ATP - ATP Chengdu Open
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by Lou Aguila in Tennis Picks
On Tuesday, Lorenzo Musetti of Italy dukes it out with Alejandro Tabilo in a fiery final encounter at the 2025 Chengdu Open.
A clear-cut moneyline favorite at -275, Musetti offers a larger payout on the spread line, where you can win as much as $310 for every $100 Bet.
Current Form:
After pulling off a shaky win against Dino Prizmic in the second round 7-5 3-6 6-2, Musetti has played dominant tennis in the last two rounds, taking down Nikoloz Basilashvili 6-3 6-3 and Alexander Shevchenko 6-3 6-1 in straight sets. Seeded No.1 at this ATP 250 event, Musetti has held 90 percent of his serves while capturing 83 percent of his first serves in this tournament.
Tabilo topped Brandon Nakashima 6-4, 7-6 to secure his place in the final of the 2025 Chengdu Open, his first final on the ATP Main Tour this year. On the doorstep of another ATP title, Tabilo needed to win five straight matches to get where he is right now. Tabilo, who has dropped only three out of 75 service games in this tourney, also took down top-100 caliber opponents such as Jordan Thompson, Luciano Darderi, and Christopher O’Connell.
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Lorenzo Musetti vs Alejandro Tabilo Form
Lorenzo Musetti and Alejandro Tabilo Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Sep 22, 2025 - ATP Chengdu Open
Sep 21, 2025 - ATP Chengdu Open
Sep 20, 2025 - ATP Chengdu Open
Sep 3, 2025 - ATP US Open
Sep 1, 2025 - ATP US Open
Aug 30, 2025 - ATP US Open
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
Sep 22, 2025 - ATP Chengdu Open
Sep 21, 2025 - ATP Chengdu Open
Sep 19, 2025 - ATP Chengdu Open
Sep 18, 2025 - ATP Chengdu Open
Sep 17, 2025 - ATP Chengdu Open
Sep 16, 2025 - ATP Chengdu Open
Lorenzo Musetti - Alejandro Tabilo Key Points
- Alejandro Tabilo defeated Brandon Nakashima 6-4, 7-5 in the semifinal of the 2025 Chengdu Open.
- Alejandro Tabilo is 14-10 on the hard court in 2025.
- Lorenzo Musetti is 14-8 on the hard court in 2025.
- Lorenzo Musetti defeated Alexander Shevchenko 6-3 6-1 in the semifinal of the 2025 Chengdu Open.
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Our Lorenzo Musetti vs Alejandro Tabilo Prediction
Lorenzo Musetti should prepare for an acid test from an in-form Alejandro Tabilo in their intriguing championship showdown on Tuesday. Musetti may be the favorite, but the Chilean has demonstrated fantastic form after racking up five impressive victories in Chengdu, including a two-set win over Nakashima in the semis. Ranked No.9 in the world, Musetti is bringing his top-10 pedigree and a 1-0 head-to-head record over Tabilo into their title match. Musetti swept Tabilo in their first encounter 6-2, 6-0 in a clay court tourney at the 2021 Antalya Challenger 6-2, 6-0.
However, with this upcoming match set four years after their first clash and this being played on the hard court, the situation and playing conditions will be unlike anything before. Musetti remains a strong moneyline pick with MatchStats giving him a 73 percent win probability, but Tabilo appears to be a more valuable pick at +2.5 Games (+102) as the Chilean has the form and momentum to push the top-seed to the limit on Tuesday.
Fearless Forecast: Lorenzo Musetti defeats Alejandro Tabilo 7-6, 6-4, 7-6
Our betting prediction for Lorenzo Musetti vs. Alejandro Tabilo: Alejandro Tabilo +2.5 Games
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