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by Erik Gibbs in NFL Picks
The NFL maintains its drive for global coverage with Brazil hosting the opening fixtures of the Chargers and the Kansas Chiefs for the 2025 season, starting at Corinthians Arena. It's not just another match; it's opening day for Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh's second season in charge and the latest installment of Kansas City's ongoing quest for dynasty status. Chiefs, with three consecutive AFC crowns, still set the standard for the league, but the Chargers are starting to look like serious contenders after an 11-win season of 2024, their strongest campaign since 2018.
What makes that rivalry especially compelling is that it pairs extremes: one club built on established dominance, the other looking to establish that it belongs in that same top-tier discussion. Kansas City has stability in Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, perhaps the most successful QB coach duo in NFL history.
In the other corner, Los Angeles comes to town with new players, better roster construction, and all sorts of optimism. Add in the level of international play, dubious playing surface in São Paulo, and early-season skepticism, and you've got yourself a mouth-watering showdown.
The Chargers took a massive step last year with Harbaugh. Eleven wins gave the team its first trip to the postseason since 2022 and just its second since 2018. It was Harbaugh's signature all right: hard-nosed, run-heavy offense spearheaded by a rugged line and level-headed play calling. This year, that formula is tested again, with Los Angeles looking to give its franchise consecutive seasons with postseason visits for the first time since 2009.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers Form
Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers Latest Matches
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Kansas City Chiefs against Los Angeles Chargers : Head to Head (H2H)
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Kansas City Chiefs - Los Angeles Chargers: Form Analysis
The Chiefs of the other sort are league gold standards. They've hit three consecutive Super Bowls, captured two of them, and haven't experienced a non-playoff year since 2014. While super-bow awesome precedents are unparallelled, however, Kansas City's own regular season in 2024 was far from dominant.
Struggling offensively at times, most notably in creating explosive downfield plays, that's troubling heading into this year without suspended wide receiver Rashee Rice and with ongoing uncertainty over wide receiver Marquise Brown's health.
Defensively, however, the Chiefs remain stout. Steve Spagnuolo's unit has become one of the most consistent in the NFL, led by elite talents like Chris Jones up front and Nick Bolton at linebacker. They were pivotal to last year's postseason run, even as the offense sputtered. Against a physical Chargers team intent on pounding the rock, Kansas City's ability to hold up against the run will be a central storyline.
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Kansas City Chiefs & Los Angeles Chargers Squad Analysis
For Los Angeles, it all begins with Justin Herbert. Only 27 years old, Herbert already has over 21,000 passing yards and 137 touchdown passes, figures that make him one of the league's top quarterbacks.
He's added to his supporting cast with the Chargers signing Najee Harris to lead off at running back with rookie first-rounder Omarion Hampton. Ladd McConkey comes off a brilliant rookie season at wideout, with Tre Harris offering excellent depth. The largest upgrade might be upfront: signing Super Bowl winner Mekhi Becton should solidify the line of offense, giving Herbert that extra time to work with.
The Chargers' defense is less reliable. Khalil Mack is still a difference-maker, but depth is lacking up front and outside of Derwin James, their secondary is shaky. Second-year linebacker Daiyan Henley is one to watch after showing promise last year in his first campaign. To really threaten Kansas City, Los Angeles is going to need consistency from defense.
For the Chiefs, every road led to Patrick Mahomes. Creatively, calmly, and from nothing, he can do anything that most players can't, making him the most threatening footballer on the field. Without his best receiver choices, Mahomes can still elevate anyone on that field.
Nevertheless, offensive line is a real worry, especially with early-season consistency usually tenuous. Protection lapses might prevent Mahomes from attacking downfield or extending plays.
Defensively, Chris Jones is still a wrecking ball. With 80.5 career sacks and 37 pass deflections, he's something beyond a pass rusher—a game wrecker. Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill, and Leo Chenal's linebacking corps is one of the best in the NFL, blending speed, range, and instincts. Even without Justin Reid, that secondary should be competent with a front seven that provides steady pressure.
Kansas City Chiefs - Los Angeles Chargers Key Points
- The Over is 8-0 in the Chiefs’ last 8 season openers vs. AFC teams
- The Chargers are 5-1 in their last 6 season openers
- The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. AFC West teams
- The Chargers are 7-0 winning the first half in their last 7 September games as underdogs
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Our Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction
The São Paulo stage provides added uncertainty. Last year's Brazilian opener was troubled by bad field conditions, and while the league maintains that it has gotten better, players and coaches are being cautious. If it comes down to footing, that would play to Chargers' ground-and-pound attack with Harris and Hampton, primarily against a Chiefs team that seemed exploitable to the run late last year.
Recent history between these two teams also leans toward a close contest. The last three matchups yielded 36, 27, and 25 points, signaling that defensive struggles more often than not mark this series over explosive offenses. Games early in the schedule tend to go low-scoring because timing in the passing attack takes weeks to come together. That might exacerbate Kansas City's problems with its thin receiver corps and makeshift front line.
Still, the Chiefs are the Chiefs. With Mahomes under center and Reid pulling the strings, they find ways to win, no matter how imperfect the circumstances. But the Chargers' roster may be closer than people think. Herbert has the tools, Harbaugh has the scheme, and the backfield is built to attack Kansas City's defensive weak spots.
Los Angeles makes a statement in Brazil, leveraging its ground game to control tempo while the defense does just enough to limit Mahomes' magic. The Chiefs will still be there in January, but on this international stage, it feels like the Chargers' moment. Our prediction for LA Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Over 46.5 points.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers - Other Interesting Picks
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