Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens Prediction & Picks - WTA Australian Open
WTA - WTA Australian Open
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by Lou Aguila | in Tennis Picks
Elena Rybakina of Kazakhstan is listed as a 4.5-game favorite against Elise Mertens of Belgium in the fourth round of the 2026 Australian Open on Monday morning.
Recommended Pick: Elise Mertens +4.5 Games
Potential Payout:+115
Current Form:
Rybakina has steamrolled over her first three opponents in Melbourne, blasting Kaja Juvan of Slovenia 6-4, 6-3, Varvara Gracheva of France 7-5, 6-2, and Tereza Valentova 6-2, 6-3. Rybakina is averaging 4.7 aces per match and winning 73.9 percent of her first serves at the Australian Open, while dealing a lot of damage as a returner with a 75 percent break-point success rate.
Mertens improved her record to 6-1 in the season after picking up another dominant straight-set win over 19-year-old Nikola Bartunkova 6-0, 6-4. Mertens overpowered her younger opponent with her services, firing 8 aces and capturing 79 percent of her first serves to hold all except one service game. She also broke five times behind 31 return points.
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Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens Form
Elena Rybakina and Elise Mertens Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Jan 24, 2026 - WTA Australian Open
Jan 22, 2026 - WTA Australian Open
Jan 19, 2026 - WTA Australian Open
Jan 8, 2026 - WTA Brisbane
Jan 7, 2026 - WTA Brisbane
Jan 6, 2026 - WTA Brisbane
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Jan 23, 2026 - WTA Australian Open
Jan 21, 2026 - WTA Australian Open
Jan 19, 2026 - WTA Australian Open
Jan 9, 2026 - United Cup
Jan 8, 2026 - United Cup
Jan 5, 2026 - United Cup
Elena Rybakina against Elise Mertens : Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
Aug 11, 2025 - WTA Cincinnati Open
Jun 1, 2024 - WTA French Open
Jan 4, 2024 - WTA Brisbane
Mar 27, 2023 - WTA Miami
Elena Rybakina - Elise Mertens Key Points
- Elise Mertens is averaging 5 aces per match at the 2026 Australian Open.
- Elise Mertens has converted 66 percent of her breakpoint chances at the 2026 Australian Open.
- Elena Rybakina has converted 75 percent of her breakpoint chances at the 2026 Australian Open.
- Elena Rybakina is 5-1 vs. Elise Mertens head-to-head.
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Our Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Elena Rybakina weathers Elise Mertens’ storm 6-3, 4-6., 7-5 to advance to the quarterfinals.
Reason: Rybakina is 6-1 vs. Mertens on paper, but the last time they played, the Belgian took her to limit 4-6, 6-3, 7-5 at the 2025 Cincinnati Open. This is an indication that Mertens is slowly figuring out Rybakina’s game. I would not be surprised if Mertens actually pulls off an upset here, given how well she’s playing in this tournament. However, I just can’t rule out Rybakina in this type of situation. She is a former Grand Slam champion for a reason, and I feel that championship pedigree will be the difference maker in this latest faceoff with Mertens.
Our betting prediction for Elena Rybakina vs. Elise Mertens: Elise Mertens +4.5 Games
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