Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction & Picks - NFL

Prediction published on 1/12/26, 4:51 PM  by Erik Gibbs in NFL Picks

The AFC Wild Card matchup between the Houston Texans and the Pittsburgh Steelers brings together two teams heading in very different directions, even if their records suggest a closer fight on paper. Houston enters Monday night with a 12-5 regular season and one of the hottest stretches in the league, while Pittsburgh arrives at 10-7 after grinding its way through a streaky campaign.

The Texans are no strangers to postseason football recently. After winning an AFC Wild Card game last year, they are back again and arguably far more dangerous. Houston stumbled early in the season, looking inconsistent and at times overwhelmed. That version of the Texans feels like a distant memory now. Since early November, they have rattled off nine consecutive wins, turning themselves into the most complete team in football over the second half of the year. Their last loss came on November 2 against Denver, and since then they have beaten quality opponents, including Buffalo, during this dominant run.

What separates Houston from most playoff teams is how overwhelming its defense has become. The Texans finished first in total defense and second in scoring defense, and that dominance shows up on film every week. They pressure quarterbacks, close passing lanes, and tackle extremely well in space. In playoff football, where possessions are limited and mistakes are magnified, that kind of defensive control is often decisive.