CF Cruz Azul vs Deportivo Toluca FC Prediction & Picks - Liga MX

Mexico - Liga MX

CF Cruz Azul
8/23/25 23:05
Deportivo Toluca FC

Prediction:

 

Under 2.5

+140
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 by Erik Gibbs in Liga MX Picks

Cruz Azul have been among the division’s best sides in the early Apertura as they prepare for Toluca this Saturday. Second in the table with an 11-point tally from five outings (3 wins, 2 draws), they have been in good shape: e.g., they have bagged clean sheets vs. Necaxa and vs. León and secured draws on the road at difficult stops like Monterrey.

Offensively, they have ridden the form of star striker Adolfo “Fito” Sepúlveda, who already leads the league with 5 goals in five games. Midfielder Christian Rodríguez has scored 3 goals so far. The team has a possession style of football and has remained unbeaten so far.

They also recently moved on in a knockout competition (Leagues Cup) by defeating Tigres and Pumas, demonstrating assurance in both local and foreign competitions. Overall, Cruz Azul are in good shape and have momentum in their favor as they enter this game at the Estadio Azteca.

Deportivo Toluca are also at the top with 10 points (3-1-1). They have won three straight games recently and look resurgent under manager Ignacio Ambriz.

Toluca’s strength comes from a balanced attack: Brazilian Helinho (a creative winger) has scored 3 goals in four matches, and forward Paulinho has added 2 more.

CF Cruz Azul vs Deportivo Toluca FC Form

Table

Teams Pts P W D L GD
3
CF Cruz Azul
CF Cruz Azul
11 5 3 2 0 5
5
Deportivo Toluca FC
Deportivo Toluca FC
10 5 3 1 1 5

CF Cruz Azul and Deportivo Toluca FC Latest Matches

CF Cruz Azul
CF Cruz Azul Latest matches
W L D D W W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4.33 Total goals
83% BTTS
2 Goals scored
2.33 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Aug 16, 2025 - Liga MX

CF Cruz Azul
3 :  2
Club Santos Laguna

Aug 11, 2025 - Liga MX

Atletico San Luis
1 :  2
CF Cruz Azul

Aug 7, 2025 - Leagues Cup

CF Cruz Azul
2 :  2
Colorado Rapids

Aug 3, 2025 - Leagues Cup

Los Angeles Galaxy
1 :  1
CF Cruz Azul

Jul 31, 2025 - Leagues Cup

CF Cruz Azul
0 :  7
Seattle Sounders

Jul 26, 2025 - Liga MX

CF Cruz Azul
4 :  1
Club Leon
L D W L D W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
2.33 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Aug 16, 2025 - Liga MX

CF Cruz Azul
3 :  2
Club Santos Laguna

Aug 7, 2025 - Leagues Cup

CF Cruz Azul
2 :  2
Colorado Rapids

Jul 31, 2025 - Leagues Cup

CF Cruz Azul
0 :  7
Seattle Sounders

Jul 26, 2025 - Liga MX

CF Cruz Azul
4 :  1
Club Leon

Jul 12, 2025 - Liga MX

CF Cruz Azul
0 :  0
Mazatlan FC

Jul 6, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

CF Cruz Azul
1 :  2
Mazatlan FC
W L D D D W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.83 Total goals
100% BTTS
2 Goals scored
1.83 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Aug 11, 2025 - Liga MX

Atletico San Luis
1 :  2
CF Cruz Azul

Aug 3, 2025 - Leagues Cup

Los Angeles Galaxy
1 :  1
CF Cruz Azul

Jul 19, 2025 - Liga MX

Atlas FC
3 :  3
CF Cruz Azul

Jun 27, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

CD Mineros De Zacatecas
2 :  2
CF Cruz Azul

May 18, 2025 - Liga MX

CF America
2 :  1
CF Cruz Azul

May 8, 2025 - Liga MX

Club Leon
2 :  3
CF Cruz Azul
Deportivo Toluca FC
Deportivo Toluca FC Latest matches
D W W W D D
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.33 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Aug 20, 2025 - Leagues Cup

Deportivo Toluca FC
0 :  0
Orlando City SC

Aug 16, 2025 - Liga MX

Deportivo Toluca FC
1 :  1
Pumas UNAM

Aug 11, 2025 - Liga MX

FC Juarez
0 :  2
Deportivo Toluca FC

Aug 5, 2025 - Leagues Cup

Deportivo Toluca FC
2 :  1
New York City

Aug 1, 2025 - Leagues Cup

Deportivo Toluca FC
2 :  1
CF Montreal

Jul 29, 2025 - Leagues Cup

Deportivo Toluca FC
2 :  2
Columbus Crew
L D W W D D
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals
83% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

