UCONN vs Illinois Prediction & Picks - NCAA Basketball
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by Matt Lowrimore | in NCAA Basketball Picks
The first Final Four game on Saturday night will see the #3-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini (28-8) from the South Region take on the #2-seeded UConn Huskies (33-5) from the East Region. Let's take a look at the match statistics and predictions for this game between the Fighting Illini and the Huskies.
Illinois breezed through the Elite Eight, beating the Iowa Hawkeyes by a score of 71-59. The Fighting Illini have now won all four of their tournament games by double-digits, and have done so with their efficient offense and stifling defense. Even with a defense that is allowing less than 60 points per game on average, points could be flowing in this matchup, given what is at stake.
As for UConn, they may feel lucky to be at this stage, as they defeated the Duke Blue Devils in the Elite Eight thanks to an unlikely forced turnover in the final seconds and a go-ahead three-pointer with less than a second remaining. That said, the Huskies did come back from 19 points, showing their resilience and ability to score in rapid succession.
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UCONN vs Illinois Form
UCONN and Illinois Latest Matches
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UCONN against Illinois : Head to Head (H2H)
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UCONN - Illinois: Form Analysis
Illinois has really not been challenged too much during the tournament, as shown by its results so far. The Fighting Illini beat Penn in the first round by 35, VCU in the second round by 21, Houston in the Sweet 16 by 10, and Iowa in the Elite Eight by 12. Illinois was challenged early in a few of these games, but ultimately, never had to sweat out any of them.
“Illinois has won its tournament games by an average margin of 19.5 points per game.”
UConn, on the other hand, has had a much tougher path. The Huskies beat Furman in the first round by 11, UCLA in the second round by 16, Michigan State in the Sweet 16 by 4, and Duke in the Elite Eight by 1. Given these results, UConn has won its tournament games by an average margin of 8.0 points per game and has had at least two close calls against Michigan State and Duke.
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UCONN & Illinois Squad Analysis
Without a doubt, Illinois' top player in the tournament has been freshman guard Keaton Wagler. Through four games, Wagler is averaging 17.5 points per game, which includes 18 in the first round, 14 in the second round, 13 in the Sweet 16, and 25 in the Elite Eight. Illinois' other top contributor includes David Mirkovic and Andrej Stojakovic, both of whom are averaging 14+ points per game.
“Illinois has four players averaging 10+ points per game through the first four games of the NCAA Tournament.”
UConn's best player in the tournament has been Tarris Reed Jr. He is averaging 21.8 points per game in the tournament, which includes 31 points in the first round, 10 points in the second round, 20 points in the Sweet 16, and 26 points in the Elite Eight. In total, the Huskies have three players averaging 10+ points in four tournament games, which also includes Alex Karaban and Braylon Mullins.
UCONN - Illinois Key Points
- Illinois is averaging 79.3 points per game in the tournament
- Illinois is allowing 59.8 points per game in the tournament
- UConn is averaging 73.8 points per game in the tournament
- UConn is allowing 65.8 points per game in the tournament
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Our UCONN vs Illinois Prediction
Illinois is a slight favorite to reach the Final; however, the over looks to be the best betting option. The Fighting Illini have been extremely efficient offensively in the tournament, averaging 79.3 points per game.
UConn, on the other hand, has had similar offensive production, averaging 73.8 points per game. Both defenses have admittedly been lights out, each allowing less than 65 points per game. That said, the stakes in this game are much too high to believe we will see a game in the low to mid 60s. For that reason, our Illinois Fighting Illini vs UConn Huskies prediction is: Over 139.5 Total Points.UCONN vs Illinois - Other Interesting Picks
Illinois Fighting Illini ML
Illinois is the slight favorite in this game; however, they still look to be the best betting option. As mentioned previously, the Fighting Illini's run to the Final Four has been a breeze, which simply shows how dominant a team they can be.
UConn, on the other hand, has been somewhat fortunate to reach the Final Four, especially with how Duke played in the final minutes of their Elite Eight game. It is highly unlikely that Illinois' dominance will continue against UConn; however, they still look to be the better overall team, especially defensively. For that reason, backing Illinois to win will be our play.
Alex Karaban to score 13+ Points
Our third pick for this Final Four game will target Alex Karaban, from the UConn Huskies, to score at least 13+ points.
Karaban has been a major factor for the Huskies during their tournament run and is averaging 17.8 points per game. He has scored at least 13 points in three of the four games in the tournament, only failing to score 13+ in the Elite Eight game against Duke.
Simply put, Karaban's presence in the paint is crucial for the Huskies. For UConn to advance, he will need to be at his best, and that is rebounding and generating points near the basket.
UCONN vs Illinois match : Frequently asked questions
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