USA - Major League Soccer
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by Erik Gibbs in Major League Soccer Picks
This Monday, the Audi 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs commence with a fixture that was, perhaps, preordained. The bracket has delivered the most volatile and compelling matchup in the Eastern Conference: a Best-of-3 series between the #2 seed, FC Cincinnati, and their intrastate rivals, the #7 Columbus Crew.
For the league, it is a marquee first-round pairing. For the state of Ohio, it is the resumption of "Hell Is Real," a derby that has recently become defined by high-stakes postseason drama.
The narrative writes itself, and it is centered squarely on redemption. FC Cincinnati enters this postseason as the clear favorite, a conference powerhouse finishing in blistering form. Yet, they carry the psychological weight of 2023. That season, Cincinnati, the Supporters' Shield winners, were eliminated on their home pitch in the Eastern Conference Final by this same Columbus side—a match that saw the Crew erase a 2-0 deficit to win in extra time en route to lifting the MLS Cup.
That memory still lingers at TQL Stadium. It was compounded by a regular-season meeting this past July, where Cincinnati again established a 2-0 lead at home, only to collapse and concede four unanswered goals in a stunning 4-2 loss.
Now, the two clubs arrive at this flashpoint from opposite trajectories.
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FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew Form
FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Oct 18, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Oct 4, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 28, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 20, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 13, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Aug 30, 2025 - Major League Soccer
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Oct 18, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 28, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 13, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Aug 30, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Aug 23, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Aug 10, 2025 - Major League Soccer
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Oct 4, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 20, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Aug 16, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Jul 31, 2025 - Leagues Cup
Jul 26, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Jul 19, 2025 - Major League Soccer
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Oct 18, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Oct 4, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 27, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 20, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 17, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 13, 2025 - Major League Soccer
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Oct 18, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 20, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Aug 23, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Aug 5, 2025 - Leagues Cup
Aug 1, 2025 - Leagues Cup
Jul 25, 2025 - Major League Soccer
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Oct 4, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 27, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 17, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 13, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Aug 30, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Aug 16, 2025 - Major League Soccer
FC Cincinnati against Columbus Crew : Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
Jul 12, 2025 - Major League Soccer
May 17, 2025 - Major League Soccer
Sep 14, 2024 - Major League Soccer
May 11, 2024 - Major League Soccer
Dec 2, 2023 - Major League Soccer
Aug 20, 2023 - Major League Soccer
Columbus Crew v FC Cincinnati last Lineups
Formation : 5 - 3 - 2
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Missing players
M. Miazga
B. Smith
M. Farsi
ForwardW. Abou Ali
D. Rossi
Most goals and assists
FC Cincinnati
Columbus Crew
Evander
(20 Goals)
D. Rossi
(17 Goals)
Evander
(14 Assists)
D. Gazdag
(6 Assists)
FC Cincinnati - Columbus Crew Key Points
- Columbus Crew are 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games
- FC Cincinnati are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
- The Over is 2-3 in Columbus Crew's last 5 games
- The Over is 2-3 in FC Cincinnati's last 5 games
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Our FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew Prediction
Pat Noonan's Cincinnati squad is surging. They are organized, potent, and—most importantly—getting healthy. The return of midfield engine Obinna Nwobodo has been a significant boost, but the most critical development is the return of 15-goal striker Kévin Denkey from suspension. He rejoins an attack marshaled by MVP finalist Evander, whose 18 goals and 15 assists established him as one of the league's elite playmakers. While the defense remains without the services of Matt Miazga, the team is entering the playoffs with its offensive core intact and in form.
Conversely, the Columbus Crew are beleaguered. Wilfried Nancy's squad secured their playoff berth on the final day of the season, a necessary victory that masked a difficult stretch of just two wins in their final ten matches. Their primary concern is a depleted attack. Key contributors Wessam Abou Ali and Mohamed Farsi are unavailable due to injury. All eyes are on the status of 16-goal forward Diego Rossi, who faces a late fitness test for a thigh strain. His absence would place an enormous burden on the rest of the Crew's roster.
On paper, this is Cincinnati's series to lose. They have home-field advantage, superior form, and better health. But playoff derbies are rarely decided on paper. Columbus operates with the quiet confidence of a team that has already proven, twice, that they can dismantle their rivals in their own fortress. For Cincinnati to advance, they must not only defeat the Crew; they must conquer the ghosts of their own past. Our prediction for FC Cincinnati vs. Columbus Crew: FC Cincinnati to win.
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