ATP - Rolex Paris Masters
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by Lou Aguila in Rolex Paris Masters Picks
Fresh off his first ATP 500 championship run, Brazilian wunderkind Joao Fonseca will now attempt to play for the prestigious ATP 1000 title starting in Tuesday’s rematch with Denis Shapovalov in the first round of the 2025 Paris Masters.
Current Form:
Fonseca is listed as a slight favorite at -165 in his second tussle with a vengeful Shapovalov in a week. These two met for the first time in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Swiss Indoors Basel, where Fonseca showcased grit and composure to pull a come-from-behind win over the Canadian vet 3-6, 6-3, 4-1 ret. Fonseca would go on to earn two more wins after that encounter to capture his first indoor hard-court title on the ATP Tour.
Shapovalov seeks payback after falling to the Brazilian teenager several days ago. Ranked No.24 in the world, the Canadian has gone deep into his last two tournaments, reaching the semifinal at the 2025 Nordic Open in Stockholm and the quarterfinals in Basel. Shapovalov is 9-2 in indoor play in 2025.
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Denis Shapovalov vs Joao Fonseca Form
Denis Shapovalov and Joao Fonseca Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Oct 24, 2025 - Swiss Indoors ATP Basel
Oct 23, 2025 - Swiss Indoors ATP Basel
Oct 21, 2025 - Swiss Indoors ATP Basel
Oct 18, 2025 - Stockholm Open
Oct 17, 2025 - Stockholm Open
Oct 15, 2025 - Stockholm Open
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Oct 26, 2025 - Swiss Indoors ATP Basel
Oct 25, 2025 - Swiss Indoors ATP Basel
Oct 24, 2025 - Swiss Indoors ATP Basel
Oct 23, 2025 - Swiss Indoors ATP Basel
Oct 21, 2025 - Swiss Indoors ATP Basel
Oct 14, 2025 - Brussels Open
Denis Shapovalov against Joao Fonseca : Head to Head (H2H)
Oct 24, 2025 - Swiss Indoors ATP Basel
Denis Shapovalov - Joao Fonseca Key Points
- Denis Shapovalov reached the quarterfinals of the 2025 Swiss Indoors Basel.
- Denis Shapovalov is 9-2 in indoor matches in 2025.
- Joao Fonseca is 5-2 in indoor matches in 2025.
- Joao Fonseca won the 2025 Swiss Indoors Basel.
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Our Denis Shapovalov vs Joao Fonseca Prediction
Fearless Forecast: This might be an unpopular pick, but I am betting on Shapovalov to cover +3.5 games. Hot off a title, Fonseca faces massive expectations to perform well in the final ATP 1000 event of the year. However, the young Brazilian will also have to deal with fatigue as he’s scheduled to play his sixth match in eight days on Tuesday. A fresher and more motivated Shapovalov poses a tough test for Fonseca, who is 13-6 in first-round matches this year. Although Shapovalov stands as a more valuable pick at +125 moneyline, Fonseca’s ability to pull wins out of nowhere prevents me from going all in on the Canadian veteran.
Our betting prediction for Denis Shapovalov vs. Joao Fonseca: Denis Shapovalov will cover +3.5 GamesDraftKings Touchdown Draw
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
