Iowa St. vs Illinois Prediction & Picks - NCAA Basketball
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by Dan Angell in NCAA Basketball Picks
The Iowa State Cyclones (29-7 SU, 24-10-2 ATS) square off against the Illinois Fighting Illini (28-8 SU, 21-13-2 ATS) in a regional semifinal matchup. This game is a case of strength on strength, as Iowa State brings the nation's most efficient defense against the country's most efficient offense in Illinois. The Illini do a wonderful job of getting good shots inside because of Coleman Hawkins, but they've yet to face a defense as aggressive and disciplined as Iowa State.
The Cyclones lead the nation in forcing turnovers and excel at not letting their opponents end their possessions with a shot. When they do give up a shot, it's usually not a great one, and Iowa State doesn't allow a lot of second chances either. At 61.3 points per game, the Cyclones make opponents earn everything they get.
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Iowa St. - Illinois Key Points
- Iowa State is 1-5 SU all-time in the regional semifinal of the NCAA Tournament.
- Illinois has played to the over in all five of its postseason games.
- Illinois is 4-1 ATS in postseason play.
- Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in postseason play.
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Our Iowa St. vs Illinois Prediction
The key to this game might be the other end of the floor, where Iowa State does have an advantage. Unlike the Cyclones, the Illini don't do a great job locking down 3-point shooters. Tamin Lipsey and Curtis Jones are both accurate shooters from distance for Iowa State, and Illinois will give up some open looks. The Illini also have a history of turning the ball over at inopportune times. In a loss to Penn State, Illinois managed to fritter away a double-digit lead because it committed 18 turnovers.
Ball handling like that is devastating against Iowa State. Illinois' decision making and ball-handling have improved since then, but the Illini also haven't seen this kind of pressure. Our prediction for Illinois vs. Iowa State is Iowa State -1.5.
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