Gaston Bolanos vs Michael Aswell Jr. Prediction & Picks - UFC Fight Night
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by Stephen Abiola in UFC Picks
Gaston Bolancos (8-5-0) and Michael Aswell Jr. (11-4-0) will meet in the UFC Featherweight division on Saturday night in Las Vegas. Balancos will be fighting to improve his 2-2 record since joining the franchise in April 2023. His last fight was in May 2025, which he lost to Quang Le in Round 2 via a rear-neck choke. Still, the former Muay Thai world champion is among the most dangerous finishers in the division, coming into this fight with a 6-1 KO/TKO record.
Michael Aswell, on the other side of the Octagon, is also a dangerous finisher with a 6-0 KO/TKO record. The American has endured a slow start to his UFC career, going 1-2 since joining the franchise in August 2024. He failed to build on his KO win over Lucas Almeida after losing to Luke Riley in March this year via a unanimous decision. The 25-year-old will look to stabilize his UFC career with a critical win this weekend. He’s the -480 betting favorite to win.
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Gaston Bolanos - Michael Aswell Jr. Key Points
- The total rounds went over 2.5 in seven of the last nine Michael Aswell bouts.
- The fight went the distance in four of Michael Aswell's last five bouts.
- The total rounds went over 2.5 in three of the last six Gaston Bolancos bouts.
- The fight was decided by decision in eight of Michael Aswell's last 12 bouts.
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Our Gaston Bolanos vs Michael Aswell Jr. Prediction
Michael Aswell has the more convincing numbers in this fight. First, he has age on his side, being five years younger than Bolancos. His youthful energy could decide this fight if it goes past two rounds. On top of that, he’s an aggressive striker, averaging 7.79 significant strikes landed per minute. However, his 42% success rate shows a fighter still lacking efficiency. The American has also absorbed 7.43 significant strikes per minute with a striking defense rate of 51%. With these numbers in mind, we expect the experienced Bolancos to look to control the range and wear down his opponent. But overall, Aswell’s relentless forward pressure should give him an edge over Bolancos’ superior fight IQ. We’re backing Aswell to get a decision win.
Our prediction for Gaston Bolancos vs Michael Aswell Jr.: Over 2.5 rounds to hit.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
