Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul Prediction & Picks - ATP Shanghai Masters
ATP - ATP Shanghai Masters
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP Shanghai Masters Picks
Armed with an unreturnable serve and a 3-0 head-to-head record on hard courts, Daniil Medvedev emerges as a valuable play at +125 to win in straight sets against Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals of the 2026 Shanghai Masters.
Current Form:
Daniil Medvedev barged into the quarterfinals of the 2026 Shanghai Masters with a hard-earned straight-set win over Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4, 7-5. Medvedev fired 8 aces and won 85 percent of his first serves to hold all his service games. He also broke Tsitsipas twice, including a clutch break in the 11th game of the deciding set. Medvedev is looking for his third consecutive semifinal appearance on the ATP Tour.
Tommy Paul has stormed into the quarterfinals of the 2026 Shanghai Masters in terrific form after sweeping his first three opponents. Paul dispatched Adolfo Vallejo 6-2, 6-2, defending champion Valentin Vacherot 6-4, 6-2, and Zizou Bergs 7-6, 6-2.
The Matchup: Medvedev is 3-1 head-to-head vs. Paul, with the only loss to the American coming on clay.
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Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul Form
Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul Latest Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
Oct 14, 2026 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Oct 12, 2026 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Oct 10, 2026 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Oct 4, 2026 - ATP Beijing Open
Oct 3, 2026 - ATP Beijing Open
Oct 2, 2026 - ATP Beijing Open
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Oct 14, 2026 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Oct 12, 2026 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Oct 10, 2026 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Sep 30, 2026 - ATP Japan Open
Sep 6, 2026 - ATP US Open
Sep 4, 2026 - ATP US Open
Daniil Medvedev against Tommy Paul : Head to Head (H2H)
75 %
25 %
Mar 12, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells
May 14, 2024 - ATP Italian Open
Mar 16, 2024 - ATP Indian Wells
Sep 29, 2023 - ATP Beijing Open
Daniil Medvedev - Tommy Paul Key Points
- Daniil Medvedev is 3-0 vs. Tommy Paul on hard courts
- Daniil Medvedev eyes his third semifinal appearance on the ATP Tour
- Tommy Paul's only win over Daniil Medvedev happened at the 2024 Rome Masters
- Tommy Paul is 3-3 vs. top-10 players in 2026
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Our Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul Prediction
The Difference Maker: Medvedev is winning a staggering 84.4 percent of his first serves in Shanghai. He has only faced 10 breakpoints and conceded three service games while averaging 11 aces per match.
Paul has already faced 21 breakpoints, saving 17 of them. He has also converted 12 of 20 break chances in the tournament.
What to Expect: Medvedev’s head-to-head superiority, especially on hard courts, and an unbreakable serve make the Russian a hands-down favorite to win in straight sets against Paul.
The last time these two faced each other in a hard-court match, Medvedev demolished Paul 6-4, 6-0 at the 2025 Indian Wells Open.
Our betting prediction for Tommy Paul vs. Daniil Medvedev: Daniil Medvedev -1.5 Sets
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
