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by Erik Gibbs | in MLB Picks
Saturday’s matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park presents two teams heading in different directions in the standings, but both with something to prove. The Reds, now 60-57 after a narrow 3-2 loss on Friday, are clinging to hopes of staying in the NL Central race.
They sit in third place behind the Cubs and Brewers, but their recent slump — three straight losses while scoring just three total runs — is putting pressure on their playoff aspirations. After this series, they’ll return home to face a tough Philadelphia Phillies squad, making this game an important opportunity to regain momentum.
The Pirates, on the other hand, have long been out of postseason contention, sitting last in the NL Central at 51-66. Despite that, they’ve embraced the spoiler role and have been competitive lately, winning three of their last five games.
They opened the series Thursday with a dominant 7-0 shutout over Cincinnati and followed it up with Friday’s victory, building confidence in their ability to frustrate division rivals. While they won’t be chasing a playoff berth, they’re clearly motivated to disrupt the standings for others.
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Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Form
Table
| Teams | % | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
14
|
0.517 | 118 | 61 | 57 |
|
26
|
0.432 | 118 | 51 | 67 |
Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates Latest Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
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2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
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Cincinnati Reds against Pittsburgh Pirates : Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
67 %
Aug 8, 2025 - MLB
Aug 7, 2025 - MLB
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Cincinnati Reds - Pittsburgh Pirates Key Points
- The Pirates are 14-0 in their last 14 home games vs. teams with a winning record
- The Reds are 0-7 in their last 7 night games vs. NL teams after a road loss
- The Pirates are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games vs. teams with a winning record
- The Reds are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 night games vs. NL teams after a road loss
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Our Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
Cincinnati will turn to Nick Martinez on the mound. The right-hander enters at 9-9 with a 4.66 ERA and 93 strikeouts this season. Historically, he’s fared well against Pittsburgh, posting a 1-1 record with a sharp 1.20 ERA and 13 strikeouts in his career versus the Pirates.
However, his road numbers tell a different story — over 60.2 innings away from home, Martinez has allowed a 4.90 ERA and a .294 opponent batting average, showing he’s been hittable when pitching in hostile environments.
Pittsburgh counters with Braxton Ashcraft, a reliever making a spot start. Ashcraft has been solid in limited action this year, going 3-2 with a 3.24 ERA and 28 strikeouts. This will be his first career appearance against the Reds. While he’s had a couple of shaky outings recently, allowing runs in his last 4.1 innings, he was dominant in the five appearances before that, recording four scoreless outings. His ERA and WHIP (1.38) are both better than Martinez’s seasonal numbers, giving the Pirates a fighting chance if their bullpen can back him up.
For Cincinnati, the key will be reigniting their offense, which has gone cold at the worst possible time. For Pittsburgh, the challenge lies in containing a lineup that can explode if given the chance. Given the Reds’ current slump and Ashcraft’s potential to surprise in his first look against them, the Pirates have a real shot to extend their mini-run.
The Reds’ turnaround will come eventually — but the momentum heading into Saturday leans toward the home team. Our prediction for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: Pirates to win.
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