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by Tyler Doty | in WNBA Picks
The Minnesota Lynx welcome the Las Vegas Aces to Target Center tonight in a pivotal Commissioner’s Cup matchup between two franchises trending in opposite directions. The Aces, defending WNBA champions, find themselves in unfamiliar territory at 5-5 on the season, while the Lynx have emerged as a powerhouse with a 10-1 record and sole possession of first place in the league.
Las Vegas enters this contest having dropped three of its last four games, including a disappointing 76-70 road loss to the Phoenix Mercury. With key injuries and roster rotation issues, the Aces have struggled to maintain the dominance that defined their title-winning campaign in 2023. Their offense has looked disjointed at times, particularly late in games, and their once-stout defense has shown signs of vulnerability.
Minnesota, on the other hand, has looked like the WNBA’s most complete team through the first month and a half of the season. Since suffering their only loss—a tight road defeat in Seattle—the Lynx have reeled off win after win, including a 101-78 dismantling of the Los Angeles Sparks over the weekend. They’ve now won nine of their last ten games and are 5-0 at home, where they’re averaging 87.4 points per game and stifling opponents with elite defense.
The Lynx are riding a five-game home win streak and appear supremely confident at Target Center. They’re executing on both ends of the floor with minimal turnovers and high assist totals. In contrast, the Aces have looked increasingly vulnerable on the road, and if Wilson is unable to suit up, they’ll be missing their leading scorer and defensive anchor.
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Las Vegas Aces - Minnesota Lynx Key Points
- The Lynx are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games at home vs. the Aces
- The Aces are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games
- The Over is 4-2 in the Aces' last 6 games
- The Over is 4-2 in the Lynx's last 6 games vs. the Aces
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Our Las Vegas Aces vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction
Injuries are a significant storyline heading into Tuesday’s game. Las Vegas will be without key role players Megan Gustafson and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, thinning an already shallow bench. Even more concerning, A’ja Wilson is currently listed as day-to-day. Her status could drastically alter the competitive landscape of this game. Without Wilson, the Aces will struggle to match Minnesota’s size, interior scoring, and rebounding presence.
Minnesota is also missing a few depth pieces, including Aubrey Griffin, Dorka Juhasz, and Jessica Shepard. However, their rotation has adapted seamlessly thanks to the outstanding form of MVP frontrunner Napheesa Collier, who is averaging 26.1 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 2.5 steals per game. Her two-way impact is a major reason why Minnesota has separated itself from the rest of the league early on.
Statistically, the Lynx dominate this matchup. They rank higher than the Aces in virtually every key category—points per game, field goal percentage, three-point shooting, rebounds, and defensive efficiency. Las Vegas has slipped into the bottom half of the league in scoring defense and has struggled to generate fast-break opportunities and transition points.
Our prediction for Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: Lynx to win.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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