Lorenzo Musetti vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction & Picks - ATP Italian Open

Prediction published on 5/13/25, 3:39 AM  by Bradley Gibbs in ATP Italian Open Picks

One of Tuesday's more intriguing ATP Rome matches is the one between Lorenzo Musetti and Daniil Medvedev. The Italian has enjoyed a fantastic 2025 campaign so far, winning with regularity, so much so that he's risen to number nine in the world rankings. We saw Musetti reach the final in Monte Carlo, while he reached the semi-finals in Madrid recently, losing out to new world number five Jack Draper. Now playing in his home nation of Italy, Musetti is fancied by the early market to get the job done against Medvedev, who is now ranked 11th. 

We maybe haven't quite seen the best of Medvedev in 2025, but he continues to be at top player, who doesn't many matches. He's won five of last six on clay, with his only recent loss coming to world number seven Casper Ruud. We also shouldn't forget that the Russian has shown a fondness for the clay courts in the Italian capital before, winning this tournament as recently as 2023, so don't be surprised if he delivers a performance that is stronger than the early market expects.