Mali vs Zambia Prediction & Picks - AFCON

Africa - AFCON

Mali
12/22/25 09:00
Zambia

Prediction:

 

Nene Dorgeles to Score

+265
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 by Bradley Gibbs | in AFCON Picks

The first African Cup of Nations game to kick off on Monday sees Mali take on Zambia at Stade Mohamed V, situated in Casablanca. In the early betting, the Eagles are strongly fancied to get the job done against a Zambia side that is expected to struggle at this tournament. Having said that, it is the Zambians who have arguably performed better at AFCON in recent times, reaching the final back in 2012, where they got the job done, becoming champions of Africa thanks to a penalty shootout success over the Ivory Coast. 

For Mali, AFCON success remains elusive, but Tom Saintfet will be hoping to change that. The Belgian has been in charge since late 2024, and in recent times, there have been signs of improvement from the Eagles, who are definitely getting stronger at the back. Can they kick this competition off by keeping it tight against the Copper Bullets? Let's find out. 

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Mali vs Zambia Form

Table

Teams Pts P W D L GD
2 Mali
3 3 0 3 0 0
4 Zambia
2 3 0 2 1 -3

Mali and Zambia Latest Matches

Mali
Mali Latest matches
L W L W W D
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2 Total goals
17% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
0.5 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

Nov 18, 2025 - International Friendlies

Jordan
0 :  0
Mali

Oct 12, 2025 - World Cup

Mali
4 :  1
Madagascar

Oct 8, 2025 - World Cup

Chad
0 :  2
Mali

Sep 8, 2025 - World Cup

Ghana
1 :  0
Mali

Sep 4, 2025 - World Cup

Mali
3 :  0
Comoros

Jun 5, 2025 - International Friendlies

DR Congo
1 :  0
Mali
L D W W W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
50% BTTS
2.67 Goals scored
0.67 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

Oct 12, 2025 - World Cup

Mali
4 :  1
Madagascar

Sep 4, 2025 - World Cup

Mali
3 :  0
Comoros

Nov 19, 2024 - AFCON

Mali
6 :  0
Eswatini

Oct 11, 2024 - AFCON

Mali
1 :  0
Guinea-Bissau

Sep 6, 2024 - AFCON

Mali
1 :  1
Mozambique

Jun 6, 2024 - World Cup

Mali
1 :  2
Ghana
W D L L W D
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.17 Total goals
0% BTTS
0.83 Goals scored
0.33 Goals conceded
17% Over 2.5
83% Under 2.5

Nov 18, 2025 - International Friendlies

Jordan
0 :  0
Mali

Oct 8, 2025 - World Cup

Chad
0 :  2
Mali

Sep 8, 2025 - World Cup

Ghana
1 :  0
Mali

Jun 5, 2025 - International Friendlies

DR Congo
1 :  0
Mali

Mar 24, 2025 - World Cup

Central African Republic
0 :  0
Mali

Mar 20, 2025 - World Cup

Comoros
0 :  3
Mali
Zambia
Zambia Latest matches
L L W L L L
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

5/6 (83%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.83 Total goals
17% BTTS
0.33 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
17% Over 2.5
83% Under 2.5

Dec 16, 2025 - International Friendlies

DR Congo
2 :  0
Zambia

Nov 15, 2025 - International Friendlies

South Africa
3 :  1
Zambia

Oct 12, 2025 - World Cup

Zambia
0 :  1
Niger

Oct 8, 2025 - World Cup

Tanzania
0 :  1
Zambia

Sep 8, 2025 - World Cup

Zambia
0 :  2
Morocco

Aug 17, 2025 - African Nations Championship

Zambia
0 :  1
Kenya
W L L L L L
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

5/6 (83%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.5 Total goals
17% BTTS
0.33 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
17% Over 2.5
83% Under 2.5

Oct 12, 2025 - World Cup

Zambia
0 :  1
Niger

Sep 8, 2025 - World Cup

Zambia
0 :  2
Morocco

Aug 17, 2025 - African Nations Championship

Zambia
0 :  1
Kenya

Aug 10, 2025 - African Nations Championship

Zambia
1 :  2
Angola

Jun 6, 2025 - COSAFA Cup

Zambia
0 :  1
Comoros

Nov 15, 2024 - AFCON

Zambia
1 :  0
Côte d'Ivoire
D L L W L L
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals
50% BTTS
1 Goals scored
2.17 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Dec 16, 2025 - International Friendlies

DR Congo
2 :  0
Zambia

Nov 15, 2025 - International Friendlies

South Africa
3 :  1
Zambia

Oct 8, 2025 - World Cup

Tanzania
0 :  1
Zambia

Aug 14, 2025 - African Nations Championship

Morocco
3 :  1
Zambia

Aug 7, 2025 - African Nations Championship

DR Congo
2 :  0
Zambia

Jun 11, 2025 - COSAFA Cup

Botswana
3 :  3
Zambia

Mali - Zambia: Form Analysis

From a recent form point of view, the Eagles haven't done much wrong, with Mali either tying or winning four of their last five. During that time, they've secured three wins, beating the likes of Madagascar, Chad and Comoros. Last time out, they tied 0-0 with Jordan. Saintfelt's men have also kept three clean sheets in their last five, and they'll absolutely be looking to build on that defensive solidity here. 

