Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Bublik Prediction & Picks - Hong Kong Open

Prediction published on 1/10/26, 10:37 PM  by Lou Aguila | Modified on 1/13/26 at 4:55 AM in Tennis Picks

No.1 seed Lorenzo Musetti of Italy will battle the No.2 seed Alexander Zverev of Kazakhstan in the men’s singles final of the 2026 Hong Kong Tennis Championships on Sunday.

Musetti is the underdog in this matchup at +104 because of his 1-2 head-to-head record against Bublik.

Best Pick: Alexander Bublik at -126

Potential Payout: Bet $126 to win $226

Current Form:

Musetti clinched his first final appearance of the new season after topping Alexander Zverev 6-7, 7-5, 6-4 in the semifinals. Musetti persevered after dropping the first set via tiebreaker, getting the better of the exchanges by finding the lines and pressuring Rublev to commit unforced errors. Fresh off his first ATP Tour Finals, Musetti is winning 70 percent of his first ball and converting 45 percent of breakpoint chances in this tournament.

Meanwhile, Bublik secured a shot at another ATP title after grinding out a comeback win over Marcos Giron of the United States 3-6, 6-4, 6-2 in the semis. After dispatching Botic Van de Zandschulp and Juncheng Shang in straight sets, Bublik faced a tougher challenge from Giron, who managed to break him twice in the first set. Bublik tightened his service game in the final two sets to hold his remaining serves while securing three breakpoint conversions.