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by Lou Aguila in MLB Picks
The Cleveland Guardians and the Detroit Tigers open their American League wild card series on Tuesday at Progressive Field.
The Guardians, who clinched the AL Central title on the final day of the regular-season, are +138 home underdogs in this series opener or potential profit of $138 for every $100 bet.
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The Guardians will try to draw first blood at home against none other than the very team they defeated for the AL Central title. Cleveland finished the season with a .226/.296/.373 split, which are among the worst batting numbers in the MLB. However, the Guardians earned a bulk of their 88 wins this season with their elite pitching, posting the fourth-best ERA in the regular-season at 3.70.
The Tigers get an opportunity to get back at the Guardians after a September meltdown almost cost them a postseason spot. Detroit thought it had their AL Central title in the bag after building a double-digit game lead on the Guardians in August. However, the Tigers experienced an unbelievable meltdown in the final month of the regular-season, where they went 7-17. The Tigers managed to steal a game in the final series against the Red Sox to secure the last wild card spot despite finishing with a similar 87-75 record as the Houston Astros. Detroit won their series against the Astros 4-2 to earn the tiebreaker.
Starting Pitchers Matchup:
Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal (13-6, 2.21 ERA) vs. Guardians RHP Gavin Williams (12-5, 3.06 ERA).
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Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Form
Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians Latest Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
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0/6 (0%)
6/6 (100%)
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2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Sep 28, 2025 - MLB
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Sep 28, 2025 - MLB
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5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
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Detroit Tigers against Cleveland Guardians : Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
83 %
Sep 25, 2025 - MLB
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Detroit Tigers - Cleveland Guardians Key Points
- Detroit is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games against an opponent in the American League.
- Detroit is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games.
- Cleveland is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games.
- Cleveland is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home.
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Our Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction
The Guardians are 5-1 in their last 6 games against the Tigers. They are also 8-2 in their last 10 home games, of which two wins came at the expense of Detroit.
Gavin Williams enters the postseason with an impeccable form, going 5-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his last five starts. In three starts against the Tigers this season, Williams has allowed only two earned runs while averaging 9.7 strikeouts over 5.2 innings per game.
Tarik Skubal also boasts an elite 1.84 ERA across his last five starts. However, Skubal absorbed the L in his last two starts against the Guardians despite conceding only one run in each game. Averaging 2.2 runs per game in the final five-game stretch of their regular-season campaign, the Tigers must produce better numbers at the plate to beat the Guardians in Game 1. Skubal is a terrific postseason pitcher but unless he gets enough run support from the offense, Detroit will be in a rough spot in this game.
The Tigers played so bad in September that many analysts and bettor no longer expect them to come out of this wild card series. Of course, weird thing happen in October. Let's see how this series transpire. But for this particular game, the Guardians seem to have a little bit of edge.
Our betting prediction for the Detroit Tigers vs. the Cleveland Guardians: the Guardians will win.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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