For the Zambians, it hasn't gone well in recent times.

The Copper Bullets have not exactly penetrated their opponents in recent times, losing each of their last four games, failing to score in two of those. They warmed up for this tournament with a defeat against the Democratic Republic of Congo, losing by two goals to zero, which is not a result that point towards them making much headway in Morocco, let's be honest. 

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Mali against Zambia Lineups: Starting 11

Mali

Formation : 3 - 5 - 1 - 1

16
D. Diarra
15
M. Fofana
5
A. Diaby
3
A. Dante
7
N. Dorgeles
26
W. Coulibaly
23
A. Dieng
20
M. Sangare
17
L. Sinayoko
19
K. Doumbia
9
E. Toure
10
F. Sakala
20
P. Daka
17
K. Kangwa
5
M. Chaiwa
25
O. Tembo
9
L. Banda
8
L. Musonda
6
B. Sakala
21
D. Chanda
2
M. Banda
1
W. Mwanza

Formation : 4 - 4 - 2

Zambia

Substitutes

Mali
Mali
Goalkeeper

M. Samassa

I. Diawara

Defender

F. Doucoure

N. Gassama

H. Traore

Midfielder

G. Diarra

E. Toure 76'

M. Doumbia

N. Dorgeles 76'

O. Camara

L. Coulibaly

A. Haidara

K. Doumbia 86'

I. Sissoko

M. Camara

Forward

M. Camara

M. Doumbia

G. Diakite

Zambia
Zambia
Goalkeeper

F. Mwansa

T. Mulenga

Defender

D. Hamansenya

F. Musonda

Midfielder

D. Simukonda

M. Chaiwa 67'

O. Chisala

J. Liteta

W. Chisala

G. Kalusa

K. Chongo

K. Kangwa 90'

Forward

E. Mandanji

K. Musonda

F. Sakala 78'

J. Sabobo

L. Banda 67'

J. Lahne

Missing players

Mali
Mali
Defender

S. Niakate

Midfielder

Y. Bissouma

Zambia
Zambia

Mali & Zambia Squad Analysis

Yves Bissouma needs to redeem himself after some poor performances in England. Keen to make amends for his national team, the Tottenham midfielder can count on solid players across the board, but will be absent for this first match, as will Braga defender Sikou Niakate and Paris FC full-back Hamari Traore.

In attack, Lassine Sinayoko is scoring goals for Auxerre. He will be supported by the surprising and decisive Kamory Doumbia of Stade Brestois and the nimble Nene Dorgeles of Fenerbahçe. With Amadou Haidara of Leipzig and Mamadou Sangaré of Lens in midfield, for example, you have all the qualities you need to get off to a perfect start in the Africa Cup of Nations.

Mali boasts some top players including Bissouma, Sinayoko, Doumbia, Dorgeles, Haidara, Sangaré, and Niakaté.

Zambia's squad is inferior to Mali's, which is no surprise, but seems to be complete. No absences are to be lamented at this stage. The key players are well known in Europe: Patson Daka (Leicester) and Stopila Sunzu (formerly of Sochaux, Lille, and Metz).

The rest of the squad are players who play in lower divisions. As you can see, we should have a low block, capable of playing with the speed of the Foxes' striker. The aim is to maximize opportunities to shake Mali.

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Mali
CD Huachipato Zambia
Top Goalscorer
Mali L. Sinayoko (3 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Zambia P. Daka (1 Goals)
Best assists
Best assists
Zambia M. Banda (1 Assists)

Mali - Zambia Key Points

  1. Nene Dorgeles scored in his last appearance for Mali.
  2. Nene Dorgeles has now scored in two of his last three games for Mali.
  3. In AFCON qualifying, Nene Dorgeles notched three times in just two appearances for Mali.
  4. For Fenerbahce this season, Nene Dorgeles averages 0.89 shots on target per 90 minutes.
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Our Mali vs Zambia Prediction

You wouldn't call Nene Dorgeles a prolific scorer for Fenerbahce, but the young speedster has looked a real livewire for the Turkish outfit this season, especially in the UEFA Europa League, getting himself into some very promising shooting areas. He also have a fine recent record for Mali.

The scorer of two goals in his last three appearances for Mali, Dorgeles, who is no stranger to taking on his man before firing off shots, has more then enough quality to hurt the Zambians, and given how poor the Copper Bullets have been at the back in recent times, he looks generously priced to notch. 

Our Mali vs Zambia Pick: Nene Dorgeles to Score. 

Prediction:

 

Nene Dorgeles to Score

+265
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Mali vs Zambia - Other Interesting Picks

Nene Dorgeles to Assist

Odds +425
At odds of +425, I also cannot resist taking Nene Dorgeles to produce an assist. On the big stage for Fenerbahce this season, Dorgeles has created plenty of chances, producing four assists, including two in the UEFA Europa League, where he averages an eye-catching 0.49 expected assisted goals per 90 minutes. Do not be surprised if he creates high-quality chances against a weak Zambian defense.
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Mali vs Zambia match : Frequently asked questions

This game will take place at Stade Mohamed V in the city of Casablanca.

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Mali vs Zambia Picks