Jesper De Jong vs Sebastian Baez Prediction & Picks - ATP Bastad Open

ATP - ATP Bastad Open

ATP 73 Netherlands
Jesper De Jong
7/16/26 08:30
ATP 56 Argentina
Sebastian Baez

Prediction:

 

Sebastian Baez to Win

+110
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 by Bradley Gibbs | in Tennis Picks

One of Thursday's clay-court matches sees Jesper De Jong and Sebastian Baez clash in Bastad, Sweden. Interestingly, both De Jong and Baez have previously finished as runners-up in Bastad, with the Dutch player doing so last season. The Argentine lost in the final of this event back in 2022. Both players have shown the ability to excel on these courts, so we should be in for an exciting match. 

As we are indeed talking about a match between two former finalists of this event, this is no easy match to call. However, if we really look at the recent efforts of the pair, then it's hard to see why Sebastian Baez should be the narrow outsider. If anything, the Argentine, who is undefeated in six clay-court matches and who beat De Jong when the pair last met, should be the narrow favorite, so while he's not, there's value to be had. 

Jesper De Jong vs Sebastian Baez Form

Jesper De Jong and Sebastian Baez Latest Matches

Jesper De Jong Latest matches
W W L W L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Jul 13, 2026 - ATP Bastad Open

Jesper De Jong
2 :  0
Vilius Gaubas

Jul 1, 2026 - ATP Wimbledon Championships

Jesper De Jong
0 :  3
Joao Fonseca

Jun 29, 2026 - ATP Wimbledon Championships

Jesper De Jong
3 :  2
Rinky Hijikata

May 31, 2026 - ATP French Open

Jesper De Jong
0 :  3
Alexander Zverev

May 29, 2026 - ATP French Open

Karen Khachanov
2 :  3
Jesper De Jong

May 27, 2026 - ATP French Open

Federico Cina
0 :  3
Jesper De Jong
Sebastian Baez Latest matches
L W L L L W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Jul 14, 2026 - ATP Bastad Open

Max Dahlin
1 :  2
Sebastian Baez

Jun 29, 2026 - ATP Wimbledon Championships

Jan-Lennard Struff
3 :  2
Sebastian Baez

May 18, 2026 - ATP Geneva Open

Sebastian Baez
0 :  2
Alex Michelsen

May 8, 2026 - ATP Italian Open

Sebastian Baez
0 :  2
Alexander Bublik

May 6, 2026 - ATP Italian Open

Jenson Brooksby
0 :  2
Sebastian Baez

Apr 23, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open

Vilius Gaubas
2 :  0
Sebastian Baez
Jesper De Jong vs Sebastian Baez Picks

Jesper De Jong - Sebastian Baez Key Points

  1. When the pair last met, Sebastián Báez came out on top.
  2. Sebastián Báez has never lost to Jesper De Jong.
  3. Sebastián Báez has now won six clay-court matches on the bounce.
  4. Sebastián Báez has won each of his six recent clay-court matches against lower-ranked players.

Our Jesper De Jong vs Sebastian Baez Prediction

Jesper De Jong did reach the final of this event last year, and he did perform as if he's got a decent chance of going deep this time around when winning his first-round match. However, he has not been handed the most friendly second-round assignment. Sebastian Baez has also previously reached the final of this event, while the Argentine has a fabulous recent record against lower-ranked players on clay, so much so that he should really be priced a little shorter here. 

Our Jesper De Jong vs Sebastian Baez Pick: Sebastian Baez to Win.

Prediction:

 

Sebastian Baez to Win

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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.