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by Lou Aguila in NBA Picks
The Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder are locked for a crucial Game 5 on Monday at Paycom Center with the winner taking a 3-2 series lead in their best-of-seven NBA Finals series.
The Thunder leveled the series at 2-2 behind a ferocious fourth quarter rally powered by none other than their MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. OKC’s star scored 15 in the last 4:38 minutes of the match to complete his team's comeback from a 10-point, second-half deficit. Gilgeous-Alexander once again led his team in scoring with 35, but he got plenty of support from guys like Alex Caruso (20 points), Jalen Williams (27 points), and Chet Holmgren, who toughened up with 14 points and 15 rebounds.
The Pacers blew a chance to seize a commanding 3-1 lead after letting the Thunder chip away at their lead in the payoff period. Pascal Siakam posted 20 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists and 5 steals, while Tyrese Haliburton recorded 18 points and 7 assists. Benedict Mathurin, who led Indiana’s bench mob in Game 3 with 27 points, finished with 8 points on 1 for 2 FG shooting. Obi Toppin chipped in 17 off the bench for Indiana.
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Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Form
Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder Latest Matches
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Indiana Pacers against Oklahoma City Thunder : Head to Head (H2H)
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Indiana Pacers - Oklahoma City Thunder: Form Analysis
The 2025 NBA Finals is tied at 2-2 after neither team was able to post consecutive wins in this series. The Pacers took Game 1, 111-110, after Tyrese Haliburton’s game-winning jumper capped a furious comeback run late in the fourth quarter of that game. OKC flexed its muscle in Game 2, 123-111, but the Pacers responded with a convincing win, 116-107, in Game 3 in Indianapolis. Indiana had a double-digit lead in the second half but could not hang onto the lead as the Thunder delivered their own version of a comeback in Game 4, 111-104.
The Thunder are averaging 112.8 points per game on 45.4 FG% after four games in the series. The Pacers are scoring 109.5 points per game on 46.8 FG%.
The rebounding battle is tight with the Thunder averaging 41.8 rebounds per game, while the Pacers are grabbing 40.0 boards per game in 4 games. The Pacers are forcing the Thunder to commit 14 turnovers per contest, while the Thunder have smothered Indiana to 17.5 miscues per ballgame.
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Indiana Pacers & Oklahoma City Thunder Squad Analysis
Apart from Isaiah Jackson and Jarace Walker, the Thunder’s core is healthy and ready to roll in Game 4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the series with 32.8 points per game. All-Star forward Jalen Williams is averaging 22.3 points per game while Alex Caruso (14.8 ppg) and Chet Holmgren (13.8 ppg) are the other two Thunder players in double-digit scoring averages.
It looks like Tyrese Haliburton’s leg injury is not much of a concern for now after the Pacers star guard recorded 18 points and 7 assists in Game 4.
Haliburton is on pace to win the NBA Finals MVP if Indiana wins the title, averaging 17.8 points on 50 FG% and 7.5 assists per game. Pascal Siakam, the East Finals MVP, is posting 18.8 points, 7.8 points, and 4.0 assists per game, while Benedict Mathurin (13.5 ppg), Myles Turner (13.0 ppg), Obi Toppin (11.3 ppg) and Andrew Nembhard (10.3 ppg) are also putting up double-digit scoring in this series.
Indiana Pacers - Oklahoma City Thunder Key Points
- Indiana is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games.
- Indiana is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games.
- Oklahoma City is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games played in June.
- Oklahoma City is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games.
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Our Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction
Rick Carlisle and the Pacers are bracing for a raucous crowd at Paycom Center in Game 5. I still believe the Pacers can win this series despite blowing the chance to secure a 3-1 lead in Game 4. But they will need to silence the home crowd from the get-go to get themselves a chance to steal another road win in OKC. Carlisle is a master of adjustment, and I expect him to start employing new strategies to contain the Thunder’s top star, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 30 points in this series. Watch out for a bounce-back win from Benedict Mathurin after scoring 8 points following his 27-point explosion in Game 3. The Pacers’ bench is deep, and anyone can make an impact. However, I still believe that if the Pacers were to win this series, they would need two more huge games from Mathurin off the bench to outgun the Thunder and capture the title.
Our betting prediction for the Indiana Pacers vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder: the Pacers will win.
Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder - Other Interesting Picks
The Pacers +9.5 Points
The Thunder are the heavy favorites to win Game 5, with bookmakers listing them at -9.5 games. The Thunder were a dominant team against him in the regular season, averaging double-digit win margins at the Paycom Center. The NBA Finals are a different story, though. I think the Pacers have already proven themselves as a worthy foe to the Thunder for the championship. They could have been up 3-1 now if they had just held on to their significant lead in Game 4. The Pacers’ length, depth, and athleticism are matching up with the Thunder’s youth and tenacity. In the battle between the two coaches, I still believe Carlisle has done a better job in terms of making adjustments and putting his players in matchups where they are most likely to succeed. In Game 5, I expect Carlisle’s fingerprints to be all over their road win over the Thunder.
Our betting prediction for the OKC Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers: the Pacers +9.5 points
Pascal Siakam 35+ from (Points + Rebounds + Assists).
I am counting on Pascal Siakam to put in great numbers across the stats sheet. Haliburton might be the heart of the Pacers, but Siakam is the engine of this team that has relied heavily from him in terms of point production, rebounding and playmaking. Siakam is averaging 18.8 points, 7.8 points, and 4.0 assists per game in the NBA finals, and his ability to put up 20-10 game silently has made him an attractive pick on player props combo markets.
Our betting prediction for the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. the Indiana Pacers: Pascal Siakam 35+ from (Points + Rebounds + Assists).
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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