Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett Prediction & Picks - UFC #324
UFC - UFC #324
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by Bill Christy | in UFC Picks
The 1st main event in 2026 for the UFC will feature a new champion being crowned in the Lightweight division. With Ilia Topuria deciding to take time away from fighting, he vacated the Lightweight title. Now, veteran and former champion, Justin Gaethje will try become champion once again. However, a loss here would likely end title shot opportunities. He will face off with one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC, Paddy “the baddy” Pimblett. A fighter who is on the opposite side of his career compared to Gaethje. Paddy is still young and rising the ranks since he entered the UFC. A win here will solidify his own promises of becoming champion so quickly and proving all his doubters wrong.
Justin Gaethje is coming into this fight having won 3 of his last 5. Two of those 3 wins came over Rafael Fiziev and the other over Dustin Poirier. His losses were to Charles Oliveira and Max Holloway. The Halloway loss is the most memorable for the last-second knockout. Gaethje is likely to try to keep this fight on the feet, where he should hold the advantage in boxing skills. But at the same time, you can not forget Gaethje comes from a strong wrestling background as well.
Paddy remains undefeated in his time with the UFC, dating back to his debut in 2021. He has finished 5 of his 7 opponents during that stretch, with 3 of those 5 finishes coming via submission. His most recent win came over Michael Chandler, but the level of competition here with Gaethje is another level from anyone he has faced to date. That said, Paddy seems to thrive during times when he is doubted.
Paddy is not being doubted by the sportsbooks. They have him as a healthy favorite in this matchup. It will be a battle of styles with Gaethje hoping to engage on the feet and Paddy looking to use his expert grappling and BJJ to his advantage.
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Justin Gaethje - Paddy Pimblett Key Points
- Gaethje is just 3-2 in his last 5 fights.While Gaethje is a step in class for Paddy, we believe he is ready for the test. If this was a Justin Gaethje in his prime, it could be a different story, but with him being on the tail end of his career and Paddy looking to seize an incredible opportunity, we feel strongly in backing “the baddy.” We expect Paddy to get this to the ground and use his superior jiu-jitsu to his advantage and secure a submission victory. Only Khabib and Oliveira have submitted Gaethje in his career. Paddy will use that as motivation to be #3 on that prestigious list.
- Gaethje has 2 of his last 3 losses against strong BJJ competitors.
- Pimblett is 7-0 in the UFC.
- Pimblett has submitted 3 of his last 6 opponents.
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Our Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett Prediction
While Gaethje is a step in class for Paddy, we believe he is ready for the test. If this was a Justin Gaethje in his prime, it could be a different story, but with him being on the tail end of his career and Paddy looking to seize an incredible opportunity, we feel strongly in backing “the baddy.” We expect Paddy to get this to the ground and use his superior jiu-jitsu to his advantage and secure a submission victory. Only Khabib and Oliveira have submitted Gaethje in his career. Paddy will use that as motivation to be #3 on that prestigious list.
Our prediction for Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett: Pimblett to win by submission
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
