Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction & Picks - Europa League

Europe - Europa League

Manchester United
5/8/25 15:00
Athletic Bilbao

Prediction:

 

Athletic Bilbao to win

+255
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 by Simon Day | in Europa League Picks

After a fantastic team performance in Spain last week, Manchester United took a commanding 3-0 lead into the second leg of their Europa League semi-final against Athletic Bilbao. That shock first leg victory was aided by a red card for Bilbao defender Dani Vivian, but in truth, United looked in control of the game even before Bilbao were reduced to ten men.

A header from midfielder Casemiro gave United the lead midway through the first half, before Vivian was given his marching orders for bringing down Rasmus Højlund in the penalty area on 38 minutes. United skipper Bruno Fernandes converted the penalty and made it 3-0 on the stroke of half time when he calmly lobbed home following a through ball from Manuel Ugarte. The second half was a subdued affair with no more goals, but barring a miraculous turnaround from the Spanish side, United will reach their first European final since 2021. 

Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao Form

Manchester United and Athletic Bilbao Latest Matches

Manchester United
Manchester United Latest matches
L W L D W L
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4.5 Total goals
67% BTTS
2.17 Goals scored
2.33 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

May 4, 2025 - Premier League

Brentford
4 :  3
Manchester United

May 1, 2025 - Europa League

Athletic Bilbao
0 :  3
Manchester United

Apr 27, 2025 - Premier League

Bournemouth
1 :  1
Manchester United

Apr 20, 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
0 :  1
Wolves

Apr 17, 2025 - Europa League

Manchester United
5 :  4
Lyon

Apr 13, 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle
4 :  1
Manchester United
D D W D W L
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

Apr 20, 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
0 :  1
Wolves

Apr 17, 2025 - Europa League

Manchester United
5 :  4
Lyon

Apr 6, 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
0 :  0
Manchester City

Mar 13, 2025 - Europa League

Manchester United
4 :  1
Real Sociedad

Mar 9, 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
1 :  1
Arsenal

Mar 2, 2025 - FA Cup

Manchester United
1 :  1
Fulham
L D L D W L
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.67 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
2 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

May 4, 2025 - Premier League

Brentford
4 :  3
Manchester United

May 1, 2025 - Europa League

Athletic Bilbao
0 :  3
Manchester United

Apr 27, 2025 - Premier League

Bournemouth
1 :  1
Manchester United

Apr 13, 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle
4 :  1
Manchester United

Apr 10, 2025 - Europa League

Lyon
2 :  2
Manchester United

Apr 1, 2025 - Premier League

Nottingham Forest
1 :  0
Manchester United
Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao Latest matches
W W L W L D
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.83 Total goals
17% BTTS
1 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

May 4, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Sociedad
0 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

May 1, 2025 - Europa League

Athletic Bilbao
0 :  3
Manchester United

Apr 23, 2025 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
1 :  0
Las Palmas

Apr 20, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
1 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

Apr 17, 2025 - Europa League

Athletic Bilbao
2 :  0
Rangers

Apr 13, 2025 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
3 :  1
Rayo Vallecano
W D W W W L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.33 Total goals
33% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

May 1, 2025 - Europa League

Athletic Bilbao
0 :  3
Manchester United

Apr 23, 2025 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
1 :  0
Las Palmas

Apr 17, 2025 - Europa League

Athletic Bilbao
2 :  0
Rangers

Apr 13, 2025 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
3 :  1
Rayo Vallecano

Mar 30, 2025 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
0 :  0
Osasuna

Mar 13, 2025 - Europa League

Athletic Bilbao
3 :  1
Roma
L W D D L D
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

0.83 Total goals
17% BTTS
0.33 Goals scored
0.5 Goals conceded
17% Over 2.5
83% Under 2.5

May 4, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Sociedad
0 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

Apr 20, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
1 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

Apr 10, 2025 - Europa League

Rangers
0 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

Apr 6, 2025 - LaLiga

Villarreal
0 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

Mar 16, 2025 - LaLiga

Sevilla
0 :  1
Athletic Bilbao

Mar 6, 2025 - Europa League

Roma
2 :  1
Athletic Bilbao

Manchester United against Athletic Bilbao : Head to Head (H2H)

May 1, 2025 - Europa League

Athletic Bilbao
0 :  3
Manchester United

Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao: Form Analysis

United's excellent form in Europe is in stark contrast to their woeful domestic displays. Sunday's 4-3 loss at Brentford means that United have now lost 16 of their 35 top flight games this season and are now guaranteed to register their lowest ever Premier League finish. However, United are unbeaten in their 13 Europa League games this season and have regularly saved their best performances for Thursday nights. 

