CF Pachuca vs Deportivo Toluca FC Prediction & Picks - Liga MX
Mexico - Liga MX
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by Erik Gibbs | in Liga MX Picks
CF Pachuca and Deportivo Toluca FC are set to square off this Sunday at the Estadio Hidalgo in a matchup that carries massive implications for the upper bracket of the Clausura 2026 table. As the campaign nears its critical final stretch, both clubs find themselves at a crossroads where a single result could define their trajectory heading into the Liguilla. Pachuca enters this clash following a resilient 1-1 draw away at Atlético San Luis on March 14, a match where they displayed their trademark grit by snatching a point in the dying seconds.
Prior to that, the Tuzos managed to secure vital home victories, defeating both Puebla and Necaxa with identical 2-1 scorelines in early March. While Guillermo Almada's men suffered a minor setback in a narrow loss to Mazatlán in late February, their overall performance at the Hidalgo has been formidable. They have successfully turned their home ground into a fortress, relying on a high-intensity press and a blend of experienced leaders and hungry academy products to stifle even the league's most potent offenses.
Deportivo Toluca FC, the reigning champions of Mexican football, arrives in Pachuca as arguably the most feared side in the division. The Diablos Rojos have been in scintillating form, underscored by a dominant 4-0 victory over San Diego FC in the CONCACAF Champions Cup just this past Wednesday. Domestically, they were held to a 1-1 draw by Atlas on March 15, but their previous results, including a 3-1 win over FC Juárez and a thrilling 3-2 away triumph against Pumas UNAM, highlight a squad that is firing on all cylinders. Toluca's tactical flexibility under Antonio Mohamed has been their greatest asset, allowing them to control possession while remaining lethal on the counter-attack.
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CF Pachuca vs Deportivo Toluca FC Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
31 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | +6 |
|
5
|
30 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | +12 |
CF Pachuca and Deportivo Toluca FC Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 14, 2026 - Liga MX
Mar 7, 2026 - Liga MX
Mar 3, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 27, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 20, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 14, 2026 - Liga MX
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 7, 2026 - Liga MX
Mar 3, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 14, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 7, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 18, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 13, 2026 - Liga MX
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 14, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 27, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 20, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 1, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 10, 2026 - Liga MX
Dec 29, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 18, 2026 - Concachampions
Mar 14, 2026 - Liga MX
Mar 11, 2026 - Concachampions
Mar 8, 2026 - Liga MX
Mar 3, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 28, 2026 - Liga MX
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 18, 2026 - Concachampions
Mar 14, 2026 - Liga MX
Mar 8, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 28, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 13, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 7, 2026 - Liga MX
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 11, 2026 - Concachampions
Mar 3, 2026 - Liga MX
Feb 21, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 30, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 17, 2026 - Liga MX
Jan 10, 2026 - Liga MX
CF Pachuca against Deportivo Toluca FC : Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
33 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
Oct 26, 2025 - Liga MX
Mar 29, 2025 - Liga MX
Sep 17, 2024 - Liga MX
Mar 30, 2024 - Liga MX
Sep 3, 2023 - Liga MX
Feb 19, 2023 - Liga MX
CF Pachuca against Deportivo Toluca FC Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
J. Eulogio
DefenderR. Lopez
J. Berlanga
C. Alfaro
P. Pedraza
A. Bautista
E. Montiel
G. Alvarez
E. Valencia
L. Quinones
L. Garcia
DefenderLuan
D. Barbosa
M. Isais
A. Briseno
MidfielderF. Arce
S. Cordova
J. Diaz
O. Virgen
F. Rossi
Missing players
A. Micolta
M. Ruiz
Most goals and assists
CF Pachuca
Deportivo Toluca FC
S. Rondon
(5 Goals)
, 
R. Kenedy
(5 Goals)
, 
V. Guzman
(5 Goals)
Paulinho
(6 Goals)
A. Dominguez
(4 Assists)
,
V. Guzman
(4 Assists)
,
B. Garcia
(4 Assists)
J. Gallardo
(4 Assists)
CF Pachuca - Deportivo Toluca FC Key Points
- The Over is 3-2 in Pachuca's last 5 games
- The Over is 4-1 in Toluca's last 5 games
- Pachuca are 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games
- Toluca are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
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Our CF Pachuca vs Deportivo Toluca FC Prediction
Few players are as hot as Toluca's Paulinho and Canelo Angulo. Paulinho has been a constant threat, finding the net in the continental blowout against San Diego and maintaining his status as the league's premier marksman. Angulo is fresh off a brilliant two-goal performance in mid-week, proving he is a nightmare for defenders to track when he drifts inside. Alexis Vega has also been instrumental, providing the creative vision that unlocks deep-seated defenses.
However, Toluca faces a significant setback with the loss of midfield engine Marcel Ruiz, who is out with a season-ending ACL injury, alongside Santiago Simón, who remains a doubt with a nagging knock. For Pachuca, Salomón Rondón remains the primary threat after his dramatic equalizer against San Luis, supported by the industrious Kenedy on the wing. The Tuzos are dealing with their own injury crisis, however, as they will be missing the defensive stability of Alan Mozo and Andrés Micolta.
Toluca holds the upper hand despite the challenges of the altitude in Pachuca. Their offensive depth is currently unparalleled in Liga MX, and their ability to produce goals from multiple sources makes them difficult to bet against, even without the presence of Ruiz in the middle. Pachuca is a stubborn opponent at home. However, the sheer clinical edge of the reigning champions suggests they have the tactical advantage to take all three points in a high-quality affair. Our prediction for CF Pachuca vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Over 2.5 goals.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
