Chelsea vs PSG Prediction & Picks - Champions League

Europe - Champions League

Chelsea
3/17/26 16:00
PSG

Prediction:

 

PSG win the match

+195
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 by Carlos Zabala | in Champions League Picks

The reigning Club World Cup champions, Chelsea, are practically out of the Champions League after losing the first leg 5-2 to PSG in Paris, a match they twice managed to tie. While for Luis Enrique, the result renewed his and his players' confidence, for Liam Rosenior, it was the hardest blow since he took charge.

A historic comeback isn't impossible, but it would be even more surprising, given that Chelsea has only won one of their last five matches in regulation time. Advanced statistics sites give Chelsea a mere 7% chance of progressing. It's also true that Luis Enrique's PSG has become something of a nemesis for Premier League teams: in last season's Champions League, the Parisians eliminated Liverpool, Aston Villa, and Arsenal, and this season Tottenham fell victim to them twice.

Despite the result at the Parc des Princes, it's true that the match, especially the first half, slightly favored Chelsea. Even so, Luis Enrique's substitutions proved successful; Kvaratskhelia came on in the 62nd minute, replacing Doue, and did exactly what the Georgian manager wanted, becoming the best player on the pitch, scoring two goals and assisting Vitinha on the other.

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Chelsea vs PSG Form

Chelsea and PSG Latest Matches

Chelsea
Chelsea Latest matches
D L W W L L
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4 Total goals
83% BTTS
2 Goals scored
2 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

Mar 14, 2026 - Premier League

Chelsea
0 :  1
Newcastle

Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League

PSG
5 :  2
Chelsea

Mar 7, 2026 - FA Cup

Wrexham
2 :  4
Chelsea

Mar 4, 2026 - Premier League

Aston Villa
1 :  4
Chelsea

Mar 1, 2026 - Premier League

Arsenal
2 :  1
Chelsea

Feb 21, 2026 - Premier League

Chelsea
1 :  1
Burnley
W W W D D L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

Mar 14, 2026 - Premier League

Chelsea
0 :  1
Newcastle

Feb 21, 2026 - Premier League

Chelsea
1 :  1
Burnley

Feb 10, 2026 - Premier League

Chelsea
2 :  2
Leeds

Jan 31, 2026 - Premier League

Chelsea
3 :  2
West Ham

Jan 21, 2026 - Champions League

Chelsea
1 :  0
Pafos FC

Jan 17, 2026 - Premier League

Chelsea
2 :  0
Brentford
W W L W W L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4.83 Total goals
83% BTTS
3 Goals scored
1.83 Goals conceded
100% Over 2.5
0% Under 2.5

Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League

PSG
5 :  2
Chelsea

Mar 7, 2026 - FA Cup

Wrexham
2 :  4
Chelsea

Mar 4, 2026 - Premier League

Aston Villa
1 :  4
Chelsea

Mar 1, 2026 - Premier League

Arsenal
2 :  1
Chelsea

Feb 13, 2026 - FA Cup

Hull
0 :  4
Chelsea

Feb 7, 2026 - Premier League

Wolves
1 :  3
Chelsea
PSG
PSG Latest matches
W W D W L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4 Total goals
67% BTTS
2.5 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League

PSG
5 :  2
Chelsea

Mar 6, 2026 - Ligue 1

PSG
1 :  3
Monaco

Feb 28, 2026 - Ligue 1

Le Havre
0 :  1
PSG

Feb 25, 2026 - Champions League

PSG
2 :  2
Monaco

Feb 21, 2026 - Ligue 1

PSG
3 :  0
Metz

Feb 17, 2026 - Champions League

Monaco
2 :  3
PSG
D W W D L W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4.17 Total goals
67% BTTS
2.83 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League

PSG
5 :  2
Chelsea

Mar 6, 2026 - Ligue 1

PSG
1 :  3
Monaco

Feb 25, 2026 - Champions League

PSG
2 :  2
Monaco

Feb 21, 2026 - Ligue 1

PSG
3 :  0
Metz

Feb 8, 2026 - Ligue 1

PSG
5 :  0
Marseille

Jan 28, 2026 - Champions League

PSG
1 :  1
Newcastle
L W W L W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

Feb 28, 2026 - Ligue 1

Le Havre
0 :  1
PSG

Feb 17, 2026 - Champions League

Monaco
2 :  3
PSG

Feb 13, 2026 - Ligue 1

Rennes
3 :  1
PSG

Feb 1, 2026 - Ligue 1

Strasbourg
1 :  2
PSG

Jan 23, 2026 - Ligue 1

Auxerre
0 :  1
PSG

Jan 20, 2026 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
2 :  1
PSG

Chelsea against PSG : Head to Head (H2H)

Chelsea

50 %

Draw

0 %

PSG

50 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

5
Total goals
50%
BTTS
2.5
Goals scored
2.5
Goals conceded
100%
Over 2.5
0%
Under 2.5

Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League

PSG
5 :  2
Chelsea

Jul 13, 2025 - Club World Cup

Chelsea
3 :  0
PSG

Chelsea - PSG: Form Analysis

While PSG hasn't played since beating Chelsea last week, the Blues didn't even get a break at the weekend, losing 0-1 to a struggling Newcastle United in Matchday 30. This result has sabotaged the Blues' chances of a top-four finish in the Premier League, which would grant them Champions League qualification next season, and Liam Rosenior's tenure, which had started well, is beginning to falter in the eyes of a demanding London fanbase.