Bilbao struggling on the road

Following Sunday night's 0-0 draw at Real Sociedad, Bilbao have now gone four away games in a row without scoring, a record that does little to suggest they are capable of overturning their first leg deficit at Old Trafford. Despite that dreadful away form, Ernesto Valverde's side are on course for a top four finish in La Liga. With just four games remaining, they are three points clear of fifth place Villarreal, and with a fairly soft run of fixtures coming up, Valverde's men are in prime position to reach next season's Champions League.

Manchester United against Athletic Bilbao Lineups: Starting 11

Manchester United

Formation : 3 - 4 - 3

24
A. Onana
2
V. Lindelof
5
H. Maguire
15
L. Yoro
3
N. Mazraoui
18
Casemiro
25
M. Ugarte
13
P. Dorgu
8
B. Fernandes
9
R. Hojlund
17
A. Garnacho
21
M. Sannadi
7
A. Berenguer
20
U. Gomez
11
A. Djalo
16
I. Ruiz De Galarreta
23
M. Jauregizar
17
Y. Berchiche
14
U. Nunez
5
Y. Alvarez
2
A. Gorosabel
13
J. Agirrezabala

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

Athletic Bilbao

Missing players

Manchester United
Manchester United
Defender

L. Martinez

A. Heaven

D. Dalot

Forward

J. Zirkzee

Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao
Midfielder

O. Sancet

Manchester United & Athletic Bilbao Squad Analysis

United defender Matthijs De Ligt suffered a knock in the defeat at Brentford and is rated as doubtful for Thursday night's game. In his absence, Ruben Amorim is likely to stick with the same starting eleven that triumphed in Bilbao, with Victor Lindelof retaining his place at center half after impressing in the first leg. 

Possible United starting eleven: Onana; Yoro, Maguire, Lindelof; Mazraoui, Ugarte, Casemiro, Dorgu; Fernandes, Garnacho; Hojlund

Problems mounting up for Bilbao 

Dani Vivian's first leg red card means he misses the trip to Manchester, with Aitor Paredes his probable replacement. Top scorer Oihan Sanchet is still out with a hamstring problem, whilst fellow forward Nico Williams is looking slightly short of full fitness following his recent groin problem. To add to manager Ernesto Valverde's problems, he needs to choose between Spanish number one Unai Simon and Julen Agirrezabala in goal. The latter has been the regular Europa League starter this season, but his shaky display last week may mean that Valverde turns to Simon on Thursday night. 

Possible Bilbao starting eleven: Simon; De Marcos, Paredes, Yeray, Yuri; Jauregizar, Benat; I Williams, Berenguer, N Williams; Guruzeta

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Manchester United
CD Huachipato Athletic Bilbao
Top Goalscorer
Portugal B. Fernandes (17 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Spain O. Sancet (17 Goals)
Best assists
Portugal B. Fernandes (16 Assists)
Best assists
Ghana I. Williams (10 Assists)
Spain A. Berenguer (10 Assists)

Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao Key Points

  1. United have won just 2 of their last 10 Premier League home games
  2. Bilbao have scored in 9 of their last 10 Europa League away games
  3. United have lost 16 of their 35 Premier League games this season
  4. Bilbao have lost 2 of their last 12 games in all competitions

Our Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction

Barring a miracle, United will take the aggregate victory, but we think Bilbao have the ability to make the home side sweat a little for their place in the final. With a three goal deficit to overcome, the Spaniards will have to play on the front foot, and given United's sometimes fragile defense, that policy could be a fruitful one. It's hard to make a case for Bilbao claiming the three (or more) goal victory they need, but their odds of 3.55 on winning the second leg are too long to ignore.  Our prediction for Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao is: Athletic Bilbao to win.

Prediction:

 

Athletic Bilbao to win

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Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao - Other Interesting Picks

Bilbao to be winning at half time

Odds +300
Bilbao's only chance of overturning the tie requires them to make a lightning fast start at Old Trafford. With the likes of Nico Williams and Inaki Williams in their ranks, we think the Spaniards have the capability to do exactly that.
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Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao Picks