WTA - WTA Cincinnati Open
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by Lou Aguila in Tennis Picks
Elena Rybakina of Kazakhstan will go head-to-head with Iga Swiatek of Poland in an explosive semifinal showdown at the 2025 Cincinnati Open on Sunday.
Rybakina booked her ticket to the semifinals after posting a dominant win over the world’s No.1 and defending US Open champion, Aryna Sabalenka, 6-1, 6-4. Rybakina pulled off the convincing win by winning all her serves and converting 3 out of 6 breakpoint chances against Sabalenka. The former Wimbledon Open champion also drilled 11 aces in the match. With the victory, Rybakina has now reached the semifinal of her last three hard-court tournaments after also making it in the final four of the Mubadala Citi Open and the Canadian Open.
Swiatek is also through to the semifinals at Cincinnati following a surgical win over Anna Kalinskaya 6-3 6-4. The reigning Wimbledon Open champion needed only one hour and 34 minutes to dispatch the previously streaking Russian. Swiatek kept Kalinskaya at bay throughout the match by capturing 84 percent of her first serves and seizing three breakpoints on just 14 return points.
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Elena Rybakina vs Iga Swiatek Form
Elena Rybakina and Iga Swiatek Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Aug 15, 2025 - WTA Cincinnati Open
Aug 13, 2025 - WTA Cincinnati Open
Aug 11, 2025 - WTA Cincinnati Open
Aug 9, 2025 - WTA Cincinnati Open
Aug 6, 2025 - WTA National Bank Open
Aug 4, 2025 - WTA National Bank Open
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Aug 15, 2025 - WTA Cincinnati Open
Aug 13, 2025 - WTA Cincinnati Open
Aug 12, 2025 - WTA Cincinnati Open
Aug 9, 2025 - WTA Cincinnati Open
Aug 3, 2025 - WTA National Bank Open
Aug 1, 2025 - WTA National Bank Open
Elena Rybakina against Iga Swiatek : Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
83 %
Jun 1, 2025 - WTA French Open
Feb 13, 2025 - WTA Doha
Jan 3, 2025 - United Cup
Dec 21, 2024 - World Tennis League, Women Singles
Apr 20, 2024 - WTA Stuttgart Open
Feb 17, 2024 - WTA Doha
Elena Rybakina - Iga Swiatek Key Points
- Iga Swiatek defeated Anna Kalinskaya 6-3, 6-4 in the quarterfinal of the 2025 Cincinnati Open.
- Iga Swiatek is 5-4 against Elena Rybakina head-to-head.
- Elena Rybakina defeated Aryna Sabalenka 6-1, 6-4 in the quarterfinal of the 2025 Cincinnati Open.
- Elena Rybakina is 10-3 in her last 13 matches.
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Our Elena Rybakina vs Iga Swiatek Prediction
Iga Swiatek has beaten Elena Rybakina in 5 of their 9 head-to-head matches, including the last three. Her dominance in the recent matches against the Kazakh has made Swiatek a -172 favorite in her semifinal showdown with Rybakina, while Matchstats has also put the Pole’s winning probability at 61 percent.
The numbers and trends bode well for Swiatek, but Rybakina shouldn’t be taken lightly, especially after pulling off a confidence-boosting win over Sabalenka. Swiatek has been stellar in Cincinnati, beating her first three opponents with relative ease. On the other hand, Rybakina has survived three consecutive three-set matches before her surgical win over Sabalenka. It might not be a great look on paper, yet Rybakina has showcased quality in dispatching Renata Zarazua, Elise Mertens, and Madison Keys in three sets. It can also be argued that Rybakina has conquered a stronger set of opponents in this tournament than the players Swiatek has faced along the way. The highest-ranking player Swiatek played in this competition was the 34th-ranked Kalinskaya.
Rybakina stands as an intriguing pick to cover +3.5 games because of her excellent form that helped her eliminate two Grand Slam champions back-to-back. The stats guys may be picking Swiatek due to her recent head-to-head win streak against the Kazakh, but it’s also hard to ignore Rybakina’s body of work in this tournament.
Our betting prediction for Elena Rybakina vs. Iga Swiatek: Elena Rybakina +3.5 Games
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