Aug 20, 2025 - Leagues Cup

Deportivo Toluca FC
0 :  0
Orlando City SC

Aug 16, 2025 - Liga MX

Deportivo Toluca FC
1 :  1
Pumas UNAM

Aug 5, 2025 - Leagues Cup

Deportivo Toluca FC
2 :  1
New York City

Aug 1, 2025 - Leagues Cup

Deportivo Toluca FC
2 :  1
CF Montreal

Jul 29, 2025 - Leagues Cup

Deportivo Toluca FC
2 :  2
Columbus Crew

Jul 26, 2025 - Liga MX

Deportivo Toluca FC
3 :  4
Tigres UANL
L D D W W W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals
67% BTTS
2 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Aug 11, 2025 - Liga MX

FC Juarez
0 :  2
Deportivo Toluca FC

Jul 20, 2025 - Trofeo de Campeon de Campeones

CF America
1 :  3
Deportivo Toluca FC

Jul 16, 2025 - Liga MX

Club Santos Laguna
2 :  4
Deportivo Toluca FC

May 22, 2025 - Liga MX

CF America
0 :  0
Deportivo Toluca FC

May 14, 2025 - Liga MX

Tigres UANL
1 :  1
Deportivo Toluca FC

May 7, 2025 - Liga MX

Monterrey
3 :  2
Deportivo Toluca FC

CF Cruz Azul against Deportivo Toluca FC : Head to Head (H2H)

CF Cruz Azul

33 %

Draw

50 %

Deportivo Toluca FC

17 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

3
Total goals
83%
BTTS
1.67
Goals scored (Team 1)
1.33
Goals scored (Team 2)
50%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5

Apr 19, 2025 - Liga MX

Deportivo Toluca FC
2 :  2
CF Cruz Azul

Jul 20, 2024 - Liga MX

CF Cruz Azul
1 :  1
Deportivo Toluca FC

Apr 27, 2024 - Liga MX

Deportivo Toluca FC
0 :  1
CF Cruz Azul

Feb 12, 2023 - Liga MX

Deportivo Toluca FC
3 :  1
CF Cruz Azul

Feb 20, 2022 - Liga MX

Deportivo Toluca FC
1 :  4
CF Cruz Azul

Jul 27, 2019 - Liga MX

CF Cruz Azul
1 :  1
Deportivo Toluca FC

Deportivo Toluca FC v CF Cruz Azul last Lineups

CF Cruz Azul

Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1

23
K. Mier
15
I. Rivero
29
C. Rotondi
33
G. Piovi
193
K. Velazquez
4
W. Ditta
6
E. Lira
19
C. Rodriguez
9
A. Sepulveda
20
J. Paradela
7
M. Bogusz
9
A. Vega
11
Helinho
10
J. Angulo Uriarte
26
Paulinho
5
F. Romero
14
M. Ruiz
20
J. Gallardo
6
F. Pereira
4
B. Mendez
2
D. Barbosa
22
L. Garcia

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

Deportivo Toluca FC

Missing players

CF Cruz Azul
CF Cruz Azul
Midfielder

A. Montano

Deportivo Toluca FC
Deportivo Toluca FC

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato CF Cruz Azul
CD Huachipato Deportivo Toluca FC
Top Goalscorer
Mexico A. Sepulveda (18 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Portugal Paulinho (17 Goals)
Best assists
Argentina C. Rotondi (7 Assists)
Best assists
Mexico A. Vega (12 Assists)

CF Cruz Azul - Deportivo Toluca FC Key Points

  1. Cruz Azul are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
  2. Toluca are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
  3. The Over is 3-2 in Cruz Azul's last 5 games
  4. The Over is 5-0 in Toluca's last 5 games

Our CF Cruz Azul vs Deportivo Toluca FC Prediction

Midfielder Julio Angulo, an Ecuadorian on loan from Atlas, has also contributed. Defensively Toluca has been solid in their last wins, though earlier they had a draw and one loss. In their last match they won convincingly 2-0 over León (with goals from Helinho and Paulinho). Overall Toluca are dangerous on the break and set pieces, and are in good form, though not quite as consistent as Cruz Azul.

When comparing players, Cruz Azul’s Sepúlveda is a constant scoring threat – he has been clinical from all angles and will worry Toluca’s back line. Rodríguez’s creativity will also be a factor. Toluca counters with Helinho’s dribbling and finishing, and Paulinho’s powerful runs.

Toluca’s midfielders Nicolas Castro and Santiago Vera add creativity and assists. A key tactical note is that Cruz Azul play at high altitude (Mexico City), which historically can affect visiting teams. That might give Cruz Azul an edge.

On balance, Cruz Azul’s unbeaten record and the home advantage of the Azteca put them as slight favorites. However, Toluca’s strong offense means this should be competitive. Cruz Azul’s defense might be tested, but if Sepúlveda keeps scoring, they should prevail. Toluca will push hard and could score on a counter, but Cruz Azul look more likely to win on this occasion given current form. Our prediction for Cruz Azul vs Toluca: Under 2.5 goals.

Prediction:

 

Under 2.5

+140
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CF Cruz Azul vs Deportivo Toluca FC Picks