ATP - ATP Cincinnati Open
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by Lou Aguila in ATP Cincinnati Open Picks
Can Frances Tiafoe stage another deep run in Cincinnati?
Frances Tiafoe of the United States opened as a +110 moneyline underdog ahead of his fourth-round matchup with Holger Rune of Denmark at the 2025 Cincinnati Open.
After getting modest results in Washington (quarterfinals) and Toronto (fourth round), Tiafoe is aiming for a better campaign at Cincinnati, where he was a finalist a year ago. So far, Tiafoe is looking like a real contender, dispatching Roberto Carballes Baena 6-4 6-3 and Ugo Humbert 6-4 6-4 in straight sets. Tiafoe is 11-7 on the hard court in 2025 and carries a 59 percent win rate on the surface in his career.
Rune powered past Alex Michelsen of the United States 7-6, 6-3 to reach the round of 16. The Dane conceded only one service break after capturing 80 percent of his first serves and drilling 9 aces. He also broke Michelsen twice by winning 22 return points. Ranked No.7 in the world, Rune is 14-7 on the hard court this year.
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Frances Tiafoe vs Holger Rune Form
Frances Tiafoe and Holger Rune Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Aug 11, 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 9, 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 3, 2025 - ATP Toronto
Aug 1, 2025 - ATP Toronto
Jul 30, 2025 - ATP Toronto
Jul 25, 2025 - ATP Washington Citi Open
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Aug 11, 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 9, 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 2, 2025 - ATP Toronto
Jul 31, 2025 - ATP Toronto
Jul 29, 2025 - ATP Toronto
Jun 30, 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Frances Tiafoe against Holger Rune : Head to Head (H2H)
Aug 18, 2024 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Frances Tiafoe - Holger Rune Key Points
- Frances Tiafoe defeated Ugo Humbert 6-4, 6-4 in the third round of the 2025 Cincinnati Open.
- Frances Tiafoe is 11-7 on the hard court in 2025.
- Holger Rune defeated Alex Michelsen 7-6, 6-3 in the third round of the 2025 Cincinnati Open.
- Holger Rune is 14-7 on the hard court in 2025.
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Our Frances Tiafoe vs Holger Rune Prediction
My money is on Frances Tiafoe in this intriguing round-of-16 matchup with Holger Rune. A rematch of last year’s semifinals at the same tournament, Tiafoe edged the Dane 4-6, 6-1, 7-6 to arrange a championship match with Jannik Sinner.
Both players have yet to drop a set in this tourney, demonstrating their impeccable form heading into their high-stakes match. Rune has always been a tough opponent across all surfaces, but he becomes more dangerous when he gets into his zone.
However, Tiafoe comes as an enticing moneyline option at +110 because of his history of success in this event. He has also created and converted more breakpoint chances (9 of 29) than Rune, who has won 5 of 11 breakpoints. This might be a risky bet, but I am going all in on Tiafoe for a straight-up win.
Our betting prediction for Frances Tiafoe vs. Holger Rune: Frances Tiafoe will win.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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