Mary Stoiana vs Paula Badosa Prediction & Picks - WTA Sao Paulo
WTA - WTA Sao Paulo
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by Lou Aguila | in Tennis Picks
Fresh off a gutsy victory in the second round, Paula Badosa targets a more convincing win over Mary Stoiana in the quarterfinals of the 2026 Sao Paulo Open.
Badosa is a +100 to win in straight sets over Stoiana, who is 4-7 vs. top-100 players.
Current Form:
Mary Stoiana barged into the quarterfinals of the 2026 Sao Paulo Open with a straight-sets win over Dominika Salkova, 7-6, 6-1. Stoiana, 3-1 in her last 4 matches, also swept newly crowned Barranquilla champion Claire Liu 6-3, 7-5 in the first round.
Paula Badosa clawed back from a set down to defeat Jazmin Ortenzi 4-6, 6-2, 6-2 in the second round. Badosa, who swept Justina Mikulskyte 6-3, 6-2 in the first round, sports a 10-9 record on hard courts and a 64 percent win rate on the surface.
The Matchup: This marks the first time Badosa and Stoiana will play against each other on the WTA Tour.
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Mary Stoiana vs Paula Badosa Form
Mary Stoiana and Paula Badosa Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Sep 17, 2026 - WTA Sao Paulo
Sep 16, 2026 - WTA Sao Paulo
Sep 1, 2026 - WTA US Open
Aug 28, 2026 - WTA US Open
Aug 26, 2026 - WTA US Open
Aug 25, 2026 - WTA US Open
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Sep 17, 2026 - WTA Sao Paulo
Sep 16, 2026 - WTA Sao Paulo
Sep 3, 2026 - WTA US Open
Sep 1, 2026 - WTA US Open
Jul 24, 2026 - WTA Hamburg Open
Jul 23, 2026 - WTA Hamburg Open
Mary Stoiana - Paula Badosa Key Points
- Paula Badosa has a 64 percent win rate on hard courts.
- Paula Badosa is 3-2 in quarterfinal matches in 2026.
- Mary Stoiana is 18-13 on hard courts in 2026.
- Mary Stoiana is 3-6 vs. top-100 players in 2026.
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Our Mary Stoiana vs Paula Badosa Prediction
The Difference Maker: Badosa is winning 66.8 percent of her first serves and averaging 5.1 aces on hard courts in 2026.
Stoiana is winning 59.1 percent of her first serves and averaging 1.7 aces in hard-court matches this year.
What to Expect: Badosa overpowers Stoiana in a sweep. In her last match against Ortenzi, Badosa surrendered four service games, twice in the first set. Don’t expect the former world No.2 to concede too many service games in this match since Stoiana is not known for massive serves.
Fearless Forecast: Paula Badosa wins 6-4, 6-3
Our betting prediction for Paula Badosa vs. Mary Stoiana: Paula Badosa 2:0 Sets
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
