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by Erik Gibbs in Major League Soccer Picks
Inter Miami and Nashville meet in the first round of the MLS Cup Playoffs on Friday. Inter Miami ended the regular season like a team that had at last flipped the switch. Three consecutive victories to wrap it up, all at ease: 4–1 over New England, 4–0 over Atlanta, and a 5–2 smash-and-grab in Nashville on Decision Day. The big news is Lionel Messi's late push—all that was just granted with Messi being awarded MLS Player of the Month for October after scoring 10 goal contributions (5G/5A) in the last three matches, and that surge secured the Golden Boot (29 goals, 19 assists). Miami also topped 81 league goals, making it just the third team in MLS history to hit 80 or more regular-season goals. That's an avalanche.
Nashville stumbled home across the finish line, but that underestimates their season. They had just won the US Open Cup, tied at Montréal a week prior to Decision Day, then were up 2–1 at Miami at half on final weekend before it all came crashing down. Sam Surridge scored a club-record 24th league goal, Hany Mukhtar provided his 12th assist as a player became just the first in MLS history to reach at least 80 goals, 60 assists over any six-season period. They still finished sixth in the East, which was roughly somewhere they were all season in the standings.
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Inter Miami vs Nashville SC Form
Inter Miami and Nashville SC Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Oct 18, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Oct 11, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Oct 4, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 30, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 27, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 24, 2025 - Major League Soccer
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Oct 11, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Oct 4, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 30, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 20, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 16, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Aug 27, 2025 - Leagues Cup
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Oct 18, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 27, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 24, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 13, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Aug 31, 2025 - Leagues Cup
Aug 23, 2025 - Major League Soccer
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Oct 18, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Oct 4, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Oct 1, 2025 - US Open Cup
Sep 27, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 20, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 16, 2025 - US Open Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Oct 18, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 27, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 16, 2025 - US Open Cup
Aug 30, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Aug 23, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Aug 2, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Oct 4, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Oct 1, 2025 - US Open Cup
Sep 20, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 13, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Aug 17, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Aug 9, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Inter Miami against Nashville SC : Head to Head (H2H)
83 %
17 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
Oct 18, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Jul 12, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Jun 29, 2024 - Major League Soccer
Apr 20, 2024 - Major League Soccer
Mar 13, 2024 - Concachampions
Mar 7, 2024 - Concachampions
Inter Miami - Nashville SC: Form Analysis
Miami's last two home performances were statement wins. Against New England (Oct. 4), Jordi Alba and Tadeo Allende both bagged braces and Messi dealt three assists—proof this isn't a one-man band so much as a front-five with choreo. A week later, Atlanta got buried 4–0, with Messi scoring twice and assisting Alba. Those games looked repeatable, not fluky: control, wave after wave, and a back line that settled nicely with Maxi Falcón and Gonzalo Luján next to Jordi Alba.
Decision Day in Nashville told a different sort of story: Miami can take a punch now. Down 2–1 at the break in a playoff-type atmosphere, they flipped the match by cranking tempo after the hour mark—Messi's panenka-cool penalty, Baltasar Rodríguez from chaos, then the classic curler from the right. They walked out 5–2 winners and into the postseason with swagger.
Nashville's October sample is narrower but informative. At Montréal (Oct. 4), they found a late equalizer through Surridge, which tracks with their season-long calling card: they're stubborn and they hang around. Versus Miami on Decision Day, they actually looked great in transition before tiring—the Surridge/Mukhtar connection clicked again, Jacob Shaffelburg added a dagger before the break, then the legs went and the midfield got stretched. That second half fade is the worry.
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Nashville SC v Inter Miami last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Missing players
D. Ruiz
ForwardA. Obando
W. Meyer
J. Gaines
T. Washington
MidfielderM. Corcoran
J. Perez
ForwardA. Qasem
Inter Miami & Nashville SC Squad Analysis
Messi's form needs no embellishment: 29 league goals, 19 assists, Golden Boot, and his third Player of the Month this season. He ran the table down the stretch and, crucially, he's still creating at volume even when he's not scoring—10 G/As in three games is cartoonish. There was a midweek blip when he reportedly missed Tuesday's training with minor back soreness, but multiple club-adjacent reports indicated he returned to training on Wednesday. Barring a setback, he's good to go. Around him, Alba has been productive (a brace vs. Revs plus a goal vs. Atlanta), Luis Suárez continues to occupy center backs, and Baltasar Rodríguez keeps popping up with timely runs.
The official Nashville health report (last updated Oct. 18) listed OUT: Julian Gaines (thigh) and Wyatt Meyer (foot); QUESTIONABLE: Jonny Pérez (thigh), Ahmed Qasem (ankle). Miami's side of that page had OUT: Allen Obando (hamstring) and David Ruiz (hamstring), with Santi Morales QUESTIONABLE (knee). No new red flags have been posted since.
Form-wise, Nashville's stars are carrying weight. Surridge set the single-season club scoring record (24) and finished hot; Mukhtar's production remains elite and his ball-progression numbers were on display in that Decision Day first half. Jacob Shaffelburg's directness is still a weapon on tired legs. The catch: they've needed multiple guys to play at “8/10” just to keep pace with the top attacks, and if the midfield duels tilt against them—especially when Busquets and Rodrigo De Paul pin you in—it can snowball.
Most goals and assists
Inter Miami
Nashville SC
L. Messi
(35 Goals)
S. Surridge
(24 Goals)
L. Messi
(18 Assists)
H. Mukhtar
(8 Assists)
Inter Miami - Nashville SC Key Points
- Inter Miami are 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games
- Nashville are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
- The Over is 3-2 in Inter Miami's last 5 games
- The Over is 4-1 in Nashville's last 5 games
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Our Inter Miami vs Nashville SC Prediction
This series is a clash of identities. Miami wants the game in your half, constantly. They'll stack the left with Alba underlapping and Messi drifting into that right half-space to pick passes or curl shots. When they lose it, they counter-press just enough to force a panicky clearance, then start again. Nashville are at their best when they turn that pressure into runway—win the first ball, clip the second to Surridge, let Mukhtar spin into space, get Shaffelburg or Muyl streaking. If they can make it ragged, they've got a puncher's chance.
Two tactical pressure points to watch. First, set pieces. Walker Zimmerman still changes games in the air, and Miami have had moments this season where their near-post zoning gets static. Second, Alba's lane. He's a plus in possession and an end-product machine right now, but Nashville will try to drop a runner behind him and ask Messi to chase—they won't. That forces Busquets or a center back to cover grass, which is where Nashville can pry the door.
Even with those caveats, it's hard to pick against recent form and the venue. Miami just put five on this defense in that same week, and they've been ruthless at Chase Stadium. The wild card—Messi's back—looks like it's resolved, and his rhythm with Alba/Suárez is purring. Nashville will have their moments (they always do), and Surridge is a handful in the box, but over 90 minutes the shot-quality gap should tell. Our prediction for Inter Miami vs. Nashville: Under 3.5 goals.
Inter Miami vs Nashville SC - Other Interesting Picks
Messi to score 2+ goals
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