Last season, PSG won almost everything; this year, they're aiming for a similar result.

It was Chelsea who snatched the Club World Cup trophy from them in the final in New York. In March 2025, PSG had a very positive run, and this season they seem to be inspired when it matters most. Some said this season's PSG is weaker than last season's, but with the same players, PSG is the third favorite to win the Champions League, with odds of +650 on betting sites. Meanwhile, in Ligue 1, they will face Nice, looking to capitalize on the slip-up of their pursuer, Lens.

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Chelsea against PSG Lineups: Starting 11

Chelsea

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

1
R. Sanchez
23
T. Chalobah
19
M. Sarr
21
J. Hato
3
M. Cucurella
17
A. Santos
25
M. Caicedo
10
C. Palmer
8
E. Fernandez
7
P. Neto
20
Joao Pedro
29
B. Barcola
10
O. Dembele
7
K. Kvaratskhelia
87
J. Neves
17
Vitinha
33
W. Zaire-Emery
25
N. Mendes
51
W. Pacho
5
Marquinhos
2
A. Hakimi
39
M. Safonov

Formation : 4 - 3 - 3

PSG

Substitutes

Chelsea
Chelsea
Goalkeeper

T. Sharman-Lowe

M. Merrick

Defender

J. Acheampong

M. Sarr 46'

W. Fofana

T. Adarabioyo

M. Cucurella 71'

Midfielder

R. Lavia

E. Fernandez 60'

Forward

L. Delap

Joao Pedro 59'

A. Garnacho

C. Palmer 59'

R. Kavuma-Mcqueen

M. Guiu

S. Mheuka

Estevao

PSG
PSG
Goalkeeper

L. Chevalier

R. Marin

Defender

Beraldo

I. Zabarnyi

L. Hernandez

N. Mendes 66'

Midfielder

D. Fernandez

S. Mayulu

J. Neves 46'

L. Kang-in

K. Kvaratskhelia 73'

Forward

D. Doue

B. Barcola 59'

I. Mbaye

G. Ramos

O. Dembele 67'

Missing players

Chelsea
Chelsea
Goalkeeper

F. Jorgensen

Defender

R. James

L. Colwill

Forward

M. Mudryk

J. Gittens

PSG
PSG
Midfielder

F. Ruiz

Forward

Q. Ndjantou

Chelsea & PSG Squad Analysis

PSG arrives rested, and there's no reason to believe that, with a three-goal advantage, they will make too many changes to the lineup. However, Kvaratskhelia could start this time instead of Doue. It's the difficult decision that the PSG coach has to make daily: choosing just three of the five-star strikers in his squad. It's almost certain that Dembélé and Barcola will feature on Tuesday. As for injuries, the Spanish manager has only two concerns, one of them being Fabián Ruiz.

Meanwhile, Chelsea's English manager is dealing with a list of up to seven injured players, including Estevao.

For now, Pedro Neto hasn't been punished for his altercation with a ball boy, and it's believed he'll play at Stamford Bridge alongside Palmer, who had a lackluster performance in Paris. Estevao, the Brazilian teenager, is one of the players absent from the Blues' lineup.

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Chelsea
CD Huachipato PSG
Top Goalscorer
Argentina E. Fernandez (3 Goals) , 
Brazil Estevao (3 Goals) , 
Brazil Joao Pedro (3 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Georgia K. Kvaratskhelia (10 Goals)
Best assists
England R. James (2 Assists) , 
Argentina E. Fernandez (2 Assists) , 
England C. Palmer (2 Assists)
Best assists
Georgia K. Kvaratskhelia (7 Assists)

Chelsea - PSG Key Points

  1. PSG scored 5 goals from 8 shots on target against Chelsea in the first leg
  2. In the Champions League, Chelsea has not won any of their last 5 matches against PSG
  3. PSG has won 4 of their last 5 matches against Premier League opponents
  4. In the first leg, PSG completed 88% of their attempted passes against Chelsea
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Our Chelsea vs PSG Prediction

Chelsea, at least in the Club World Cup when Maresca was still in charge, tactically played an almost perfect game against PSG. Liam Rosenior didn't replicate that; on the contrary, he made mistakes in his defensive approach, but defenders Cucurella, Chalobah, and Fofana also looked out of sorts, lost on the pitch; at least Malo Gusto had a fantastic game.

That said, PSG should play on the Parisians' desperation, and, being rested, they could take advantage of a Chelsea side that has also struggled to find its footing in the Premier League. A PSG victory offers good value at betting sites.

Our prediction for Chelsea vs PSG is: PSG to win.

Prediction:

 

PSG win the match

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Chelsea vs PSG - Other Interesting Picks

Over 3.5

Odds +104
If Chelsea wants to stage an epic comeback, they must adopt a completely offensive approach from the first minute. They could very well find the net with their in-form forwards. However, this approach also invites PSG's fast-paced counter-attacking style to score as well.
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Cole Palmer to score or assist

Odds -125
Cole Palmer has had a couple of lackluster matches lately, but he typically bounces back quickly, especially at Stamford Bridge in front of his home fans; he is likely to contribute with a goal or an assist on Tuesday.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Chelsea vs PSG Picks