has either won or lost by KO/TKO in all but 1 of those fights. He is coming off a victory over Stewart Nicoll in his last fight back in April, but has lost his previous bout against Aiden Coria by KO/TKO.
Costa is not only a heavy favorite, but also a heavy favorite to win by KO/TKO. He will likely look to end this one early in the fight.
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Matt Schnell - Alessandro Costa Key Points
- Schnell has not gone over 1.5 Rounds in 3 of his last 5 fights.
- Schnell has not gone over 1.5 Rounds in 8 of his last 9 losses.
- Costa has not gone over 1.5 Rounds in 3 of his last 4 wins.
- Costa has picked up a finish win in 12 of his 15 career wins.
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Our Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa Prediction
Schnell has looked like a shell of himself in his recent fights. We believe the oddsmakers have this one right with Costa as a heavy favorite, but it is too rich for our blood to take the money line. We believe this will end early, and the play under the total rounds looks prime for the taking. We like Costa to get the job done here in under 1.5 rounds.
Our prediction for Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa: Over 1.5 Rounds
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
