Indiana Hoosiers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction & Picks - NCAA
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by Travis Pulver in NCAA Picks
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish get to host the first college football playoff game in the CFP’s new 12-team bracket. Another team from the Hoosier State is their opponent for this historic game, a school just a couple hundred miles away in Indiana. The action gets underway on Friday, Dec. 20, at 8 p.m. ET. ABC will broadcast the game. It will be just the 29th meeting between these two institutions since they first played in 1898 and the first since 1991. Not surprisingly, Notre Dame has dominated the traditional basketball school (Indiana) 23-5-1. But with the arrival of new head coach Curt Cignetti this season, something crazy has happened—Indiana has morphed into a football school.
While the strength of their schedule is questionable, the Hoosiers have been dominant on both sides of the ball this season (No. 2 scoring offense in the country—40.3 ppg; No. 6 defense—15.7 ppg allowed). However, Notre Dame posted similar stats this season, ranking just behind Indiana in scoring offense (No. 3- 39.8) and slightly better on defense (No. 3—13.6 ppg allowed). Notre Dame will likely lean hard on their run game (No. 11—224.8 ypg) to keep the IU offense and quarterback Kurtis Rourke off the field. Indiana may try to lean on Rourke and the passing game to get out to an early lead on the Fighting Irish and hopefully force them to abandon the run.
But that will not be easy against Notre Dame’s No. 3 pass defense.
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Indiana Hoosiers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Form
Indiana Hoosiers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish Latest Matches
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Indiana Hoosiers - Notre Dame Fighting Irish Key Points
- Indiana opened as an 8.5-point underdog, but the line has since shifted to +7.5 or +7, depending on the sportsbook.
- Only 14% of moneyline tickets are on Indiana, but 91% of the moneyline handle is on the Hoosiers.
- Bets on the spread are practically split, with 49% of tickets on Indiana and 51% for Notre Dame, but the handle is split 50/50.
- Under Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame is 13-3 SU when favored at home and 8-7-1 ATS.
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Our Indiana Hoosiers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction
Indiana has to make the most out of the most efficient passing game in the country. They need to push the pace, wear the Notre Dame defense down, and score with almost every if not every, possession. They need to build an early lead in order to force Notre Dame to pass more than they want to. Notre Dame passes well enough to complement its run game but not well enough to lean on it. Indiana had the No. 1 run defense in the Big Ten and only allowed 100+ yards four times. If they can slow the Notre Dame run game down, Indiana can control the pace and effectively the outcome of the game.
However, as much as I want to say the Hoosiers will win, the better bet is to count on this being a competitive game decided by one score.
Our Indiana vs. Notre Dame Prediction: Indiana +7.5
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