Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje Prediction & Picks - UFC Freedom 250
UFC - UFC Freedom 250
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by Stephen Abiola | in UFC Picks
Ilia Topuria (17-0-0) and Justin Gaethje (27-5-0) will meet in the UFC Lightweight division on Sunday. Topuria will step into the Octagon as the heavy -560 betting favorite as he looks to extend his winning streak in the UFC. The Georgian fighter joined the UFC in October 2020 and has since won all nine of his assignments, including a title win over Alexander Volkanovski. This will be his third title defense match since winning the championship in February 2024.
Justin Gaethje, on the other hand, will be keen to snatch the undisputed title from Topuria and extend his two-fight winning run. He prevailed over Paddy Pumblett at UFC 324 to claim the UFC interim lightweight championship. The 37-year-old American applied relentless pressure and scored several knockdowns to get his second decision win since November 2021. He’ll be keen to get a more convincing win on Sunday, although the odds are pretty long.
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Ilia Topuria - Justin Gaethje Key Points
- Ilia Topuria won via KO/TKO in six of his last eight fights.
- The total rounds went over 1.5 in five of the last six Ilia Topura bouts.
- The fight was decided via KO/TKO in two of the last four Justin Gaethje bouts.
- The total rounds went over 1.5 in the last five Justin Gaethje bouts.
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Our Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje Prediction
Justin Gaethje will be fighting to hand Topuria his first defeat in his professional MMA career. He has better striking numbers, averaging 6.48 significant strikes per minute with an impressive success rate of 58%. He’ll know that his only hope of winning is applying relentless pressure and picking his spots efficiently. However, Topuria knows how to defend himself, averaging a significant strike defense rate of 64%. His composure and striking accuracy should give him an edge against Gaethje's chaotic style. We expect him to find the best possible shot to take out Gaethje rather than engage in wild exchanges. Topuria should win via KO/TKO.
Our prediction for Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje: Over 1.5 rounds.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
